Invest 92L in SW Atlantic reached SE US Fri

[Normandy]

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I see what you’re saying, though I think I’d like for it to be more organized. Also, recon is pushed to ~8am per one of the flight mets on Twitter. 

Oof.  Interesting times ahead.  It’s closer to radar and looking very, very interesting. 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms persists 
with an area of low pressure located around 225 miles east of 
Jacksonville, Florida. However, it is unclear if the system 
possesses a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental 
conditions remain marginally conducive for some additional 
development, and this system could become a short-lived tropical 
depression as the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The 
system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or 
the Georgia coast later today, and interests there should monitor 
the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system later this morning, if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Normandy]

I think once it gets within radar range and velocities start coming in they upgrade.  that or when recon gets there in a few hours.  Its an obvious TC though, its just how strong of a TS is it.  its small as shit tho, Marco level small.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon is in there and with a much more defined center, persistent convection, and SFMR around 34kts, I think this is a TS. 

[WxWatcher007]

To be sure, it’s far from the prettiest, but I think there’s enough to be designated. 

[jbenedet]

closed LLC is not the limiting factor - it's dry air.

We have the low level vorticity to work with, for sure. But we don't classify naked swirls for a reason....So from NHC standpoint - challenge is to see that this thing can maintain convection over the LLC to promote positive feedback and cause minimal TS conditions at the warned areas upon landfall...

[WxWatcher007]

It’s had persistent convection for well over the past day I believe and has organized a tighter circulation since then. Yesterday it was barely closed so I understood keeping it an invest. Today even with more ragged convection I think it meets the criteria even if the center is a bit displaced. I don’t think this is merely a surface trough. 

[GaWx]

 This is the closest offshore buoy to 92L, near 28.9N, 78.5W, vs 92L being roughly 30N, 79.5W, meaning the buoy is ~100 miles SE of 92L. That may be too far away to be of value due to the tiny size of 92L. Fwiw, it has 10 knot S winds, SLP of 1019 mb, dewpoint of 76F, and RH of 89%:

Station 41010

NDBC
Location: 28.878N 78.467W
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 13:10:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.08 in
Air Temperature: 79.9 F
Dew Point: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 80.6 F

[GaWx]

92L is now roughly centered over the Gulf Stream. So, SSTs have risen from yesterday’s ~81F to about the warmest to be crossed or in the 83-84F range. These warmest waters extend W to ~80 west long. Then they cool back to 81-2F to the coast.

[olafminesaw]

Seems to be getting hit with some more substantial shear this morning 

[WxWatcher007]

We have a center fix

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 14:02Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 13:37:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30.37N 79.52W
B. Center Fix Location: 122 statute miles (196 km) to the NE (49°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1014mb (29.95 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29kts (33.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the W (274°) of center fix at 13:29:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 24° at 33kts (From the NNE at 38.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the WNW (290°) of center fix at 13:20:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 37kts (42.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 13:40:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 33kts (From the SSE at 38.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 3 nautical miles to the ENE (69°) of center fix at 13:39:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 416m (1,365ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 423m (1,388ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) which was observed 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the WNW (290°) from the flight level center at 13:20:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet

 

 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We have a center fix

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 14:02Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 13:37:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30.37N 79.52W
B. Center Fix Location: 122 statute miles (196 km) to the NE (49°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1014mb (29.95 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29kts (33.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the W (274°) of center fix at 13:29:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 24° at 33kts (From the NNE at 38.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the WNW (290°) of center fix at 13:20:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 37kts (42.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 13:40:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 33kts (From the SSE at 38.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 3 nautical miles to the ENE (69°) of center fix at 13:39:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 416m (1,365ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 423m (1,388ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) which was observed 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the WNW (290°) from the flight level center at 13:20:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet

 

 

 So, center is on the far N edge of the main convection. Is this organized enough to warrant TD status?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I think it ties Alicia for highest pressure if it gets a name at 1014 mb.  There may be a decimal I don't remember.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I think it ties Alicia for highest pressure if it gets a name at 1014 mb.  There may be a decimal I don't remember.

It is quite a high pressure

[WxWatcher007]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure 
system over the southwestern Atlantic (AL92).

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Updated:  Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance 
aircraft and visible satellite imagery indicate that the area of 
low pressure located about 120 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, 
has developed a well-defined center of circulation and is 
producing winds to near 35 mph, but the associated showers and 
thunderstorms are not quite organized enough for this system to be 
considered a tropical cyclone.  However, only a small increase in 
the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in 
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it 
reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and 
interests there should monitor its progress.  For more information, 
refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather 
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

To @jbenedet’s point—they want to see more. 

[GaWx]

New convection has popped up since the special TWO was released and is very close to the center, which is now over the Gulf Stream with its 83-84F SSTs. Is that enough to go TD?

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

New convection has popped up since the special TWO was released and is very close to the center, which is now over the Gulf Stream with its 83-84F SSTs. Is that enough to go TD?

Given the special TWO, I’m guessing they will want to see convection organize for a few hours. 2pm may be the next opportunity for a designation?

It’s also curious that we’re talking about a TD when unflagged TS force SFMR were recorded. Of course, those could just be gusts that are discounted until there are more uniform FL/SFMR above 35kt. 

 

[Normandy]

NHC classification policy is odd.  It’s an obvious sheared TD / TS

[Retrobuc]

Im near Daytona Beach and other than rough surf, there have been a few showers and even periods of sun.  

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

34 minutes ago, Normandy said:

NHC classification policy is odd.  It’s an obvious sheared TD / TS

I stopped subscribing a decade ago, but Joe Bastardi has what is usually a conspiracy theory, but might be holding true in this case.  They did not do PTC2 yesterday/early this morning.  Unless 92L really forces their hand by showing up as a tight spiral on radar, classifying it now means no going PTC last night/early morning was a mistake.

 

Bastardi disagrees with NHC on all kinds of things, I've seen some unnamed storm off SEUSA which the NHC declared after recon showed no wind shifts/change in T/Td as being frontal, I think he was right, I looked at the HDOBS and plots.  He may have had a point that Sandy should have been held as a hurricane to the New Jersey coast, it still had some tropical features.  Somewhere in Suffolk actually verified 64 knots sustained just before the post-tropical declaration, Bastardi argued the downgrade was to avoid a hurricane verification in an unwarned area.  I know its policy post Sandy to issue warnings for storms expected to go post-tropical, I think NHC might have dropped the ball.

 

I checked JB yesterday, he was complaining about wind radii.  Everything is a government plot.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

That is a somewhat sheared TD on the cusp of being a TS based on recon and current vis satellite.

 

[WxWatcher007]

It looks like a standard sheared TC to me. These things can get subjective though. Not issuing a PTC is telling imo. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It looks like a standard sheared TC to me. These things can get subjective though. Not issuing a PTC is telling imo. 

Just like that the entire LLC is exposed again.

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data 
indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a 
well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles 
east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary 
organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone.  
Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that 
winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low.  Only a 
small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms 
could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression 
before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia 
tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress.  For more 
information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local 
National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Maybe a post-season upgrade to keep the science right, but at this point, it will not be upgraded even if it wraps convection completely.  Off to Twitter to see if Bastardi is having another angry reaction.  It looks to me like a badly sheared TC.

 

Bastardo has the same meaning in Italian and Spanish, Bastardi is the Italian plural.  Le Batard is French.  What the Romance languages have against illegitimate children, I'll never know.

[Normandy]

Yep it just got beheaded.  Def was a TC last night tho

[Kevin Reilly]

49 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Yep it just got beheaded.  Def was a TC last night tho

Yep, this is pretty much done.  Northerly shear coming down from the upper air low to the north also dry air moving south-southwest quickly. 

[GaWx]

 An outer band of Invest 92L showers came through here a couple of hours ago. The rain wasn’t heavy and it didn’t last long. Interesting to see though.

 It is breezy today with ENE winds but less windy than the E winds of the last few days. The sky has had a tropical partly to mostly cloudy look today. 92L has helped to bring in higher dewpoints today of 70s vs mid 60s the last few days.