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Summer 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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23 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

The last part is really grasping, that typhoon is recent and had no effect on June or the first half of July.

The first part goes to show an evolution from Nino-Nina during summer versus heading into summer can have different outcomes. Also, add in that SST's are running warmer than long range guidance has showed by this point. The last part should be kept in mind heading into Winter, as a significant La Nina no longer is in the cards at this point.

should I start the winter thread? It's going to be cooking.

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15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

hottest year in modern history and looks like we're gonna escape the summer without a death ridge

should probably consider ourselves lucky

Yes definitely. Although our time will eventually come.

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7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

hottest year in modern history and looks like we're gonna escape the summer without a death ridge

should probably consider ourselves lucky

This summer in Toronto is above average but in the record books will actually look tame. We've only gone over 86F 7 times this year which assuming we cant get to 13 means the least amount in a decade. But instead of a cold summer its because so many days ended up at 83-85F

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On 7/25/2024 at 10:13 AM, Powerball said:

There's still next Summer though, which will likely end up being the more torchy one this Summer was originally projected to be (if historic 2nd year Nina climatology is any indication).

Already writing off August?

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2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep. We will see heat but the summer failed the extreme heat in this area of the Great Lakes. Though it was very humid 

Plenty of high heat in that region this summer. Today was the 14th day above 86F/30C at Buffalo (the 13 indicated below is missing today's high of 88F). Only 7 years since 1873 had more through August 1. I guess it's just somehow missed Pearson International Airport.

image.png.9b0af9aa8df0be08b16a48fe23a6a393.png

The mean temperature of 72.2F at Buffalo is 4th highest on record for the first two months of meteorological summer since records began in 1873.

image.png.11eba794a04db62888eb89f6d90e7c12.png

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On 7/29/2024 at 2:51 PM, mississaugasnow said:

This summer in Toronto is above average but in the record books will actually look tame. We've only gone over 86F 7 times this year which assuming we cant get to 13 means the least amount in a decade. But instead of a cold summer its because so many days ended up at 83-85F

Humidex has probably been off the chart the last few days with these dewpoints as high as 77F/25C.

Toronto Pearson International Airport Weather History

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On 8/1/2024 at 11:28 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Humidex has probably been off the chart the last few days with these dewpoints as high as 77F/25C.

Toronto Pearson International Airport Weather History

Yep, it was a very humid summer and Toronto got absolutely burned this year by just missing 86F. Tons of 85.6F type days. lol the other day hit 29.9C or 85.8F. Id have to take a look but if you added .5F to those days you'd probably double Torontos 86F days from 9 to 18.  One thing missing though (because of all the humidity?) is the 90F+ type days at Pearson. 

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21 minutes ago, Danny8 said:

Is there an easy way to look up historical dew point data? Monthly and daily data?

or is that something you have to back into with temp and humidity data. 

IEM [Iowa Environmental Mesonet] is the easiest for monthly data, but it generally goes back no further than the 1930s or 1940s [or the earliest date on which a newer station opened].

network:IL_ASOS::station:MDW::season:jul

network:IL_ASOS::station:MDW::season:sum

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24 minutes ago, Danny8 said:

Is there an easy way to look up historical dew point data? Monthly and daily data?

or is that something you have to back into with temp and humidity data. 

Also has daily minimum and maximum dewpoints, which can be downloaded as a .csv file.

network:IA_ASOS::zstation:DSM::year:1936

 

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7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Also has daily minimum and maximum dewpoints, which can be downloaded as a .csv file.

network:IA_ASOS::zstation:DSM::year:1936

 

Some of this data is wrong for the record-breaking winter of 1935-1936. While many of the lowest hourly dewpoints on record at Des Moines did occur during that winter (including the all-time low of -40F on January 29, 1936 & February 14, 1936), it was not lower than -60F with those huge daily swings shown.

network:IA_ASOS::zstation:DSM::month:all

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On 7/29/2024 at 7:23 AM, A-L-E-K said:

hottest year in modern history and looks like we're gonna escape the summer without a death ridge

should probably consider ourselves lucky

We slowly cook these days. I haven't exceeded 94F since 2021.

 

image.png.654a13e531f370d8f00f694457be26ea.png

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Thought I'd post this here. Stratospheric H2O content is finally starting to normalize after the Hunga Tonga eruption in Jan 2022. That was an awesome eruption event. "Shot heard around the world" type event. Scientists have never had an opportunity to research this type of eruption before, so it was something new for them to observe over the last couple years, and the potential effects it had on global climate. Massive seawater injection well into the stratosphere. The excess water first spread throughout the S Hemisphere in 2022, then made its way into the N Hemisphere in 2023. Very cool stuff. :) 

Drying trend should continue through the rest of the year, and that means back to normal soon. 

Stratospheric H2O graph.png

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On 7/29/2024 at 6:23 AM, A-L-E-K said:

hottest year in modern history and looks like we're gonna escape the summer without a death ridge

should probably consider ourselves lucky

Idk about this. Starting to see some much hotter trends in the med-long range now, and there's actually support for it this time. Obviously much can change between now and then, but it's becoming clearer that we aren't entirely done with the heat, even if it ends up being subdued.

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22 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Idk about this. Starting to see some much hotter trends in the med-long range now, and there's actually support for it this time. Obviously much can change between now and then, but it's becoming clearer that we aren't entirely done with the heat, even if it ends up being subdued.

yes. it will get hot for a bit as the kids return to school....been doin' it for years.

download (17).jpeg

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

yes. it will get hot for a bit as the kids return to school....been doin' it for years.

download (17).jpeg

Considering how refreshingly cool it’s been as of late, the return to 90+ temps will certainly feel more miserable than usual.

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On 8/17/2024 at 1:01 PM, rainsucks said:

Idk about this. Starting to see some much hotter trends in the med-long range now, and there's actually support for it this time. Obviously much can change between now and then, but it's becoming clearer that we aren't entirely done with the heat, even if it ends up being subdued.

what's coming up for next weekend-ish is going to be limited to a few days. so, there's still nothing consistent or long lasting upcoming.

nonetheless, it's good to see another good push of summer conditions on tap. at this time of year, you never know when your last may be.

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