Summer 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

50 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

still not convinced we don't see at least one significant heat wave before summer comes to an end, though I do admit it's a bit surprising how cool the mid-section of the country has been this month in spite of both coasts roasting.

Almost seems as though pre-2013 summer analogs have become useless at this point. CC is most certainly playing a huge role in this seemingly "new" dominant summer pattern we've been stuck in for over a decade now.

blessed

[SolidIcewx]

Not a bad summer so far honestly. Just enough heat and humidity to cause my garden to take off. Already have 3’ pepper plants and almost 6’ tomato’s. I do however feel like there has been a few more humid days so far compared to last year.

[CheeselandSkies]

Don't want to jinx it but I'm appreciating the lack of >200 AQI days thus far.

[Baum]

5 hours ago, rainsucks said:

still not convinced we don't see at least one significant heat wave before summer comes to an end, though I do admit it's a bit surprising how cool the mid-section of the country has been this month in spite of both coasts roasting.

Almost seems as though pre-2013 summer analogs have become useless at this point. CC is most certainly playing a huge role in this seemingly "new" dominant summer pattern we've been stuck in for over a decade now.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

23 hours ago, rainsucks said:

still not convinced we don't see at least one significant heat wave before summer comes to an end, though I do admit it's a bit surprising how cool the mid-section of the country has been this month in spite of both coasts roasting.

Almost seems as though pre-2013 summer analogs have become useless at this point. CC is most certainly playing a huge role in this seemingly "new" dominant summer pattern we've been stuck in for over a decade now.

Except it hasn't been cool, it's been one of the hottest starts to summer in the lifetime of most of the posters here. The "refreshing" crowd is mostly trolling or revisionist history.

This is in advance of a significant heat wave that looks to last through Tuesday...

Cleveland - ninth warmest to date, less than a degree from second place. Since 1952, only 2005 & 2012 have been warmer.

Chicago - 11th hottest start to summer on record. Since 1971, only 2012 & 2020 have been hotter. Literally one of the hottest summers in the lifetime of that troll @A-L-E-Kbut we're supposed to pretend it's nice and refreshing. Midway (KMDW) even hotter at 75.6F.

Some other climate sites with long PORs. Many of these sites have multiple recent years higher, so prior to 2010, a lot of these rankings would have been several spots higher.

• Detroit: 20th warmest
• Akron/Canton: 13th warmest
• Mansfield, Ohio: 13th warmest
• Toledo: 19th warmest
• Lansing, Michigan: 24th warmest [records date to 1863]
• Saginaw, Michigan: 14th warmest
• Columbus, Ohio: 16th warmest [since 1949, only 1991, 1999, 2012 & 2020 hotter]
• Milwaukee: 14th warmest
• Rockford, IL: 13th warmest

The Toronto crowd keeps saying it's not been too bad, but if we look at the data from the eastern Lakes region, we can see it's one of the hottest summers ever observed - certainly in recent memory.

Buffalo, New York

Erie, Pennsylvania

Wheeling, West Virginia

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

 

[TheClimateChanger]

I guess we have to pretend a top 15-20 warmest start to the season is "so cool" because it doesn't actually get "cool" anymore. Meanwhile large portions of the east and west coasts are having their hottest summers on record, certainly top 5. Should be one of the hottest summers on record in recorded U.S. history.

I mean the numbers above are with a mean trough over the upper Midwest. Just imagine the numbers 2024 could produce with a mega ridge over these same areas.

[roardog]

[michsnowfreak]

23 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Not a bad summer so far honestly. Just enough heat and humidity to cause my garden to take off. Already have 3’ pepper plants and almost 6’ tomato’s. I do however feel like there has been a few more humid days so far compared to last year.

I definitely expected a hotter summer than what we are seeing. Other than that heatwave in June (which was overforecast as is) it hasn't been bad at all. Now it appears that after a few warm, humid days we will see a nice cool down later in the week for some incredible weather during the hottest part of the year. 

[mississaugasnow]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I definitely expected a hotter summer than what we are seeing. Other than that heatwave in June (which was overforecast as is) it hasn't been bad at all. Now it appears that after a few warm, humid days we will see a nice cool down later in the week for some incredible weather during the hottest part of the year. 

Fully agree. Also to respond to climate change, Buffalo has been slightly warmer compared to Toronto. It has been above normal, zero disagreements there. But the extreme heat hasn't really occurred. 

I know that this conversation happens in winter but with every week that passes without 86F+ it gets tougher and tougher for Toronto to make up ground and make this a summer to remember. Can Toronto see 15-20 days in August over 86F, sure. Will it happen, most likely not. 

 

My guess is we see about  3 more in July, 5 in August and the common 2 in September. 

Toronto has only gone at or above 86F twice this month. And both were 86F haha 

[mjwise]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I definitely expected a hotter summer than what we are seeing. Other than that heatwave in June (which was overforecast as is) it hasn't been bad at all. Now it appears that after a few warm, humid days we will see a nice cool down later in the week for some incredible weather during the hottest part of the year. 

The first three weeks of June were lousy here - too warm, too dry and led up to the hot but not unbearable week of 90s but then the switch got flipped and we got a few big boy LLJ firehose events and we greened back up nicely.

The ensembles also have not been able to resolve the CONUS pattern very well even in a general sense beyond day 8-9 or so. There's been too much depiction of some vague full latitude ridge that would be suggestive of a plains death ridge type setup that then vanishes in the mid range. It could still happen of course but the ensemble models performance doesn't seem great this year.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Fully agree. Also to respond to climate change, Buffalo has been slightly warmer compared to Toronto. It has been above normal, zero disagreements there. But the extreme heat hasn't really occurred. 

I know that this conversation happens in winter but with every week that passes without 86F+ it gets tougher and tougher for Toronto to make up ground and make this a summer to remember. Can Toronto see 15-20 days in August over 86F, sure. Will it happen, most likely not. 

 

My guess is we see about  3 more in July, 5 in August and the common 2 in September. 

Toronto has only gone at or above 86F twice this month. And both were 86F haha 

He has meltdowns if you don't align with his one track mindset. I really thought it was going to be a very hot summer. Been saying that for a while. We lucked out with a below avg summer last year (when I pointed out that the 2023 max of DTW of 90 was the lowest since 1915, CC said a stat like that was making a big deal of nothing or something like that)...plus the anticipated switch from nino to nina. It all screamed hot summer. 

 

What we got instead (here) is one heatwave in June. It was the first heatwave in 2 years and miserable, but definitely over hyped. June finished 12th warmest but thanks heavily to low temps, as the avg high was only 21st hottest. July to date is running cooler than average and the avg high temp so far for July is 86th hottest (or 62nd coldest). The summer high temps are what makes or breaks a hot summer, but the low temps in recent years have done the heavy lifting. I could not care less how hot it is in the south or west, just as I could not care less how cold it's been in the UK. I care about what it is in Michigan, and it's better than I expected!

[rainsucks]

I think the lackadaisical ENSO transition is most certainly playing a role in why we haven't seen much in the way of formative heat thus far. Even then, it's still odd that the Plains have been so cold as general teleconnections shouldn't really support such a pattern taking hold.

[A-L-E-K]

Teleconnections...zzzz

[mississaugasnow]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

He has meltdowns if you don't align with his one track mindset. I really thought it was going to be a very hot summer. Been saying that for a while. We lucked out with a below avg summer last year (when I pointed out that the 2023 max of DTW of 90 was the lowest since 1915, CC said a stat like that was making a big deal of nothing or something like that)...plus the anticipated switch from nino to nina. It all screamed hot summer. 

 

What we got instead (here) is one heatwave in June. It was the first heatwave in 2 years and miserable, but definitely over hyped. June finished 12th warmest but thanks heavily to low temps, as the avg high was only 21st hottest. July to date is running cooler than average and the avg high temp so far for July is 86th hottest (or 62nd coldest). The summer high temps are what makes or breaks a hot summer, but the low temps in recent years have done the heavy lifting. I could not care less how hot it is in the south or west, just as I could not care less how cold it's been in the UK. I care about what it is in Michigan, and it's better than I expected!

Yep, it's the overnight lows here doing the heavy lifting as well. Average here is 81/59F but we've been seeing 84/66F so it's really pushing the "hotter" average. 

 

[Spartman]

16 hours ago, rainsucks said:

I think the lackadaisical ENSO transition is most certainly playing a role in why we haven't seen much in the way of formative heat thus far. Even then, it's still odd that the Plains have been so cold as general teleconnections shouldn't really support such a pattern taking hold.

What about too many recent volcano eruptions, especially the Hunga Tonga eruption back in 2022?

Only one real heat wave so far this year, and it was last month.

[A-L-E-K]

extended is incredible

[madwx]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended is incredible

best climo?

[A-L-E-K]

s tier tornado outbreak followed by endless 70s, hard 2 disagree

[TheClimateChanger]

On 7/14/2024 at 5:48 PM, Spartman said:

What about too many recent volcano eruptions, especially the Hunga Tonga eruption back in 2022?

Only one real heat wave so far this year, and it was last month.

Looks like summer is over, between all the volcanos and this gigantic smoke pall forming over west North America, the sun doesn’t stand a chance.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Lots of filthy air up there in Canada.

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Upper atmospheric smoke has entered central and southern Minnesota. AQ is still fine but the milky skies are back. Hope it stays elevated.

[Chicago Storm]

On 7/14/2024 at 4:48 PM, Spartman said:

What about too many recent volcano eruptions, especially the Hunga Tonga eruption back in 2022?

Only one real heat wave so far this year, and it was last month.

no.

[A-L-E-K]

ready for some nw flow events

[rainsucks]

very surprised by how the pattern has played out this month. I'm not complaining though, it's been nice.

[A-L-E-K]

we all bust

[Powerball]

31 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

very surprised by how the pattern has played out this month. I'm not complaining though, it's been nice.

A much slower than expected transition to a La Nina ENSO state and the ongoing Super Typhoon in the West Pacific has definitely screwed up what were originally the expectations for this Summer.

[rainsucks]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

A much slower than expected transition to a La Nina ENSO state and the ongoing Super Typhoon in the West Pacific has definitely screwed up what were originally the expectations for this Summer.

the Plains still shouldn't be that cold in a largely dominant +EPO regime though, so weird.

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

A much slower than expected transition to a La Nina ENSO state and the ongoing Super Typhoon in the West Pacific has definitely screwed up what were originally the expectations for this Summer.

The last part is really grasping, that typhoon is recent and had no effect on June or the first half of July.

The first part goes to show an evolution from Nino-Nina during summer versus heading into summer can have different outcomes. Also, add in that SST's are running warmer than long range guidance has showed by this point. The last part should be kept in mind heading into Winter, as a significant La Nina no longer is in the cards at this point.

[Powerball]

17 hours ago, rainsucks said:

the Plains still shouldn't be that cold in a largely dominant +EPO regime though, so weird.

There's still next Summer though, which will likely end up being the more torchy one this Summer was originally projected to be (if historic 2nd year Nina climatology is any indication).

[Powerball]

17 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

that typhoon is recent and had no effect on June or the first half of July.

Never said it was, because in fact June was actually solidly to well-above normal across much of the country.

The Typhoon though is definitely helping to reinforce, for the short/medium-term, the ongoing pattern with Western Ridging and Central/Eastern Troughing that has been in place for much of July as we enter the climatologically hottest part of the year, which is really killing any shot of those bullish Summer forecasts verifying at this point (although I will caveat this by saying there's still the last 2/3rds of August to get through).