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Summer 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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The pattern being modeled for the 2nd half of June is looking pretty ugly. The GEPS in particular is just an absolute blowtorch, and this is just a taste of what's to come. Can't even being to imagine what will happen in July/August when boreal summer teleconnections mature, but we'll see.

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As mentioned in the other thread, enjoy the next 2 weeks while they last.

Indications are that eastern realignment of the heat ridge should be underway starting the 3rd week of June, which should be the dominant pattern (aside from the occasional transient breakdown with NW flow shortwaves or tropical activity) for the remainder of the Summer.

There won't be any smoke levels of consequence to help obscure solar insolation this time either.

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I just want the dunes to hit 70 something by like the second week of July. We're getting there pretty quick just through consistency; I have no doubt that just a week of 90+ would nearly finish the job

 

m5_2024_06_06_0850 (1).png

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not seeing any real heat on the gefs, gulf opens up and starts getting active so hopefully that juices our nw flow pattern later on


GEFS has been running too cold for a while now. It will correct warmer with time.

They’re already warm/well above average in the extended.

dbc67ecc02956beb457af9ff5a59583d.jpg
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On 6/6/2024 at 8:57 AM, Powerball said:

As mentioned in the other thread, enjoy the next 2 weeks while they last.

Indications are that eastern realignment of the heat ridge should be underway starting the 3rd week of June, which should be the dominant pattern (aside from the occasional transient breakdown with NW flow shortwaves or tropical activity) for the remainder of the Summer.

There won't be any smoke levels of consequence to help obscure solar insolation this time either.

814temp_new.thumb.gif.60812d7897e728ee7ff98d9a00ec08de.gif

 

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The next ten days look wet and exciting in the nw sub, while the rest of the sub sees little or nothing.

image.thumb.png.763e7f671adc616e7f57424b1478df16.png

Uhhh, thats a lot of rain. That would cause some serious issues on the Minnesota, Upper Mississippi, St Croix, Chippewa, Black, and Wisconsin rivers. Almost 9 inches of rain in the Twin Cities in 10 days would be a really big deal. They have missed a lot of the big summer flooding events within the last 15 years, that's looking like that will change here.

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17 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Uhhh, thats a lot of rain. That would cause some serious issues on the Minnesota, Upper Mississippi, St Croix, Chippewa, Black, and Wisconsin rivers. Almost 9 inches of rain in the Twin Cities in 10 days would be a really big deal. They have missed a lot of the big summer flooding events within the last 15 years, that's looking like that will change here.

I’m working along the Mississippi in downtown St. Paul this afternoon. River is bank full and there is minor flooding along the typical low lying areas. Any more then 2-3” of rain and we’ll have big problems. 

B7DD3288-8A69-4713-A4EB-16B95F8B9808.jpeg

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20 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I’m working along the Mississippi in downtown St. Paul this afternoon. River is bank full and there is minor flooding along the typical low lying areas. Any more then 2-3” of rain and we’ll have big problems. 

B7DD3288-8A69-4713-A4EB-16B95F8B9808.jpeg

Yeah that's a big problem considering the potential totals. And this would be efficient summer rainfall so it'll be heavy rainfall rates. Idk how well the Twin Cities can handle a lot of rain on top of it tbh. Minneapolis is pretty flat and the lakes aren't really reservoir like lakes. It's a system that hasn't been stress tested with the amount of growth in that metro over the last 30 years iirc

Edit: it appears that the last time the metro had a big flash flooding event at least according to the MNDNR site for flooding was 7/19-22 1987. That period set a diurnal record of 9.15 inches at MSP. There's been 37 years of rapid growth since then, especially in important watersheds such as Minnehaha Creek. And that event was pretty localized and not at the same time as the rest of the state being dumped on with already high rivers.

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19 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Yeah that's a big problem considering the potential totals. And this would be efficient summer rainfall so it'll be heavy rainfall rates. Idk how well the Twin Cities can handle a lot of rain on top of it tbh. Minneapolis is pretty flat and the lakes aren't really reservoir like lakes. It's a system that hasn't been stress tested with the amount of growth in that metro over the last 30 years iirc

Edit: it appears that the last time the metro had a big flash flooding event at least according to the MNDNR site for flooding was 7/19-22 1987. That period set a diurnal record of 9.15 inches at MSP. There's been 37 years of rapid growth since then, especially in important watersheds such as Minnehaha Creek. And that event was pretty localized and not at the same time as the rest of the state being dumped on with already high rivers.

Luckily the lakes are still a little low after 3 summers of flash drought and a mostly snowless winter, so they can take some runoff. In 2019 Minnehaha Creek was flowing over the Grays Bay Dam spillway at Lake Minnetonka for a few weeks, it caused minor flooding along the trails at the lake down the block from my house. (Nokomis) The Mississippi River downstream from St. Anthony’s Falls is in a gorge which acts like a giant storm sewer for the cities, but if rainfall rates are high enough there will definitely be urban flood potential. As you mentioned the suburbs have exploded with growth over the past 30 years so newer built areas will definitely be put to the test. I did the geotech work on a massive flood control project that MNDOT finished up last year, time to put this system to the test. 
 

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/local/mndot-builds-massive-storm-drainage-tanks-along-35w/89-461d7b05-01d7-4b6d-9181-c0a7bf753fe8

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