Geoboy645 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 As a corollary to the heatwave, the models have really honed in on a potentially significant flooding event across MN and N WI over the next 7 to 10 days. The WPC has a rare for the region Day 3 MDT for Flash Flooding on Monday, with quite a hefty discussion. They mention the possibility of a flash flooding event not seen in the region in at least the last 10 years within the MDT. Some runs have had as much as 10 inches of rain over the next 10 days in some areas. To make matters even worse, some areas of MN have received as much as 8 to 10 inches in the last month, with several streams at or near flood stage already. Talk about a far cry from the last three summers of flash drought in the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 50 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: As a corollary to the heatwave, the models have really honed in on a potentially significant flooding event across MN and N WI over the next 7 to 10 days. The WPC has a rare for the region Day 3 MDT for Flash Flooding on Monday, with quite a hefty discussion. They mention the possibility of a flash flooding event not seen in the region in at least the last 10 years within the MDT. Some runs have had as much as 10 inches of rain over the next 10 days in some areas. To make matters even worse, some areas of MN have received as much as 8 to 10 inches in the last month, with several streams at or near flood stage already. Talk about a far cry from the last three summers of flash drought in the region. Yeah, and this is just going to be a prelude to more down the road this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 0.94” of rain yesterday. We had a midnight high of 70 but it was stuck in the mid 60s all day. Different story today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 1.57” total precipitation last 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 3 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: 1.57” total precipitation last 24hrs. Picked up 0.26" from the edge of that rain complex yesterday. 2.50" for the month (4.23" June avg). Ground is moist, so we'll shall see what the next couple days bring. Good chance will meet the monthly avg by the middle of the week, if not much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Ready 2 flood. 0.35” today so far. All day washout incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Very hefty rainfall totals in northern Minnesota with a flash flood ongoing. Looks like 4-6” has fallen with more still to come NW of a line from Grand Rapids through Ely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted June 18 Author Share Posted June 18 Yeah I would not want to be in the eastern BWCAW rn. Areas N of Soudan have 7+" of rain according to KDLH. And there's FFW's all the way to the North Shore now. That is some terrain I would not want to be stuck in a flash flooding event while camping for sure. 49 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted June 18 Author Share Posted June 18 Some areas just W of the Sawtooths have had 2.5" of rain in the last hour. If those areas drain to the lake, ouch. I would not want to be on some of those streams for the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 2 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: Some areas just W of the Sawtooths have had 2.5" of rain in the last hour. If those areas drain to the lake, ouch. I would not want to be on some of those streams for the next few hours. Yes, everything just west of the Sawtooth Mtns drains into Superior. Lots of waterfalls and fast moving water up there as the terrain drops 1000’ in only a few miles. I wouldn’t want to be backpacking the Superior Hiking Trail, those bridges wash out all time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 over 3.5" in Minnesota, South Dakota. Minneapolis Radar says over 5.50" southwest Minnesota. Not sure, but 7.0" might have been possible by Glencoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 13 hours ago, Chinook said: over 3.5" in Minnesota, South Dakota. Minneapolis Radar says over 5.50" southwest Minnesota. Not sure, but 7.0" might have been possible by Glencoe. NWS DLH reporting 2-4" over NE MN, with isolated spots seeing a bit more (5-6"). River gauges at the Cloquet River in Brimson, the Knife River in Knife River, and the Baptism River near Beaver Bay saw a 5-6' jump in river levels last night. Here in the TH area looks like 2-2.5" fell. More rain on tap starting Thurs into Sat night, although current forecast is keeping the heaviest rains just to my S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 1 hour ago, Brian D said: More rain on tap starting Thurs into Sat night, although current forecast is keeping the heaviest rains just to my S. I rented a cabin in Bayfield WI, Thursday-Sunday. Looks like a chilly and wet weekend unfortunately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I rented a cabin in Bayfield WI, Thursday-Sunday. Looks like a chilly and wet weekend unfortunately. Bayfield and the Apostle Islands are a beautiful area…love it up there. Hope you have a good time even with the iffy weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 Well the heavy rain the last couple of days is starting to make it's way into the main stem rivers. The Mississippi at St Paul is now forecasted to get to essentially major stage by the 26th with additional rises thereafter. This is mostly thanks to the Minnesota which is at or forecasted to be at flood stage from New ULM eastward to the Twin Cities. And additional rain is expected, with WPC MDT risks on both tomorrow and Friday, including over the Twin Cities themselves. And the flood threat may extend down here over the weekend, with a chance of storms every day from now until Sunday. And considering we just got a storm that dumped .5"+ of rain in like 20 mins, the atmosphere is certainly primed for heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 As I say that, a FFW now for the West Side of Madison. A training series of popups has dropped like 2" in the last hour, with it still raining. Bad timing with rush hour as well. And today is not that big of a rain setup and we are doing that. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 @Brian Dany idea where this TH report was taken. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said: This is mostly thanks to the Minnesota which is at or forecasted to be at flood stage from New ULM eastward to the Twin Cities. And additional rain is expected, with WPC MDT risks on both tomorrow and Friday, including over the Twin Cities themselves. Relentless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: @Brian Dany idea where this TH report was taken. Mistake. That 7.33" was from a spot near McNair based on this below. McNair township is up Hwy #2 around the Langley River RD area a few miles east of Brimson. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 4 hours ago, Geoboy645 said: As I say that, a FFW now for the West Side of Madison. A training series of popups has dropped like 2" in the last hour, with it still raining. Bad timing with rush hour as well. And today is not that big of a rain setup and we are doing that. Yikes. Edge of the polygon missed me by about a mile to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 I know it's early and it's the overexcited NAM 3k but if this happens or even close it could be the worst flooding ever around here. The rivers are really high from previous rainfalls and forecast don't include the rain tomorrow night and Friday. The record flooding came from just one storm. This is that and more. Current record flooding from September 2010: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Have been looking at gauges around eastern MN, and the next round of rains will definitely cause some issues. Tributaries draining into the Mississippi, and St. Croix rivers are up. Minnesota river is up, too. They are all coming together just S of the Cities. Moderate/Major flooding is quite likely across areas of EC/S MN n N/W WI by early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Yikes. The rain is starting earlier and harder tonight then first forecasted. This could be the worst flooding event ever here. HRRR went up 2'' in the last 5 runs. The lowest part of the levee is 743'' in Henderson. I can't find anything on other towns along the Minnesota River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 The whole 90 corridor from Chamberlain to Adrian got 3 to 7 inches of rain last night. With another area of 6 plus just S of Sioux Falls. Pretty much every major river from the James to the uppermost Des Moines and pretty much every tributary of the Minnesota is forecasted for moderate to major flooding over the next week. And there's a good chance that some of the same areas could get multiple inches tonight. Even further E, where a corridor from Rochester to Winona is forecasted at 4 to 6 inches in the next 72 hours. Even over here we are forecasted for 2 to 3 inches of rain which is an uh oh amount because we are still so wet locally from the 5/21 to 6/4 stretch.We got 9 inches during that stretch, have had not a lot for 10 days and then just got an inch two days ago with the 2 to 3 forecasted. And tbh, this type of setup has the potential to potentially significantally overperform. This is a very significant flood event underway for the areas to the west, with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 Not what you want to see at all rn over the flooded areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Heavy rain event starting off with a bang here. A few popup storms formed overhead and dropped 1.15”. Should get a couple more rounds as the evening goes by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 So far the twin cities have avoided almost all the rain as the training storms setup just south. Sun is even coming out here in Bayfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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