Summer-Fall 2024 Weather Disco Med/Long Range

[fountainguy97]

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

La Nina winters tend to have a very bad cold shot prior to mid-winter - as in withering.  It is very difficult to know where that eastern boundary is going to set up.  I have seen some crazy cold shots during Nina winters.  We want the Nina to be weak.  The QBO just flipped positive, so we are gonna be dealing with that this winter.  It will be interesting to see if we have less Atlantic blocking.  TBH, I am not sure we want Atlantic blocking if it is going to hook into an eastern ridge.  We need that PDO to flip and get and EPO ridge out there.  This does look like a winter where the default trough is going to tuck into the Mountain West.  I just sense come variability this winter that might cause some problems in forecasting...Yeah, that sounds like trying to sense the force, and that is not a good forecasting strategy.

My best winters here so far have been weak/mid Nina's. So honestly I'm not super negative on this winter. The last two have been mostly nothing burgers for the mountains. 
 

I haven't taken a peak at winter yet. I feel like the last few winters we haven't gotten the pacific to work with us at all. The last two winters have been mostly -PNA with shots of +pna. And a dominate -PDO for years now. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

My best winters here so far have been weak/mid Nina's. So honestly I'm not super negative on this winter. The last two have been mostly nothing burgers for the mountains. 
 

I haven't taken a peak at winter yet. I feel like the last few winters we haven't gotten the pacific to work with us at all. The last two winters have been mostly -PNA with shots of +pna. And a dominate -PDO for years now. 

Ditto that.

[Matthew70]

Well, the trend continues.  The rain just does not materialize..  the drought is growing by the week.  I’m watering my trees, but they are definitely struggling and leaves are already falling.

[John1122]

Just had another soaker. The storms aren't large in area but they absolutely flood down rain. They are odd in that the thunder is frequent as they approach, then it rains very hard with virtually no thunder, then once they pass you hear the thunder again. 

The Euro ens is advertising around 200 percent of normal rain across the forum area the next two weeks. We'll see if it comes to pass but I'm definitely off to a good start imby. 

[John1122]

17 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not a drop here.  TRI struggles to break droughts.  We are in a rain shadow anyway.  I can see the lines of rain hit the dry air and poof.  I do think that problem will slowly erode this week and allow some rain in.  BUT, we had better get rain in the next two weeks.  Even though temps are expected to moderate in the near to longer term...rain chances drop on modeling as we head into fall.

John, send some of that rain over here!  Congrats on the score.

It's crazy that probably 80 miles as the crow files means 15 inches or so difference in average yearly rainfall totals. 

[John1122]

Looking at the QBO readings, it's rising currently and on average it rises for 7 months then begins falling. It should begin falling in Jan or February. From what I read a few years ago, the actual reading didn't matter regarding enhanced blocking, the direction of the QBO is what mattered. If the reading was negative but rising, it meant less blocking. If it was positive but falling, it meant blocking was more likely. 

[dwagner88]

NWS forecast: High 92 80% rain

Actual Conditions at KCHA: 97 HI 104 no rain in sight.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, dwagner88 said:

NWS forecast: High 92 80% rain

Actual Conditions at KCHA: 97 HI 104 no rain in sight.

Tough to get appreciable rain to fall into this hot, dry air.  It is basically hitting a wall west of me.  Let's hope it chips away at that during the next few days.  This is going to be tough to break.

[Carvers Gap]

Most of what is coming through TRI just dissipating rapidly.  I was thinking today (and I said this before) that I have seen more snowstorms during winter than I have seen meaningful rain since May.  Rain has become as rare as snow!  LOL.  Getting a few sprinkles as I type this....but that will be it for this round.  You know it is bad when the rain drops are kicking up dust.

[1234snow]

KTRI got to 95 today which broke the record of 94

[John1122]

I've gotten three rounds and over an inch of rain. The last storm packed a punch and my power is out. 

[Carvers Gap]

Sitting on maybe 2-3 hundredths at best. We have a shot to break that tomorrow.  Not sure I remember what a good soaker looks like.  

[John1122]

Had about an hour and fifteen minutes of moderate rain there around 1 to 2:15. No thunder or anything in it.  Picked up another .26 inches. Looks like some more in the pipeline, looked like MRX had Tri area with some higher chances. Pretty much the entire forum area should get in on it over the next several days.

[Carvers Gap]

No additional rain IMBY.  It looks like SW VA is getting some relief as rain is sliding across that area.  Rain is having a very tough  time getting into the norther Valley - just dissipates on the spot.  Pretty big miss for us, even if we get some rain later in the day.  We need every drop.  

[Carvers Gap]

Starting to see sycamores and river bottom trees turn yellow.  Some of that is caused by heat stress - probably most of it.  But there is definitely color showing on I-26 crossing Bays Mountain.  I think most of that is drought, but it is a bit surreal to see that on July 18th.  Even though, we haven't had any rain IMBY, it is cloudy today.  The clouds are definitely bringing out the yellow colors.

[Carvers Gap]

It wasn't a lot, but we can make do with that if we keep getting more this week.  Maybe 0.15-0.20 of rain fell IMBY this afternoon.  The birds were out in force during the rain...robins, juvenile blue birds, and others were taking advantage of the rain.  It may take several months for yards to recover here...maybe even 6-12 months for full recovery.

[dwagner88]

Not a single drop again today. 80% yesterday, 70% today and nothing. It's been a long time since I've seen a forecast bust that badly two days in a row. At least it isn't hot anymore. Only mid 80's under cloud cover.

[Stovepipe]

I'm happy to have some cooler temps but man, my location got very unlucky with the rain yesterday and today.  Caryville, Greenback, and even Oak Ridge stole all my thunder!  The storms would build and either fizzle or divert around Knox County leaving me with 0.06 today and less than 0.20 yesterday and night.  Hopefully we get better luck with the rain the next several days.

[Matthew70]

Hardly any rain IMBY also.  South of 40 pretty much struck out.  My redbud is losing leaves rapidly now.  Many of the trees on the woods behind me are losing leaves.  My yard is gone.  Definitely will be overseeding in the fall if we can get rains to soften the ground for aeration.  It’s going to be fall here early.  A large brush fire broke out locally here Sunday.  It was put out thankfully.  Lower humidity is nice but increases fire danger the longer this drought goes on.  

[Carvers Gap]

Ain't nobody (sorry, had to roll w/ that) wants to be the one talk about BN temps for the next several weeks of summer.  Because if that signal is wrong (and climatology says it should be wrong), that is all kinds of egg on one's face.  But I am just saying, medium, LR, and ext LR modeling is not looking bad in terms of temps.  In fact, if right, fall would be right on time or a bit early (gasp).  But I am not gonna be the one to say that or make a long post on it.  LOL.

@Holston_River_Rambler, we are gonna need a wooly worm update.

[jaxjagman]

On 7/16/2024 at 8:07 PM, *Flash* said:

That December was brutal statewide but Jonas made up for it (at least locally) the next month when our two-week window finally opened. I remember doing some digging on this winter 8 years ago. BNA had the 27th snowiest winter during the 9th warmest winter in recorded history. Speaks to the fact that it only takes one hit to make a winter. Last year was reminiscent to this in several ways. 

Also, let's hope the mild early winter potential doesn't produce another severe weather episode. Forget the anomalies, that's my greatest concern. 

Not really sure,way to soon to believe any model right now but right now it sure looks like a SER into late winter and possibly a active early severe season

[jaxjagman]

But who knows,some are close to being a more "Modoki",that could just as well be winter.look at how warm it still is off of East Asia,SST'S

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Not really sure,way to soon to believe any model right now but right now it sure looks like a SER into late winter and possibly a active early severe season

You are bringing the good stuff, man.  

Yeah, SER signal for sure.  BN SSTs over phases 7-8 of the MJO and AN SSTs 4-6.  That means the MJO is likely in warm phases.  So, we are gonna need the IO to say super quiet in order to keep the MJO at low amplitude.  IO looks normal or very slightly above in regards to SST.  Jan-Feb look like a torch.  In the eastern half of the forum, we are gonna likely have to score early.  But as weird as winters have been lately....I don't have a good sense.  What do you have on the PDO, Jax?

[John1122]

Doing some reading today, the QBO westerly, aka positive, may be to our benefit due to La Nina. During neutral or La Nina, the QBO being negative actually tends to hurt our winter chances. Apparently during La Nina the QBO is much more likely to affect polar regions. During El Nino the QBO is more likely to affect the tropics. 

This study days that QBOW is more likely to produce cold air for the mid-lat continents and above average snowfall. It says that the effect is magnified during La Nina. 

 

This is from a paper I was reading. 

"During QBO W (G1, Fig. 3, second column) a 100 hPa ridge is amplified over the Bering Sea, near the base of the climatological Aleutian High44, MSLP is higher over the Arctic, and the midlatitude continents are colder and snowier. During QBO E (G2, Fig. 3, third column) there is a somewhat different wave two anomaly pattern, with low 100 hPa heights over the Bering Sea, reduced MSLP over the Arctic, and the midlatitude continents are warmer and less snowy.

After confirming a consistent result with our previous study 26 that the H-T mechanism is amplified during the La Niña period, the present study investigates the QBO teleconnection with the boreal winter surface climate of NH mid and high latitudes regions in the presence and absence of El Niño and La Niña effects. A significant modulation of the climate dynamics governing surface anomalies is observed in the zonal mean and zonally asymmetric quantities for a specific QBO phase at the centroid angle of 180° for neutral ENSO period only (– 0.4 K <Niño 3.4 index <– 0.4 K). This specific QBO phase group G1 corresponds to maximum westerly wind at 70 hPa (QBO W) and simultaneously opposite easterly maximum at 20 hPa, whereas the G2 group (QBO E) has the opposite signs.

The QBO modulations of surface temperature and snow depth in Eurasia and North America illustrates a systematic association with MSLP in the Arctic region. High-pressure conditions over the polar region induce colder temperatures over the midlatitude continents and vice-versa. It is observed that ENSO neutral and QBO W favors a high value of MSLP (>6 hPa) over the polar region (>50°N), and cold conditions (~2–4 K) with high snow depth over Eurasia and North America, and the opposite effects during QBO E. A comparison of the anomaly patterns for QBO W and QBO E shows that the response is fairly linear, with marginally stronger amplitude for QBO W. During QBO W, anticyclonic anomalies are found at 100 hPa over the Bering Sea and the high North Atlantic. This favors higher arctic MSLP, especially in the North Atlantic. The pattern of colder surface temperatures extends farther into the midlatitudes, with enhanced snowfall farther south than normal, favoring a low-index NAM23 and negative AO31. During QBO E, the Aleutian High and the trough over eastern North America at 100 hPa are reduced in amplitude such that the polar vortex is more zonally symmetric, with a region of lower MSLP over the pole. Such a high index NAM/AO flow confines polar air to higher latitudes, giving a warm anomaly across Eurasia and North America and reduced snow depth."

 

[Carvers Gap]

Finally, some decent rain has fallen IMBY today.  It has taken all week to really break down the dry weather pattern here.  I suspect this is a temporary relaxation of the drought....probably see dry weather return later in August.

[John1122]

Absolutely epic rainer here. .73 inches in 45 minutes. Looks like another wave to come unless it falters. 

[jaxjagman]

We got thunderstorms again here also,models kept showing today an inverted trough with PW'S over 1.8",hopefully those cells to the west dont die out,we could use all we can get

[*Flash*]

Got a quick inch in under an hour earlier this afternoon. Lots of pondy roads and runoffs. Stay safe driving out if you find yourself under one of these parked cells. Slow movers today. 

[Matthew70]

Yesterday was a frog strangler. Today the heaviest went around us.  Still got about .50.  The grass definitely greened up from the rain.  I was blowing leaves before the rain.  Unreal blowing leaves in July.  Hopefully we can get a lot more this week. Crossing fingers! 

[John1122]

Picked up over an inch of rain today and my third heavy rain/thunder event of the day is underway. 

This pattern looks to last 5 or 6 more days at least. Incredible shift in pattern from the first 40 or so days of summer.  The Nino to Nina 1995 patten also abruptly shifted from extended hot and dry to extended rainy and cooler. It started later and ended later than this one, though.