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14 hours ago, John1122 said:

Picked up over an inch of rain today and my third heavy rain/thunder event of the day is underway. 

This pattern looks to last 5 or 6 more days at least. Incredible shift in pattern from the first 40 or so days of summer.  The Nino to Nina 1995 patten also abruptly shifted from extended hot and dry to extended rainy and cooler. It started later and ended later than this one, though. 

I want to say that summer started hot, went cool, and then ended hot before settling into a pattern that would preview the epic winter to come. While I don't want to get lost in a 1995-96 analog, I will say what we're experiencing now has been refreshing in every sense of the word. 6-8 weeks ago, the way local conjecture sounded, I was concerned we would torch during these dog days. Instead for most of middle TN outside an UHI...we may not taste 90 the rest of the month. A remarkable stretch purely on timing alone. It currently feels more like 4/23 or 10/23 outside. Plenty of summer left but right now, it's look like a passing grade will verify. 

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5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Absolutely crazy that me and my family were there 13 days ago in that spot.

Yes, I remember that I knew someone who just went out there!  By a miracle, nobody was hit by any of those flying rocks.  The still photos are even wilder.  There was some big stuff in the air!!!!

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yes, I remember that I knew someone who just went out there!  By a miracle, nobody was hit by any of those flying rocks.  The still photos are even wilder.  There was some big stuff in the air!!!!

Agree.  When you see the black & grey coming out of those into the sky.  You know it’s a serious eruption.  I believe we are going to see more volcanoes becoming active in America.  We are way past due for it to happen.  If Yellowstone was to go off then we all know that would be a very bad situation for America.  

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2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Agree.  When you see the black & grey coming out of those into the sky.  You know it’s a serious eruption.  I believe we are going to see more volcanoes becoming active in America.  We are way past due for it to happen.  If Yellowstone was to go off then we all know that would be a very bad situation for America.  

I think this deal was of geothermal origin.  Steamboat maybe has similar types of events....big rocks and better be way back when it goes.  It looks like this came from the sapphire pool in Biscuit Basin.  I have done a lot of fishing in the YNP area.  There is so much volatility.  Earthquake Lake has an amazing history.  I hope you all had a great time.  It is one of the best places on Earth.  I have done some serious flyfishing in that area.  The crowds of recent years have forced me to look at other places - like 3x more people than what it used to be.  We really like Island Park and the Paradise Valley - try getting a place w/ the Emigrant Peak view if you haven't already.    This summer, we ended up fishing on another volcano, and also sight seeing in the Cascades.  

But truly, there are so many ways to get into trouble in YNP...it looks tame but it really is not even remotely.  Hey, one time I was fishing the Fountain Flats area.  I was wading at dusk and having a good go of it.  I happened to look down, and there was a massive spring that I was about to step into - crazy deep.  It shook me pretty good.  I don't wade in that area much any more.  But for every crazy story, there is the one where I got to fish in 5" of snow on a June 14th many years ago.  

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@John1122, that summer of '93 analog is growing on me.  93-94 was cold, right?  Super cold on the Plateau and froze the interstate in Knoxville.  1993 has remarkable similarities to this one, especially the flooding in the Upper Plains(was mid Plains/mid-West in 93) and drought here.  It is one reason why I am less than confident about this winter.   Seems like I saw you mention that (could have been 95).   94-95 would work as I think we came out of a warm Nino winter and then maybe went Nina?

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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

@John1122, that summer of '93 analog is growing on me.  93-94 was cold, right?  Super cold on the Plateau and froze the interstate in Knoxville.  1993 has remarkable similarities to this one, especially the flooding in the Upper Plains(was mid Plains/mid-West in 93) and drought here.  It is one reason why I am less than confident about this winter.   Seems like I saw you mention that (could have been 95).   94-95 would work as I think we came out of a warm Nino winter and then maybe went Nina?

92-93 was ENSO neutral. But summer of 1993 was hot. I remember there was a 20+ day 90+ streak in Knoxville. 

Jan 94 had an as cold or colder version of what we experienced in January this year. It was one of those epic cold fronts that dropped temps 30 or so degrees in a few hours. Knoxville got heavy freezing rain, with a couple inches of snow on top of it that got set like concrete by late afternoon because the temps fell from low 30s to single digits in a few hours. Well below zero cold followed, around -15 here with highs in the single digits over around 6 or 7 inches of snow cover. We didn't get the freezing rain that areas south of here got. 

94-95 was a moderate El Nino, it transitioned to a moderate La Nina in 95-96. '95 has been similar to this summer here.  Hot start, very dry. It flipped wet and cooler. 94-95 was also a rising QBO. It peaked in June 1995 and was positive but falling through the end of 1995. Sept-Dec 1995 were all BN. We had evening snow showers one day imby in mid-October. 

Very different pattern in the upper Midwest that year though. They set heat records. Some places in Wisconsin approached 110 in July 1995. 

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Last Friday morning saw the driest ground conditions I can remember for quite some time around here. Since then, I've had 5.70" of rain and now I have mushrooms in the front yard. Talk about a big swing. 

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22 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

Last Friday morning saw the driest ground conditions I can remember for quite some time around here. Since then, I've had 5.70" of rain and now I have mushrooms in the front yard. Talk about a big swing. 

Rained pretty hard all night last night. Now I’m up to 7.70”. This is one of the more shocking summertime pattern changes I can ever remember. 

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1 hour ago, dwagner88 said:

Rained pretty hard all night last night. Now I’m up to 7.70”. This is one of the more shocking summertime pattern changes I can ever remember. 

Yeah this is an abrupt change that is pattern related and not tropical related from one extreme to the other. 

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We (MBY) have finally cashed-in with some MCS-ish systems during the past couple of days.  We have had some heavy rainfall at times along with some minor urban flooding.

Just an item of interest.  MRX used FB for a Q&A session a couple of days ago.   It is super interesting.  Of note, they talk about radar being able to pick up trains on clear and stable nights across the Great Plains.  Whoever answered the question new the exact train line.   There was also some discussion about each AFD is uniquely written, and you can tell who the forecaster is when they write.   I have always suspected that we know the person who writes about mountain wave events.  Anyway, some great questions and answers are found in that FB post by MRX.

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My power just came back on. Trees down everywhere with that complex that hit around 4:30 to 5:30. Roads were blocked all over the county and powerlines were down with them. There were 14,000 meters out at one point. With the population here, 14,000 is almost every meter that LaFollette utilities serves here. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Heads up for the Eastern part of TN. Looks like that line of storms is getting it's act together. 

It totally split as it came through west of I-81.  This has been the problem all summer.  We are definitely doing better on water.  But one really, hot dry week and we will be right back in the barrel.  It is nice to see things greening up though!

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