WxWatcher007 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 We have our first cherry of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season due to a growing signal for tropical genesis in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf. This soon to be invest comes from a monsoon gyre/CAG that has been in place over the Caribbean for a while now. With a large area of vorticity/disturbed weather over Central America/Yucatan, a broad low is expected to develop and move toward the coast. It's still unclear how far north the actual center goes, or how quickly something spins up, but the setup for heavy rain over Texas and much of the Gulf Coast is pronounced. As you can see below, life-threatening flash flooding is possible/occurring in Mexico (let's not forget about friends like @wxmx) and Central America. As for wind, the threat seems relatively low as rain is likely to be the predominant and most widespread impact, but we'll of course have to watch for how any broad low tightens up. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Just noticed a 90E on the Pacific side of the CAG. I can't see two systems developing that close to each other. 90E has broad turning already. Given the head start, I'd give it the nod. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=90E&product=vis EDIT TO ADD: Looking at low level vort, 90E might be what actually develops in the BoC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 I’m actually seeing more chances of the eastern lobe in the Carribean developing, swinging wnw around the top portion of the gyre, and then moving Slowly north into south Texas. The western lobe of the gyre has land interaction issues and will likely get pulled south very slowly while the eastern lobe rotates around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 0Z UKMET: a little further north than the 12Z run; still has a TS NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 23.6N 94.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.06.2024 60 23.5N 94.7W 998 35 0000UTC 20.06.2024 72 23.4N 95.6W 997 39 1200UTC 20.06.2024 84 24.9N 97.9W 999 38 0000UTC 21.06.2024 96 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Looks broad on models but chances still increasing for a TC: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. *This is now Invest 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17 Author Share Posted June 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Home grower season, right on schedule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 The best lower level rotation on radar is still over land. There does seem to be some rotation N of that over water, GFS suggests multiple centers. The overwater circulation has deeper convection and some lightning. The recon would have left half an hour ago per the POD, but I don't see any data. Suspect it has been cancelled. Tomorrow morning's recon might find something. The flooding may be between CRP and HOU if GFS is any guide. STX needs the rain, 2 and 3 out of 4 drought. They may not want 4 or 8 inches of rain in 2 days, but they need the rain. The reservoirs on the border are quite low. Amistad is 25%, Falcon is at an all time low 10%. Nuestra Señora del Refugio parish church in the not-so-drowned ghost town of Viejo Guerrero, Tamps., MX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17 Author Share Posted June 17 39 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: The best lower level rotation on radar is still over land. There does seem to be some rotation N of that over water, GFS suggests multiple centers. The overwater circulation has deeper convection and some lightning. The recon would have left half an hour ago per the POD, but I don't see any data. Suspect it has been cancelled. Tomorrow morning's recon might find something. The flooding may be between CRP and HOU if GFS is any guide. STX needs the rain, 2 and 3 out of 4 drought. They may not want 4 or 8 inches of rain in 2 days, but they need the rain. The reservoirs on the border are quite low. Amistad is 25%, Falcon is at an all time low 10%. Nuestra Señora del Refugio parish church in the not-so-drowned ghost town of Viejo Guerrero, Tamps., MX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 PTC 1 later this afternoon, if I had to guess I'd think they might want (with cooperation of SMN) TS watches for near Tampico to near the US border. Or they may decide watches for what will be a 40 kt. TS can wait another 12 hours. Edit to Add: NHC in the outlook is hinting at a PTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17 Author Share Posted June 17 3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: PTC 1 later this afternoon, if I had to guess I'd think they might want (with cooperation of SMN) TS watches for near Tampico to near the US border. Or they may decide watches for what will be a 40 kt. TS can wait another 12 hours. Edit to Add: NHC in the outlook is hinting at a PTC Was just about to post. This is a good use of the PTC designation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17 Author Share Posted June 17 Advisories coming at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 12Z UKMET: still has a TS NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 22.8N 91.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.06.2024 36 23.6N 92.6W 997 36 1200UTC 19.06.2024 48 23.6N 95.0W 997 36 0000UTC 20.06.2024 60 23.3N 95.2W 995 40 1200UTC 20.06.2024 72 25.1N 98.9W 998 39 0000UTC 21.06.2024 84 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan. —————- Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a central pressure near 1001 mb. The system currently does not have the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about 200-250 n mi northeast of the center. The various global models forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is required at this time. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The initial motion is 345/6. This general motion should continue for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic motion due to center reformation. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast. This should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h. While there are differences in details due to the disorganized nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario. The global models suggest that some deepening of the central pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone. Based on that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening. There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in about 36 h. However, there is a chance the system will never become a tropical cyclone. issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Certainly looks like a multi-year drought buster, from famine to feast, weather here knows no middle ground 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 5 minutes ago, wxmx said: Certainly looks like a multi-year drought buster, from famine to feast, weather here knows no middle ground Falcon Lake is at 10%. 100 mm/4 inches is a good thing except for the foothills of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Good to see you back. Unless this system organinzes and gets N of Corpus Christi, it won't have a concave coast aiding convergence, or the 40 knot forecasts are probably close. The lower pressure in the entire BoC is robbing gradient. I can see a 990mb 35 knot storm. KCRP is 1007 mb, that is pretty low to be that far from a tropical system. The low inland near Cd del Carmen is fading, I can see the rough outlines of where the low is forming now over water. I think it will be strong enough to avoid satellite cyclones as mentioned in the disco re: GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Starting to get some solid vorticity / rotation going over the Yucatán peninsula now. TC genesis likely imminent once it moves over water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 8 hours ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET: still has a TS NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 22.8N 91.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.06.2024 36 23.6N 92.6W 997 36 1200UTC 19.06.2024 48 23.6N 95.0W 997 36 0000UTC 20.06.2024 60 23.3N 95.2W 995 40 1200UTC 20.06.2024 72 25.1N 98.9W 998 39 0000UTC 21.06.2024 84 CEASED TRACKING 0Z UKMET: a little further S/still TS NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 22.5N 94.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.06.2024 36 22.5N 94.0W 999 31 0000UTC 20.06.2024 48 22.1N 95.5W 998 35 1200UTC 20.06.2024 60 23.0N 98.4W 1000 38 0000UTC 21.06.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 The sprawling nature of the cylcone will definitely hinder the development of something significant, but the fact that the eastern energy is taking control (you can see the smaller vorticity center west, near the Tamaulipas coast, caught in "orbit" of the stronger vorticity near the Yucatan) allows for much better mid/upper atmospheric conditions and more time over water to organize. It just needs more consistent convection near the eastern center to get a name. Also, the further east initial position will allow for more ridging to build in the SE US. I think this can get to a 45-55 kts TS, with a trending to faster organization/tightening just prior to landfall near Tampico (maybe a hair south of what the NHC is currently forecasting) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 It is pretty concerning to see this low shear environment over the GOM this early in the season. Not that this system will take advantage bc of its sprawling nature but that could be a bad sign down the road. Usually these early season GOM storms are quite sheared for all or most of their lifespans, this storm has a beautiful upper level anticyclone spanning the entire gulf 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Interestingly fwiw, the new UKMET (12Z) has no TC from this per their textual output for the first time in at least 5 runs. Not saying it will necessarily be right though. I suspect it’s going to be a borderline call either way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Recon validated NHC- no closed center yet. Also finding winds to minimal TS force well north of the “center” though we already had plenty of buoy and rig confirmation of those wind speeds. This will certainly bc a close call as to whether it becomes a TC or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Wind gusts not quite to gale force just ahead of the showers. Breezy outside of but near showers. RAP 925 mb winds about 25 knots locally. Euro has 30 to 40 knot 925 mb winds later tonight. Much lower 20 to 25 knots between CRP and BRO. Not an organized system. Euro is 2.7" PW, below the all rime record, for 12Z CRP. 2.87 is CRP does a special 18Z sounding. 2.77 for tomorrow's 0Z sounding. 2.92 tomorrow (Wednesday evening) at 0Z around CRP, but just below 2.8 at the actual site. Future Alberto may be a slop system, but a KCRP all time PW record makes the storm memorable. SPC has immediate coast (slightly larger area tomorrow) in a >2% tornado marginal. Small areas of TS winds right near the coast before and after landfall on HAFS, picking a few random locations in Tamps,, SBCAPE near 500 J/Kg and good speed shear just inland. Tornado risk will exist anywhere near the landfall. EDIT TO ADD: New advisory on PTC1 extends the TS watch to San Luis Pass. Toll bridge off Galveston island (sometimes on busy weekends 288 is the way to come back), the water moving through that ~1/2 mile pass is moving fast, sometimes with white water. FM 3005 looks like it will flood past the seawall, ditto the same highway except Brazoria CR 257. The late Popo's party pad is near FM 3005, it doesn't take much to get water over the road. Thankfully, the Mexican Fan Palm is salt tolerant. When downtown/Broadawy flooded in 2008, most of the decades old majestic trees didn't survive. But the palms did. Anyway, only 2 to 4 feet of rise is expected, but HGX says that will close the roads on the barrier islands and the Bolivar Peninsula. Popo's daughter and her husband have the pad, they don't have as many parties as Popo did before his health started to decline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 I'm surprised Alberto isn't retired after that epic flooding it created in 1994...I remember that. It was brutal. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 This is a closed circulation now, symmetrical, better organized, but it needs more convection near the center. Pretty big circulation, covers the whole GOM west of 88W 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 1 hour ago, wxmx said: This is a closed circulation now, symmetrical, better organized, but it needs more convection near the center. Pretty big circulation, covers the whole GOM west of 88W Hey wxmx, stay safe down there in Monterrey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 4 minutes ago, Jebman said: Hey wxmx, stay safe down there in Monterrey. Thanks Jeb. It definitely sinks in when your city is specifically mentioned in a Discussion Advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Lots of vorticity off the nw Yucatán right now. It’s pretty far south though so I’m not sure it swings far enough north to get to the US. Lots of heavy rain north of the center though with the individual lobes roaring around the dominant southern one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 On 6/18/2024 at 12:38 PM, NorthHillsWx said: It is pretty concerning to see this low shear environment over the GOM this early in the season. Not that this system will take advantage bc of its sprawling nature but that could be a bad sign down the road. Usually these early season GOM storms are quite sheared for all or most of their lifespans, this storm has a beautiful upper level anticyclone spanning the entire gulf [emphasis mine] I do not know anything about hurricanes really. But it is both fascinating and scary to me that so many signs of an unusual season are present this year. Now here is another unusual element to add to the list of exceptional things going on. For years I used to live across from World Trade Center in downtown Jersey City. During Sandy we had water coming from two directions: from the Hudson River to our east and New York Harbor to our south. After that I have always wanted the ocean to stay in the ocean where it belongs. I miss the NYC area but boy oh boy am I glad I no longer live where I used to there. I'd worry all this summer about what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 4 hours ago, wxmx said: This is a closed circulation now, symmetrical, better organized, but it needs more convection near the center. Pretty big circulation, covers the whole GOM west of 88W That has got to be the broadest circulation I have ever seen in my lifetime. Looks like there may be just a bit of southerly shear just to the west of the center. This has a limited chance to develop into anything much larger than a 45-mph tropical storm. However, weather affects will be far removed from the center especially on the north and northwest side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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