GaWx Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 The area in the SW Atlantic being watched since the weekend was designated Invest 92L earlier this evening. This evening’s TWO also raised odds of TCG back up from 20% to the Saturday max of 30%. Although several models had this as either a TD or TS landfalling in the SE US Thu/Fri on at least one run on Saturday (GFS/Euro/UKMET/ICON) and the GFS continued that into Sunday, no model has shown a TC for the last couple of days. Instead they all have been showing either a very weak LLC or just a trough. Since this is likely headed toward (fairly close to) my general area and will probably give me at least a little rain late week, I’m following this pretty closely despite odds still being pretty low for TCG. Even if it there’s no TCG, it will still be interesting to track. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Alberto, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Thanks. As I see it, the well defined center has an uphill fight against shear and then dry air as it approaches the coast. Small systems can trend stronger or weaker very quickly however, so this is definitely an interesting one to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 This is gonna be beryl. Well defined center with some convection getting going. Any kind of sustained convection and it’s instant classification 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Now up to 40% as of 8AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Recon is on the way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Yea this has really caught my eye. Looks pretty good on the visible satellite you can clearly see a circulation. Looks like thunderstorms are trying to blow up on the west and northwest side of this circulation. If these storms can wrap around that center this will likely become Tropical Storm Beryl. I was looking at water vapor and it has a decent moisture envelope with it dry air shouldn't be a problem shear for now looks okay. Florida Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 It’ll be good to see what recon finds. I’m not entirely sure it’s fully closed off, but shear has dropped significantly and there’s a little bit of time. Dry air is an issue, especially on the southern side, but convection so far has held on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Recon closing in on the invest at a good time as there’s been persistent and deep convection near the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Recon on descent into the invest now. First thing to see is if we actually have a closed circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Speaking of recon, that looks like the EML. The dread cap that usually, except for this year, protects Houston from wide spread severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 They’re weak but there are some westerly winds showing up now per recon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They’re weak but there are some westerly winds showing up now per recon. For a June storm, impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 SSTs near the LLC are ~81-82F but rise to ~84 in the Gulf Stream, which is centered near 80W where this is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 It’s definitely trying. A bit messy with the circulation but consistent convection in what’s now a less sheared environment can definitely give it decent odds to develop before moving onshore tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the low pressure system northeast of the Bahamas. Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92) Updated: Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for further development and this system could become a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Thursday morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 I guess they didn't think a small area of 40 knots well NE of the weak and nebulous LLC warranted tropical storm watches/warnings, and thus no PTC. I'd think the PTC route now is the safest alternative, of course,, they have to balance that with not being the boy who cried wolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I guess they didn't think a small area of 40 knots well NE of the weak and nebulous LLC warranted tropical storm watches/warnings, and thus no PTC. I'd think the PTC route now is the safest alternative, of course,, they have to balance that with not being the boy who cried wolf. Maybe they don’t think it is capable of reaching TS status. If they currently think TD at most, would a PTC we warranted? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Upped from 40% to 50%: NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has written the last advisory on the remnants of Alberto, which are located inland over northeastern Mexico. 1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with the area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the northern Bahamas has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. However, earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicated that the system does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for additional development and this system could become a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday, and interests there should monitor the progress of the system. Another Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 92L is really overperforming imo when it comes to firing convection. If it can get a tighter LLC tonight and keep the convection firing it should become a TC. It’s a low shear environment with SSTs that will get warmer as 92L gets closer to shore. On the other hand, dry air continues to lurk to the south, and it needs to really consolidate the closed circulation. Tonight will be very interesting as it gets in radar range. Given the near coast TC genesis cases from the last few years, I do believe we get a quick named storm here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 It is getting better organized imo and we’re only a little after DMIN. In addition, it is headed toward significantly warmer SSTs in the Gulf Stream. SSTs where it is now (near 29N, 77W) are only ~81 F, but they rise to a peak of ~84 F in the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 NHC taking a gamble waiting on this. It’s a small system and can ramp up quickly. Don’t wanna wake up and have a random microcane slip under your nose. Circulation looks very stout now, albeit small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 The 18Z GFS progged IR satellite view for 9PM EDT isn’t anywhere close to the actual 9PM IR image! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Coming into radar view from Jacksonville. Like I said NHC better hurry or somebody is getting an unforecasted tropical storm tmr 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I don’t want to oversell it because it could still be disorganized under the hood, but this is impressive tonight. Very strong convection continues to fire, it’s hard to tell at this stage but it looks like it’s trying to establish some ventilation on the RGB water vapor (not pictured below) and it’s yet to cross the Gulf Stream, which may aid in continuing convection. What’s most impressive is 92L so far threading the needle in a very hostile moisture environment. @Kevin Reilly pointed it out earlier but the thunderstorms around 92L have thus far kept this insulated from dry air choking off the convective engine, and now we’re seeing a consolidation of those storms around what was a weak but closed circulation earlier. That’s really a feat that’s helped by being in a low shear/high SST environment. As this gets into radar range we’re obviously watching for a tighter LLC, but watch to see if there’s spiral banding ahead of the center getting into range. If so, that would be evidence that this has organized sufficiently to be designated as a TC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 The spiral banding is there. Check out radar out of Jacksonvile on radar pro. Showers moving due SSE ahead of the low. It’s small but it’s there and it’s not weak I think. If I were to guess recon find a strong tropical storm in a couple of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 A few hours old SSMIS pass... certainly a bit of organization there. Some curved banding band near the center, albeit on the ragged side. Tough miss from the most recent ASCAT, would have helped determine if there are substantial W winds. 92L is starting to come into view on KMLB which should be very illuminating in a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 23 minutes ago, Normandy said: The spiral banding is there. Check out radar out of Jacksonvile on radar pro. Showers moving due SSE ahead of the low. It’s small but it’s there and it’s not weak I think. If I were to guess recon find a strong tropical storm in a couple of hours I see what you’re saying, though I think I’d like for it to be more organized. Also, recon is pushed to ~8am per one of the flight mets on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 It looks like a bowling ball and it is definitely heading west. Someone needs to organize a contest in which we all guess what city the new 'Beryl' tropical system is going to make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 This appears to be the closest buoy to 92L with it at 28.9N, 78.5W or 120 nm E of Cape Canaveral. So, perhaps WSW of 92L’s center: Station 41010 NDBCLocation: 28.878N 78.467WDate: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 04:00:00 UTCWinds: ENE (60°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 ktAtmospheric Pressure: 30.06 in and risingAir Temperature: 79.0 FDew Point: 75.6 FWater Temperature: 80.6 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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