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June 16th-21st (and beyond?) Heatwave


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Well it is looking more and more likely that next week will bring a significant heatwave to the subforum, especially to the S and E parts of the forum. Models have been consistent for a few days on at least 4 or 5 days of mid to upper 90s highs and mid 70s lows starting on Sunday and continuing at least until Friday. Detroit already has a point forecast of 97 on the 19th and 20th which is pretty notable for 5 days out. There's a pretty decent chance that some areas away from the lake in OH and IN tag 100 for the first time since 2012 imo. This ridge is portrayed on some models as going over 600dm which is significant for the region as a whole, let alone being centered over ...Erie PA. Further NW this will probably be more of a typical warm wave with maybe warmer than usual nights. Here in Madison area we are going to be right on the edge of it, as per usual, and it's going to really depend on exactly where it sets up each day if we get the main heat or not. All in all, a potentially significant amount of heat is in store for next week across the Midwest.

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Nice to see a heatwave that isn’t centered over the Great Plains. It’s no guarantee we tag 90 next week riding the far edge of the ridge but it’ll most likely happen.  

90 degree days through June 13th in Minneapolis, last 5 years.
 

2020 - 3

2021 - 10

2022 - 2 (101 on 6/20)

2023 - 5

2024 - 0

 

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Euro showing 100s popping up around the Detroit Metro next Thursday by 1-3pm. Would be insane if that actually does verify. Have a feeling this heat wave will be a special one. And it only makes it easier for heat to stick around. Ground is already hard and dry. Nice start to a flash drought unless we get some ridge riders.

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38 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Seems like the pattern I’ve been stuck in the past 3 summers has shifted east. Flash drought is no fun, I’ve already mowed my lawn as much as I did all of last summer. 

It's insane to see that in 2023, Minneapolis hit 90+ a total of 33 times, their 5th highest on record. Meanwhile Detroit hit 90 just 2 times, the max being just 90, lowest since 1915.

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9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's insane to see that in 2023, Minneapolis hit 90+ a total of 33 times, their 5th highest on record. Meanwhile Detroit hit 90 just 2 times, the max being just 90, lowest since 1915.

Just goes to show the variability in our region, Minneapolis is just far enough west to have a chinook effect and doesn’t have a Great Lake to moderate temperatures. I love living somewhere it can be -25 in winter and +100 in summer. 
 

Meanwhile WSW across western Montana, 4-6” of snow above 6,000 with 14-20” across the higher terrain. Wild stuff for the middle of June. 

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

image.thumb.png.3f1440f6414e8efccd8ddb8b4daf3721.png

:clown:model lol

 

I can see why the temps are like that with the setup it's got. Clouds n rain with a long fetch wind off the Lake from HP NE of the Lake. Lake air is chilly in the midst of Lake Superior during June into July.

June 22 00z GFS.png

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5 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Lake breeze has moved inland passed my location. Full Sun and 63. Feels wonderful out working in the yard. Shade is even a hint cool. Garden is soaking in the sun. To those few in this sub that live near a Great Lake, it’s a different world. 

Yeah, did here, too, as I posted in the other thread. Lake air still got a chill yet.

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5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

it good again?

gfs selling a miss east

 

probably a split.

GFS is big on getting tropical stuff involved from the Gulf, leading to more bouts of clouds/pop-up summer t'storms. Euro has been less-so, thus one of the reasons it has been hotter.

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This may be one of the most incredible heatwaves modeled for my locale for intensity and duration! The 00z Euro run was a saver, jaw-dropping mega death ridge with a 600dm over NYC. There may be only one other run I've seen that had 594+ over me for similar length of time which was a crack GFS run in Aug 2016 I think.

My 7 Day:

pq19n.png

Never seen 93F/34C forecast 4 days in a row before.

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Looking like a standard mid June 3-4 day heat wave in these parts. Might even get some pop up action to cool us down or the usual blow off cirrus to curb the heat some days. Looking forward to it.

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