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Friday, June 14, 2024 Convective Thread


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It should be active in terms of showers and thunderstorms today. Obviously any severe storms are going to be more localized. But those hoping for some rain will certainly have a chance today. 

Definitely need some rain before the heat sets in....nice to see clear skies to start today, should help later on

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Definitely need some rain before the heat sets in....nice to see clear skies to start today, should help later on

Yup...given the weak mid-level lapse rates we need to maximize sfc heating so we can achieve maximum instability. Mid-level lapse rates may also improve some as the day progresses. Could see them in the 6-6.5 C/KM range which isn't terrible, especially around here. 

HRRR continues to be rather inconsistent with its run-to-run evolution, however, I think we have a solid idea on how today evolves. We see some early stuff move through (which may also set a boundary for later) then by mid-to-late afternoon we see rapid development and a quick organization into a line with a focus on where the boundary resides. 

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...given the weak mid-level lapse rates we need to maximize sfc heating so we can achieve maximum instability. Mid-level lapse rates may also improve some as the day progresses. Could see them in the 6-6.5 C/KM range which isn't terrible, especially around here. 

HRRR continues to be rather inconsistent with its run-to-run evolution, however, I think we have a solid idea on how today evolves. We see some early stuff move through (which may also set a boundary for later) then by mid-to-late afternoon we see rapid development and a quick organization into a line with a focus on where the boundary resides. 

Jinxed it...looks like clouds rolling in as we speak

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats Scooter in S Wey. Just like winter. He meh’d and flaccid his way to another local Jack . Heading SE right for him 

May just miss. And no, that doesn't work anymore.

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