Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: That has got to be the broadest circulation I have ever seen in my lifetime. Looks like there may be just a bit of southerly shear just to the west of the center. This has a limited chance to develop into anything much larger than a 45-mph tropical storm. However, weather affects will be far removed from the center especially on the north and northwest side. Someone used to call these slop gyres, when the CAG was a big loosely organized circulation. This may be further N than I have ever seen an area of interest or Invest from the 'Slop Gyre'. Daya buoy 22nm/41 km from Galveston might verify the TS warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 Wish I had more time to post in here but I’ve been crazy busy. I’m guessing there will be low level recon rather than a survey tomorrow given the structure and landfall approach. 2 hours ago, CoralRed said: I do not know anything about hurricanes really. But it is both fascinating and scary to me that so many signs of an unusual season are present this year. Now here is another unusual element to add to the list of exceptional things going on. For years I used to live across from World Trade Center in downtown Jersey City. During Sandy we had water coming from two directions: east from the Hudson River and New York Harbor to our south. After that I have always wanted the ocean to stay in the ocean where it belongs. I miss the NYC area but boy oh boy am I glad I no longer live where I used to there. I'd worry all this summer about what might happen. To me, this is as blaring a signal for a hyperactive season as we can probably see at long range. I agree with @NorthHillsWx that seeing a ULAC is really uncommon, especially early in the season, but keep in mind that shear still kept 90L from developing in the Gulf not that long ago. It is very interesting to see the pattern over PTC One and the Gulf. Every part of the basin is primed to take off once climo becomes more favorable. The Gulf is really a spot to watch later. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Convection is flaring near and on top of the center. It's not a big one, but maybe just enough to get this one baptized 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 This looks like a tropical storm now. I bet we get a name. Still a broad circulation but convection probably fits criteria for our first name of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Alberto to be named as of 11AM advisory per bottom of this: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/bal012024.dat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 It does look more defined now. Should definitely be classified. I do wonder whether the deep convection east of the current center could trigger a reformation or wrap upshear with additional time and frictional convergence near landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It does look more defined now. Should definitely be classified. I do wonder whether the deep convection east of the current center could trigger a reformation or wrap upshear with additional time and frictional convergence near landfall. It’s amazing how the concave shape of the SW gulf seems to wrap up storms. The convection almost perfectly aligns with the coastline 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 And we officially have Alberto. Welcome to the party, 2024 Hurricane season. Gonna be a wild one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s amazing how the concave shape of the SW gulf seems to wrap up storms. The convection almost perfectly aligns with the coastline Always a good TC genesis bet down there between the concave shape and the absurdly warm waters most seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center. This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique. The system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto. Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb according to the dropsonde data. Some of the dropsonde and oil rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix efficiently down to the surface. Still, this could mean that gusty winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves inland through the day. Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or 270/8 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue for the next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S. builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time Thursday morning. Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30 degrees Celsius. However, the broad circulation will still likely limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the storm reaches land. There is some possibility of slight strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B models. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday. A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then. Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly, the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through Thursday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Some of those northern gulf rigs have been gusting 55-60 mph since yesterday. While I doubt that mixes down, it just shows that this storm has a very broad amount of energy. TS gusts showing up on multiple land based sites now in Texas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Aransas County in south central Texas... Southern Calhoun County in south Texas... * Until 1215 PM CDT. * At 1143 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 13 miles east of Lamar, or 16 miles east of Rockport, moving west at 30 mph. EDIT TO ADD: Off Jamaica Beach (the late Popo Party Pad) https://x.com/JordanHallWX/status/1803465736712511510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Some of those northern gulf rigs have been gusting 55-60 mph since yesterday. While I doubt that mixes down, it just shows that this storm has a very broad amount of energy. TS gusts showing up on multiple land based sites now in Texas To your point on broad. The wind here in Navarre has been sustained at 15-20 with a pretty regular gust pattern of 30+ since yesterday morning. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 It is trying to get that shrimp shape that means intensification isn't far off, although the shrimp is at an angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191448 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center. This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique. The system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto. Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb according to the dropsonde data. Some of the dropsonde and oil rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix efficiently down to the surface. Still, this could mean that gusty winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves inland through the day. Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or 270/8 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue for the next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S. builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time Thursday morning. Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30 degrees Celsius. However, the broad circulation will still likely limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the storm reaches land. There is some possibility of slight strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B models. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday. A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then. Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly, the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through Thursday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/191448.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 An amazing gradation of rainfall right through Houston with a band that isn't moving. A couple of brief heavier showers, but IMBY at the extreme edge of that band, mostly very light sprinkles. A patch of hazy blue sky shows some bigger cumulus E of here, a couple of more heavy showers possible, but I suspect DWH (Tomball) and IAH will be under half an inch. I think there will be big gradients even in S Texas, just checking the totals around CRP. EDIT TO ADD: Little vort maxes seem to be showing up on radar, one E of CRP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 As expected, we now have lower level recon rather than a survey, and Alberto is substantially more organized than it was just a few hours ago. Earlier survey Now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 There are some pretty strong FL winds found in the flight so far. 55kt FL peak and 41kt SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Hot towers going up around the center now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hot towers going up around the center now. ~-90C cloud tops- if this had organized a smidge early and had another half a day over water, this might have tried to be a hurricane. Winds near the center are just too weak for any chance of that happening in the next six or so hours. radar indicated tornado warned approaching San Perlita, the larger town Raymondville, just over 10k people, would be next. The times I wish I had RadarOmega or the GR radar apps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 50 knot LL winds. OT, why is 34 knots a gale and 50 knots a storm but 34 knots makes a tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Around 7" have fallen around here (I have found no official reading yet). It's still raining hard, and a rain band is well aligned to train over the city...that plus the orographic effect, I expect 3 or 4 more inches of rain, at least. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 The rain helps Tamps., NL and Coahuila, but it looks like not much rain will get to the DF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Don't look now but something is definitely percolating over the Campeche Region. This area and tropical weather are getting to be like the energizer bunny. It just keeps going and going and going and going and going..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 The highest reading is from a station in the Sierra, almost 25". Stations around the city vary from 11 to 18". With the highest amounts near the mountains. That's up to today 9am CDT. Today we still are having some rain, but not as heavy as yesterday. Interesting that the Tampico area has the lowest precipitation, being the landfall point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 22 Author Share Posted June 22 1 hour ago, wxmx said: The highest reading is from a station in the Sierra, almost 25". Stations around the city vary from 11 to 18". With the highest amounts near the mountains. That's up to today 9am CDT. Today we still are having some rain, but not as heavy as yesterday. Interesting that the Tampico area has the lowest precipitation, being the landfall point Not much of a break either right with the next one on deck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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