Summer-Fall 2024 Weather Disco Med/Long Range

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Spartman said:

The 12z GFS:

  I'm thinking more along the lines of a good upslope Event. Would be nice to get a phase with heavy backside Snow with added Upslope but, as of now it just doesn't look to be the Case. Need better timed alignment.

 Still plenty of waffling and adjusting time though.

[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

  I'm more thinking along the lines of a good upslope Event. Would be nice to get a phase with heavy backside Snow with added Upslope but, as of now it just doesn't look to be the Case. Need better timed alignment.

 Still plenty of waffling and adjusting time though.

Right.  I think our best chance is probably a northwest flow event.  Even that is not guaranteed.  Given the record warmth that we have experienced during October and start of November, it is startling to see such a strong cold front bust up the heat ridge over the East.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

The 12z GFS:

Evaporating snow chances in the Upper South are a way of life.  Gotta be tough at this latitude.  Welcome to the show!  Let's see what becomes of it.  We are kind of in that window where things get lost.  But Boone probably is correct that our best chances are on northwest flow - if that.  Looks like the cold front is out of sync with the GOM system.  As long as it isn't 85 degrees in November anymore, I can live with that change.  LOL.  

...all of my wife's family is from around Canton.  

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Right.  I think our best chance is probably a northwest flow event.  Even that is not guaranteed.  Given the record warmth that we have experienced during October and start of November, it is startling to see such a strong cold front bust up the heat ridge over the East.  

The good thing is this 40's Rainfall will have cooled the ground considerably.

[Daniel Boone]

Hadn't looked at 12z Runs . Next week has took the usual turn against any real cold getting here. Hopefully, they're off and revert back but, wouldn't hold my breath. 

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hadn't looked at 12z Runs . Next week has took the usual turn against any real cold getting here. Hopefully, they're off and revert back but, wouldn't hold my breath. 

Yeah, unfortunately today’s runs (including the 18z GFS) completely lost the -EPO that several runs over the past few days were showing. And it’s not like this was 2+ weeks out, it was roughly days 6-10.

I guess this type of rug pull is tolerable for now, since it’s still mid-November. If this was 2-3 weeks from now, I would be furious. 

[Carvers Gap]

Ya'll, I am not seeing big changes in ensembles at all.  Maybe I need to go back and look more carefully.  Operational runs are going to swing wildly with a potential pattern change in the works.  Also, it is worth noting that storms in the 7 day range tend to disappear and then reappear.  18z GFS is a pretty robust late, fall system.  We take that in a heartbeat.