weatherwiz Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 An amplifying shortwave trough with associated cold front at the surface traverse the Northeast Friday. Ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures are expected to warm into the 70's and 80's with dewpoints climbing into the 60's. This should result in mixed-layer CAPE values ranging anywhere between 1,000-1,500 J/KG by peak heating. While there is potential for a narrow corridor of values in the 1,500-2,000 range, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit how unstable the atmosphere will become. Associated with the approaching shortwave trough will be seasonably strong dynamics characterized by 30-35 knots of bulk shear. Given the combination of modest instability, adequate deep layer shear, and strong forcing, scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid-day across central New York southwest into Pennsylvania. Given shear will become parallel to the front, convection should grow upscale into a line and then slowly sag southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. While low-level winds aren't overly impressive, the combination of steep lapse rates and unstable low-levels will yield the risk for damaging wind gusts within the strongest cells. Higher 0-3km helicity values may result in the potential for some small hail with any transient supercell structures and storm motion parallel to the front will yield potential for localized flash flooding, particularly in low-lying, flood prone areas. Best chance for strong thunderstorms will be across southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, western Mass, and northwest Connecticut. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 3k NAM is robust Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Might have to watch for a stein zone east of HFD to LWM or so depending on that system offshore. A subby zone develops in the area I outlined. Hopefully not because we’ll need it with the heat coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Meh Standard New England severe response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 We slight risk tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13 Author Share Posted June 13 13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: 3k NAM is robust Friday. that def has me a bit intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13 Author Share Posted June 13 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Might have to watch for a stein zone east of HFD to LWM or so depending on that system offshore. A subby zone develops in the area I outlined. Hopefully not because we’ll need it with the heat coming. I was worried that system may have some influence on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 I’m a little surprised at the lack of enthusiasm at least for the folks north and west of me in regards to this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Looks kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13 Author Share Posted June 13 How come everyone has to assume that when talking about thunderstorms that automatically means it has to be a high risk setup, if not then its a "bust"? 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Belchertown will be starting its annual "Severe Thunderstorm Warning Capital of New England" title defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Models having trouble figuring out the s/w interaction. GFS loses tomorrow aftn stuff and focuses more at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Models having trouble figuring out the s/w interaction. GFS loses tomorrow aftn stuff and focuses more at night. A nice light show when I don’t have to be up early the next morning would be grand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13 Author Share Posted June 13 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Models having trouble figuring out the s/w interaction. GFS loses tomorrow aftn stuff and focuses more at night. Saw that...interesting. Right now seems to be mesos vs non mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 That southern storm is ruining much of Saturday for ENE with clouds/ showers . Slowing fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Models having trouble figuring out the s/w interaction. GFS loses tomorrow aftn stuff and focuses more at night. 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Saw that...interesting. Right now seems to be mesos vs non mesos Pseudo PRE? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: A nice light show when I don’t have to be up early the next morning would be grand I was skimming through posts and could have swore you said “A nice light snow…”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: I was skimming through posts and could have swore you said “A nice light snow…”. I had none last year so I don’t even remember what that is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Had a look at this one just now and agree meh is the order of the day. But that's only to be expected in a New England severe forecast. Agree that southern VT/northwest MA is probably the best place to get organized convection and possibly a supercell but I also think southwest CT could see a decent squall line if things play out right with an organized cold pool. Timing is good, as are LL lapse rates, but that's about it for pros. ML lapse rates will suck as usual and LL winds will be relatively weak as has been pointed out, keeping helicity pretty low. Still, it's a severe day in CT so I'll take it, and you never know what might pop up due to mesoscale interactions, seabreeze boundaries, etc, etc. As usual, I'm fully prepared to be underwhelmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13 Author Share Posted June 13 3 minutes ago, ct_yankee said: Had a look at this one just now and agree meh is the order of the day. But that's only to be expected in a New England severe forecast. Agree that southern VT/northwest MA is probably the best place to get organized convection and possibly a supercell but I also think southwest CT could see a decent squall line if things play out right with an organized cold pool. Timing is good, as are LL lapse rates, but that's about it for pros. ML lapse rates will suck as usual and LL winds will be relatively weak as has been pointed out, keeping helicity pretty low. Still, it's a severe day in CT so I'll take it, and you never know what might pop up due to mesoscale interactions, seabreeze boundaries, etc, etc. As usual, I'm fully prepared to be underwhelmed. yeah SW CT may be a decent spot for best chance for stronger storms. southern VT/northwest MA I don't think is as good as it previously looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Quote southern VT/northwest MA I don't think is as good as it previously looked. And that's the problem with SNE severe forecasting, things always keep changing right up until the day of (although there are exceptions). Which is why I seldom dive too deeply into a local severe forecast until the night before the event, and even then things always look different in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 3k nam looks like shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Maine might be best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 14 Author Share Posted June 14 well we'll see what early morning runs look like but the mesos have been all over the place. Not atypical for this far out but we've yet to see much consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 HRRR steins some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 14 Author Share Posted June 14 It should be active in terms of showers and thunderstorms today. Obviously any severe storms are going to be more localized. But those hoping for some rain will certainly have a chance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Might get some stuff to reinvigorate this evening with good s/w approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR steins some areas Post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 14 Author Share Posted June 14 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might get some stuff to reinvigorate this evening with good s/w approaching. This aspect has been intriguing. Seems like we've been trending in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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