Summer-Fall 2024 Weather Disco Med/Long Range

[Carvers Gap]

12z ensembles depict a fairly typical cold start to winter with sever cold over Montana bleeding southeastward into the Upper South w/ the Apps as the demarcation line.  That looks has delivered some crazy cold into portions of our forum area during the past decade and a half.  I suspect we see something similar again.  The 12z GEFS, EPS, and GEPS all show another strong cold shot around d12-15.  It is possible they are a bit ahead of things....it is also possible they are sensing a very strong cold shot.  When cold is that strong on an ensemble at range....reality "could" be much colder.  

[Carvers Gap]

Go back and dig through our Nina Decembers and compare them to these ensembles at 360.  This look often delivers pretty significant cold shots.  HUGE grains o salt at this range, but a decent signal at range.