*Flash* Posted Friday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:58 PM 10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The GFS really missed with Francine. It was too far to the east. I think the actual storm is in the Ozarks now! Social media has been torching the NWS since this graphic released earlier this morning. Not a good day to be a local met around these parts. As a math guy, I get model deviation potential but this 50 mile shift was brutal for those expecting rain who really needed it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Friday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:00 PM Disappointment aside, the mid-state still has to keep her guard up later today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Friday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:26 PM The mid state rain chances are disappearing quickly. Was hoping to aerate & seed my yard but the ground is way to hard to do that. Sad & pitiful. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM I had probably an hour total of light rain with about two 5 minute moderate showers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Saturday at 01:32 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:32 AM .20 total here last night. Western and Northern portions of County got up to a half inch . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Saturday at 07:40 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 07:40 AM CPC and the operational models are in disagreement. They favor AN precip for 6-10/8-14 but the models have virtually no rain here at all over that time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Saturday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:15 PM 9 hours ago, John1122 said: CPC and the operational models are in disagreement. They favor AN precip for 6-10/8-14 but the models have virtually no rain here at all over that time frame. Yeah, it's as if CPC is running behind. I think Models had veen showing a wetter Pattern several days ago. Hopefully, that's not the case and they're onto something. If not, we're hurting around here. Drought, forest fires and damaged foliage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Saturday at 09:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:06 PM On 9/13/2024 at 10:58 AM, *Flash* said: Social media has been torching the NWS since this graphic released earlier this morning. Not a good day to be a local met around these parts. As a math guy, I get model deviation potential but this 50 mile shift was brutal for those expecting rain who really needed it. The GFS total whiffed on this. Bust city. Several models were further west, and they were correct. But this thing in reality was way west of most guidance from a few days ago. Lots of schedules were changed due to this, but not sure forecasters could have done much. It is a really good example of an outlier being wrong, but didn't get tossed soon enough. It had the trend until it didn't. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Saturday at 09:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:07 PM 19 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: .20 total here last night. Western and Northern portions of County got up to a half inch . I think it sprinkled here! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Saturday at 09:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:08 PM On 9/13/2024 at 7:28 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: It's been pretty sad watching the precip chances slowly ebb for plateau areas as Francine has moved toward us. Had a 20 second decent shower and that's about it. Some Hires models showing some storm chances this PM. MRX also notes the non 0 tornado risk in southern plateau and valley areas. And man, good to have you posting again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM I see that we have more reactions to choose from. I think we need to really have a "97" reaction, because my high school drafting teacher would only give us a 97. She said that great drafting was never really perfect - awesome teacher by the way. We also have an "x" and a "crap" reaction. I predict that we see a lot of those during Jan and Feb, definitely March. Or if someone goes full Boomer Sooner on us next weekend....we could get some early use of those. So if you need to test some of those out, this is the post to use. LOL! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Sunday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:12 PM I 'escaped' Francine with just a hair over 2". Just 10-15 miles down 70, you were hard-pressed to find anything over .75". The sharp gradient on the east side was definitely a middle finger to 65 locales. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Monday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:41 PM Reasons why I have not been on much recently.. They got the hole over East Brainerd, east of downtown Chattanooga. The totally whacked thing is that it's probably right! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 07:54 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:54 PM The Hi-Res are spreading around .3 my way, some more, some less. I'm hoping for that. Fall color is showing up here, some yellows and reds are beginning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 01:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:11 AM On 9/15/2024 at 11:56 AM, Carvers Gap said: I see that we have more reactions to choose from. I think we need to really have a "97" reaction, because my high school drafting teacher would only give us a 97. She said that great drafting was never really perfect - awesome teacher by the way. We also have an "x" and a "crap" reaction. I predict that we see a lot of those during Jan and Feb, definitely March. Or if someone goes full Boomer Sooner on us next weekend....we could get some early use of those. So if you need to test some of those out, this is the post to use. LOL! Well the ole crapper works! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 01:13 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:13 AM 6 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Reasons why I have not been on much recently.. They got the hole over East Brainerd, east of downtown Chattanooga. The totally whacked thing is that it's probably right! It’s definitely right! Mid state can’t buy a soaking rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 11:22 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:22 AM Woo hoo, actual rainfall on the plateau this AM! Hope everyone who has a chance can get a shower! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM On 9/15/2024 at 11:56 AM, Carvers Gap said: I see that we have more reactions to choose from. I think we need to really have a "97" reaction, because my high school drafting teacher would only give us a 97. She said that great drafting was never really perfect - awesome teacher by the way. We also have an "x" and a "crap" reaction. I predict that we see a lot of those during Jan and Feb, definitely March. Or if someone goes full Boomer Sooner on us next weekend....we could get some early use of those. So if you need to test some of those out, this is the post to use. LOL! I'm setting the over/under 1.5 crap emojis vs. 1.0 weenie emojis as the primary ratio during the November 15-March 15 time period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM It has been awesome today. Light rain, drizzle, and a breeze. The leaves, as John noted, are starting change. We still have some heat to navigate, but today has been a nice touch of fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:26 PM Some nice cold fronts are starting to show up on the control runs of ensembles in the LR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago Looks like, fingers double crossed, that fall arrives in earnest around Oct 1st. Widespread frost and maybe even some rain around the area between now and then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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