Carvers Gap Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Potential record lows in many areas tomorrow morning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 If Knoxville gets to 56 tonight, they will break a record set in 1875. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: If Knoxville gets to 56 tonight, they will break a record set in 1875. Nice! Already 58 here and in the 40s Already in the higher elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 21 Author Share Posted August 21 After Daniel Boone mentioned August 1976, I went back and looked over the whole month. We had 11 mornings in the 40s that month, including several days in the mid-40s in early August. That is insanely cold for August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 We are sitting at 50F here at TRI, and that is a new record low. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 21 Author Share Posted August 21 Dropped to 48 degrees this morning after a high of 72 yesterday. That's pretty hard to beat for August. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Barely scratched the 50's here yesterday at 59.5. The high was 81.5. Still felt nice, but that August sun is hot on the skin even if the air temps are low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 22 Author Share Posted August 22 50 here this morning. Looks like at least one more heatwave to close out August. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottorec Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 Always think back on the little cool spells before Labor Day. Gets me ready for football (and school many years ago). Never fails to heat back up for that first game though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Pretty solid week 3-4 signal for a cool down. In the meantime, it is gonna be HOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Lower temps & lower humidity with these dry conditions spells trouble as we lose more leaves to the drought. I was in Gatlinburg this past weekend. They are dry also. We need a week of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Snow fell in the Sierra Nevada mountains for first time in August since 2003. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Fire season in the Mountain West due to the El Nino last winter has been a beast this summer. I think this Fall we are going to continue to see some pretty wild swings here in regards to BN and AN temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 @GaWx, was it you who was mentioning that WxBell has a problem with their CFSv2 ext graphics - meaning always too cold? If so what is your best source besides the government panels? I don't think the CFS graphics on WxBell are even usable right now due to that flaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @GaWx, was it you who was mentioning that WxBell has a problem with their CFSv2 ext graphics - meaning always too cold? If so what is your best source besides the government panels? I don't think the CFS graphics on WxBell are even usable right now due to that flaw. The Tropical Tidbits CFS graphics are much more realistic imho: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024082700&fh=6 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 The Weeklies could easily be wrong as we are now pretty much at shoulder season. Meteorological summer is over in four days. I am sure it will get hot again, but Euro weeklies(especially the control) and the GEFS ext are fairly adamant with a September cool down. Does it continue into October? That is anyone's guess, and conflicting signals are present in that regard. But I would not be surprised to see a 3-4 week timeframe that averages BN for temps, but only after this week. The change next week should be notable, almost 20-25 degrees cooler than what we will see Thursday. TIFWIW. I still don't have a firm winter forecast out. Generally, (and to repeat) I think Nov-Dec is E TN's best shot at winter. There is a fairly strong signal for a warm Jan-Feb. However, that could easily change as this winter is a bit more tricky than normal IMHO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Here is why I am a bit reluctant. These are the d8-14 analogs. They likely don't give us much of a hint at winter, but sometimes those summer analogs do reveal a thing or two. Want to take one guess why I am skittish on a torch? The quadruple weighted analog year.... 20050904 20060831 20090914 20010922 20050823 20090919 20090909 20040924 20090924 20050828 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php @John1122, are any of those other years good ones? I see 2005 weighted pretty heavily as well. @Daniel Boone? @Met1985? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Here is why I am a bit reluctant. These are the d8-14 analogs. They likely don't give us much of a hint at winter, but sometimes those summer analogs do reveal a thing or two. Want to take one guess why I am skittish on a torch? The quadruple weighted analog year.... 20050904 20060831 20090914 20010922 20050823 20090919 20090909 20040924 20090924 20050828 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php @John1122, are any of those other years good ones? I see 2005 weighted pretty heavily as well. @Daniel Boone? @Met1985? Yeah 2005 was definitely a good winter that I remember. A lot better than our previous. I like that we finally might see a weak ENSO steering current instead of moderate or super. This latest torch is pretty spot on and I'm seeing signs of the northern jet coming alive already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 It's extremely early in the season for the first of September but the indices are falling in place as well to see a significant cool down or early Fall weather... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 28 Author Share Posted August 28 Winter 2004-2005 wasn't great here. December had a very cold shot with a couple inches of snow and lows near 0. Jan and Feb alternated between mild and wet then dry and cold. Jan had a couple of dry cold shots that had trace to 1/2 inch snow shower type days. There were a couple of snow events in February but they weren't huge, around 2 inches each. It actually turned cold in March and the month was frigid vs normal, with a couple of snow events. Overall Dec and March were BN, Jan and Feb AN with BN snow. Nov 2004 was very mild. Around +5.5. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 7 hours ago, John1122 said: Winter 2004-2005 wasn't great here. December had a very cold shot with a couple inches of snow and lows near 0. Jan and Feb alternated between mild and wet then dry and cold. Jan had a couple of dry cold shots that had trace to 1/2 inch snow shower type days. There were a couple of snow events in February but they weren't huge, around 2 inches each. It actually turned cold in March and the month was frigid vs normal, with a couple of snow events. Overall Dec and March were BN, Jan and Feb AN with BN snow. Nov 2004 was very mild. Around +5.5. Thanks, man. What about 05-06? Sorry, I should have clarified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 9 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yeah 2005 was definitely a good winter that I remember. A lot better than our previous. I like that we finally might see a weak ENSO steering current instead of moderate or super. This latest torch is pretty spot on and I'm seeing signs of the northern jet coming alive already... Yes, if it will stay weak...we might be in business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Here is why I am a bit reluctant. These are the d8-14 analogs. They likely don't give us much of a hint at winter, but sometimes those summer analogs do reveal a thing or two. Want to take one guess why I am skittish on a torch? The quadruple weighted analog year.... 20050904 20060831 20090914 20010922 20050823 20090919 20090909 20040924 20090924 20050828 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php @John1122, are any of those other years good ones? I see 2005 weighted pretty heavily as well. @Daniel Boone? @Met1985? We had horrible flooding in this corner of the state and throughout northern GA in September 2009. I think I ended that month with over 17" of rain and I don't think there was a single tropical system involved. Looks like we topped out at 97 at KCHA yesterday. Today's official forecast is for 100. At no point did the heat index exceed the air temp yesterday. It actually didn't feel too horrible. Just hot, not sticky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 2 hours ago, dwagner88 said: We had horrible flooding in this corner of the state and throughout northern GA in September 2009. I think I ended that month with over 17" of rain and I don't think there was a single tropical system involved. Looks like we topped out at 97 at KCHA yesterday. Today's official forecast is for 100. At no point did the heat index exceed the air temp yesterday. It actually didn't feel too horrible. Just hot, not sticky. Interesting about the flooding which preceded a doozy of a winter. There is a line of thinking that normal to AN rainfall during fall is a signal for a trough in that area. That might be something to watch for. Right now, September looks rainy but not excessive. Oct could be pretty dry...just looking at ext runs. That said, one tropical system could change all of that one way or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 28 Author Share Posted August 28 5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Thanks, man. What about 05-06? Sorry, I should have clarified. December was -5 but would be heavy rain, then snow showers to follow with several trace to 1/2 inch events. January was a torch at +7.5 and February was -4 to -6 but the cold lined up better than December and we had several snow events. There was a 1-3 inch event the first week of Feb, a big one just before Valentines day for a lot of us, but Knoxville to Chattanooga didn't do so well and for some reason SWVa and NE areas along the Va border didn't do as well. Pennington Gap says 2 inches, Abington 3, Tri only recorded around 2 inches at the airport, with Greenville getting similar amounts. However Erwin and Elizabethton got 4-5 inches. Above 2500 feet in the far east were using a yard stick, Mountain City got around 14-16 inches, LeConte got 34 inches, 9 in Gatlinburg at the ski area. The Plateau areas got 6-9 inches from here to Jamestown and down to Crossville. Morgan County around Lancing got 4.5 inches, Norris around 4 inches, Morristown around 2 inches, less than two around Knox and Oak Ridge, a trace around Nooga. It warmed dramatically a few days later and rained, then around a week later another 1-3 inches fell across most of the East. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 1 hour ago, John1122 said: December was -5 but would be heavy rain, then snow showers to follow with several trace to 1/2 inch events. January was a torch at +7.5 and February was -4 to -6 but the cold lined up better than December and we had several snow events. There was a 1-3 inch event the first week of Feb, a big one just before Valentines day for a lot of us, but Knoxville to Chattanooga didn't do so well and for some reason SWVa and NE areas along the Va border didn't do as well. Pennington Gap says 2 inches, Abington 3, Tri only recorded around 2 inches at the airport, with Greenville getting similar amounts. However Erwin and Elizabethton got 4-5 inches. Above 2500 feet in the far east were using a yard stick, Mountain City got around 14-16 inches, LeConte got 34 inches, 9 in Gatlinburg at the ski area. The Plateau areas got 6-9 inches from here to Jamestown and down to Crossville. Morgan County around Lancing got 4.5 inches, Norris around 4 inches, Morristown around 2 inches, less than two around Knox and Oak Ridge, a trace around Nooga. It warmed dramatically a few days later and rained, then around a week later another 1-3 inches fell across most of the East. Not that drawing much from late August analogs means much, but that analog package yesterday featured about 2/3 of the years having a very cold month or two. Wild swings. Blend those three sets together, and that is a respectable winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 As we all know, 09-10 was a great Winter , cold and snow wise. However, it was a Nino as we know as well. The 05-06 Winter wasn't great overall in the upper east Tn and SW Va Valley areas as John touched on. Early to mid February did feature a couple decent 2-4 inch Snow events in the lower eles with more of course higher. Neither stayed on very long. Hopefully, the Nina continues to be a slow strengthening one. If it does I'd be confident of at least a decent Winter. However, as we have seen recently, the PDO and WPO have been playing havoc. Hopefully, changes within those areas will evolve to our benefit. Also, the SST'S off Newfoundland are boiling now. We need those to cool substantially. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 KCHA is definitely going to blow past 100 today. 99 already. We had a great run of nearly 5 years with no triple digit heat, but it has come in somewhat of an abundance this summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 29 Author Share Posted August 29 It's was my hottest day of the year. But it's storming now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 https://www.wate.com/news/smoky-mountains/flint-gap-fire-in-the-smokies/ Burn ban now in effect for Rutherford county that I live in. The leaves are coming down like snow. Many are green with some yellow. My yard is the worse I have ever seen it. Completely dead. Looking forward to the cooler days but if we don’t get rain it’s going to get ugly I’m afraid. My neighbor is a forest fire fighter. He said right now it would take 5-7” to end our drought. Any rain would help but with the driest months coming up. He said pay attention. We live next to the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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