John1122 Posted August 30 Author Share Posted August 30 The thunder is starting up again. Looks like a heavy storm north of me. Hopefully they keep growing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 15 hours ago, Matthew70 said: https://www.wate.com/news/smoky-mountains/flint-gap-fire-in-the-smokies/ Burn ban now in effect for Rutherford county that I live in. The leaves are coming down like snow. Many are green with some yellow. My yard is the worse I have ever seen it. Completely dead. Looking forward to the cooler days but if we don’t get rain it’s going to get ugly I’m afraid. My neighbor is a forest fire fighter. He said right now it would take 5-7” to end our drought. Any rain would help but with the driest months coming up. He said pay attention. We live next to the woods. Same here,gonna be a bad foilage season this year in our parts.Most of the rains today have been west of us,but right now we seem to be getting a OFB from those which is kicking off some showers.HIT 102 yesterday and of course my upstairs AC croaked out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 30 Author Share Posted August 30 Got some rain again today. Looks like more of us will get in on it tomorrow and Sunday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Same here,gonna be a bad foilage season this year in our parts.Most of the rains today have been west of us,but right now we seem to be getting a OFB from those which is kicking off some showers.HIT 102 yesterday and of course my upstairs AC croaked out Sorry to hear that. Hopefully it’s a small fix and quick one at that. So true about fall foliage. Leaves are falling quickly in many parts of the area and never had a chance to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Not but a few drops IMBY. It’s literally like a desert here. Everything is already looking like winter. Hopefully the trees do not die while going dormant. I feel this is much worse than 2016 for this area. The two driest months still to come. Ugh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 All the rains are teasing this area today. Gust fronts & thunder but no rain. sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 Had some very heavy rain today. Still raining now. Hopefully the mid-state gets in on the act tomorrow. Sometimes we can get a drought killing tropical system but with the rare Atlantic La Nina that's developed, tropical activity from Cape Verde may be less than normal this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 1 Author Share Posted September 1 Very heavy rain/storms moving through once again. Looks like the week will start cooler than last week but not quite as cool as it was advertised earlier. Highs had been forecast to be in the mid-70s next week but now it's lower 80s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 I think the worst of summer is behind us. There might be one last warm shot during the second week of Sept, and then again by mid-October. But the LR ext models are signaling a fairly BN temp pattern for Fall. I wouldn't be surprised to see an Oct warm-up as that fits the tropical double dip that we see then. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 15 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I think the worst of summer is behind us. There might be one last warm shot during the second week of Sept, and then again by mid-October. But the LR ext models are signaling a fairly BN temp pattern for Fall. I wouldn't be surprised to see an Oct warm-up as that fits the tropical double dip that we see then. Yes sir. Am thinking the exact same as you are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Very thankful to have gotten some rain. 1-2” helped no doubt. Though forecast looks dry again for quite awhile. The winds & lower humidity will dry it out quickly. I do love the fall wx that is coming next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 I guess the original forecast was right, it only made it to 75 here today. Oddly, it was apparently 88 in Knoxville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 6 hours ago, John1122 said: I guess the original forecast was right, it only made it to 75 here today. Oddly, it was apparently 88 in Knoxville. Yeah, the cooler air had trouble infiltrating the great valley . Hit 79 here. Got short changed with Rainfall this last System, only .53 Total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 I posted a "just for fun" 2024-2025 winter outlook. Just scroll down on the TN forum page. Feel free to add your thoughts and/or make your own forecast. Either is fine by me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 And BTW, I don't think that we haven't seen the last of summer. I should never, ever have posted the above. LR ext models somewhat flipped the day after I posted that. Still, it is shoulder season, and really anything can happened as modeling is often very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Amazing how 1-2” rain dissipates so quickly when in a drought. Not liking the LR precip maps. Again thankful for what I got but droughts are sure hard to bust once they get established. Cooler wx I love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 8 Author Share Posted September 8 Made it down to 43 this morning. Long range models were showing September as cool/bn, but 6-10/8-14 look to be AN at this point. Very dry too, unfortunately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 33 minutes ago, John1122 said: Made it down to 43 this morning. Long range models were showing September as cool/bn, but 6-10/8-14 look to be AN at this point. Very dry too, unfortunately. Yeah, the shoulder season flip/flop got me for sure. Looks pretty warm in the LR ext now. When in doubt, climatology is gonna win most times. I think La Nina is getting stronger, and extended summer fits that. I would expect a sharp flip to cold by later Oct or early Nov....maybe even winter time cold. The tropical system next weekend may also be a problem for modeling....that could shake things up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 10 hours ago, John1122 said: Made it down to 43 this morning. Long range models were showing September as cool/bn, but 6-10/8-14 look to be AN at this point. Very dry too, unfortunately. 43 here this AM. 42 just west of Town. General lower 40's. Hopefully that gulf tc will throw a monkey wrench in the dry pattern. If not, forest fires could become a problem as well as a crappy leaf peaking Season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Some ares were approaching record lows agains(jus a couple of weeks ago was similar) this morning. LR ext(weeklies) models have cooled again. There is a pretty massive ebb and flow on modeling right now. I am sure it is a combination of being shoulder season and also this tropical system shaking things up. My guess is that there are going to be some wild swings in reality. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 We could use the rain .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1104 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024 The focus in the long term continues to the newly named tropical system, Francine. Currently it is a tropical storm off the east coast of Mexico. It will have a north/northeasterly track and is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. Ensemble solutions are in fairly good agreement that the remnants continue northward roughly along the Mississippi River bringing showers and storms back to our area on Thursday. Without much upper level steering, the remnants are expected to very slowly continue the northward track Friday and into the weekend. As far as any severe potential, the best chance for Middle Tennessee will be Friday. Model soundings show low level backing along with around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE which could be supportive of rotating cells. With that said, there are many details still to be worked out. The remnants will very slowly wobble northeastward early next week. In the meantime, expect scattered shower and storm chances to continue. Rain could be heavy at time with PWAT values in the 1.7-1.9" inch range. As far as temperatures in the extended, Wednesday will be the warmest days with highs back in the 80s and 90s. Thursday through the weekend will be cooler given the increase cloud cover and showers and storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 9 Author Share Posted September 9 Mid state and western Valley looks to get soaked from this system. The east can hopefully squeeze some out too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 11 Author Share Posted September 11 Looks like some of the latest models are showing the mid-state getting the brunt of the rainfall. The track has slowly shifted more east by a bit over the last 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 16 hours ago, John1122 said: Looks like some of the latest models are showing the mid-state getting the brunt of the rainfall. The track has slowly shifted more east by a bit over the last 24 hours. Definitely going to be plenty of rain to go around, I think south west Tn takes the brunt of this one though. Especially Shelby county and those counties in north Mississippi along the border. It could get dangerous fast as flash flooding is probably imminent given how dry a summer we’ve had. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 4 hours ago, AMZ8990 said: Definitely going to be plenty of rain to go around, I think south west Tn takes the brunt of this one though. Especially Shelby county and those counties in north Mississippi along the border. It could get dangerous fast as flash flooding is probably imminent given how dry a summer we’ve had. For sure! I'm glad drought-stricken areas south and west of Nash will get the brunt of the Francine's rain. I'm hopeful any areas of moderate/extreme drought will vanish by time next week's drought monitor report comes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Some HL blocking is starting to show up at the weeklies 6-7 week range. There are understandably a wide range of options on the table ranging from a GOA low to a very -AO to a strong EPO ridge. It looks like what shapes our pattern will be upstream blocking vs Atlantic in nature(at least for now). The Euro Weeklies control brings winter to much of the continent by late October. The snow pack in Canada w/ that scenario would build quickly. Alas, it is shoulder season, but this fits w/ Nina climatology. Heat relaxes, fall advances, and then one more shot of AN air during early-mid October. Then the bottom falls out. These are the opening moves of winter on the ext LR models. Just food for thought and nothing overly serious at this point. I am not even posting thumbnails. Huge grains of salt. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Some HL blocking is starting to show up at the weeklies 6-7 week range. There are understandably a wide range of options on the table ranging from a GOA low to a very -AO to a strong EPO ridge. It looks like what shapes our pattern will be upstream blocking vs Atlantic in nature(at least for now). The Euro Weeklies control brings winter to much of the continent by late October. The snow pack in Canada w/ that scenario would build quickly. Alas, it is shoulder season, but this fits w/ Nina climatology. Heat relaxes, fall advances, and then one more shot of AN air during early-mid October. Then the bottom falls out. These are the opening moves of winter on the ext LR models. Just food for thought and nothing overly serious at this point. I am not even posting thumbnails. Huge grains of salt. Man I can remember when we used to always be able to look at the end of October and the first of November for that real blast of winter. Shoot even the short to mid range blocking is looking good. Keep posting brother. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 On 9/11/2024 at 8:08 PM, Carvers Gap said: Some HL blocking is starting to show up at the weeklies 6-7 week range. There are understandably a wide range of options on the table ranging from a GOA low to a very -AO to a strong EPO ridge. It looks like what shapes our pattern will be upstream blocking vs Atlantic in nature(at least for now). The Euro Weeklies control brings winter to much of the continent by late October. The snow pack in Canada w/ that scenario would build quickly. Alas, it is shoulder season, but this fits w/ Nina climatology. Heat relaxes, fall advances, and then one more shot of AN air during early-mid October. Then the bottom falls out. These are the opening moves of winter on the ext LR models. Just food for thought and nothing overly serious at this point. I am not even posting thumbnails. Huge grains of salt. This is the type of salty the world needs. The faint dream of flakes flying on Halloween. Hey, my first 10/31 in Tennessee as a little kid, it happened! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 It's been pretty sad watching the precip chances slowly ebb for plateau areas as Francine has moved toward us. Had a 20 second decent shower and that's about it. Some Hires models showing some storm chances this PM. MRX also notes the non 0 tornado risk in southern plateau and valley areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 32 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It's been pretty sad watching the precip chances slowly ebb for plateau areas as Francine has moved toward us. Had a 20 second decent shower and that's about it. Some Hires models showing some storm chances this PM. MRX also notes the non 0 tornado risk in southern plateau and valley areas. The GFS really missed with Francine. It was too far to the east. I think the actual storm is in the Ozarks now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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