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Right now, I am just hoping we can cool down Dec-Feb before the heat returns.  Running in +15-20 heat is not fun.  Mornings have been nice.  Afternoons have been terrible.  But we will take today with its cool air before the torch returns next week.   Next week will feel more like mid to late September....certainly not November.  
 

I still do expect this pattern to flip to winter later this month or early December...but there is certainly no consistent evidence of that on modeling...right now, just lots of much AN temps as the base pattern.  Very summer like in fact.

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59 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Crazy looking at next 2 weeks.  60/70’s highs with 40/50’s lows.  No sign on colder air.  These temps are great I do love them but in the past it was different.  The climate is changing no doubt. Floods are happening all across the globe.  I know the wx goes in cycles but this one seems different.  My grass seed is coming up beautifully.  This is definitely the perfect wx for it to grow.  Looks like my mowing season  is going well into late Nov.  At this rate I will be mowing at Christmas.  Wonder if Santa comes on a mower instead of a sleigh this year. 

It certainly looks like winter is on the wane for east Tennessee.

image.thumb.png.3af9227f069d85589097ae602fea0ec1.png

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2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Crazy looking at next 2 weeks.  60/70’s highs with 40/50’s lows.  No sign on colder air.  These temps are great I do love them but in the past it was different.  The climate is changing no doubt. Floods are happening all across the globe.  I know the wx goes in cycles but this one seems different.  My grass seed is coming up beautifully.  This is definitely the perfect wx for it to grow.  Looks like my mowing season  is going well into late Nov.  At this rate I will be mowing at Christmas.  Wonder if Santa comes on a mower instead of a sleigh this year. 

With really no to very little help from the STJ, this Winter could be a real barn burner. The MJO at least looks to be able to traverse the colder Phases. Hopefully that continues as should help counter basically everything else unlike the recent round where the intense Convection and LP formation in the Caribbean war'ed against it and helped keep the SER locked in. 

  Hopefully, during favorable MJO Periods we can get a +TNH Pattern. I just don't see much in the way of a - NAO. Strong PV and + QBO. Not good NATL. SST'S.

    Like you alluded to, things seem a bit off as well. For all we know , everything could go against the Grain.    However, We know what the reality is and where it's ultimately going from the greatest book ever written.

    

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The first image is the CANSIPS for DJF.  The second is for Dec only, and is the "best" of the three for our area.  The big theme is a persistent eastern ridge which is exactly what we are seeing now.  This is a VERY stable pattern.  @Holston_River_Rambler's favorite wx feature is present over the Aleutians.

bc6894bf-066e-4de8-b9eb-778d57e91c09.png
e17745f3-bd33-40e1-978d-b5a129912994.png

But, and there is a very big but....the CFS has been flirting with January for several weeks.  This is WHY I am not sold on January being warm.  I hold to 4-6 weeks for how long a pattern can hold during winter at this latitude.  If we get to the end of November and things are still warm.....that means the next pattern change runs Dec - midJan.  IF, IF that pattern is cooler(and it should be), then we get a much different result than the CANSIPS.  First CFS image is DJF.  Second is January.  Now, the CFS flip flops quite a bit as an understatement of its lack of commitment to any given pattern.  BUT, if that pattern verifies for January, that is a barn stormer pattern for the Upper South.  PNA (displaced slightly west) ridge which would send wicked cold south.  That CFS pattern is less likely due to the PDO situation, but it has happened and cannot be discounted.   Looks like blocking in the AO region would trump the PDO, and that is a reasonable scenario.  I don't think January is a slam dunk.  There are cold clusters of weak La Ninas for our region.  This is a good example of why.  The CFS and CANSIPS really couldn't be more different at our latitude.

299fa290-3ec7-4612-828f-ecea231905af.png
e2772be3-6260-438e-b44c-edac9efc22c5.png

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It certainly looks like winter is on the wane for east Tennessee.

image.thumb.png.3af9227f069d85589097ae602fea0ec1.png

AMO flip early 1990s is likely culprit here (not referencing other areas).  Also, and it is well documented in many threads for our sub forum, there is A LOT of snow missing in the official record.  I have slides of official NWS accumulation data from specific storms which are absent from 1990s MRX data.  We are talking 20-30" of snow missing in one season.  In fact, the snowiest season I have ever experienced in my lifetime was 2014-2015.  I had close to 30" of snow at my house for Jan-March of that winter.  Our school system which is notorious for not letting school out...ran out of days.  I think we had like 10 snow days or something like that.  The 70s were definitely colder and snowier.  So, that is my $0.02.  Climate discussion has its own thread, but I did want to mention that snow data (and lots of it) is missing.  @John1122easily has the most accurate records as his records date back at least to his grandfather.  It is the only uncorrupted source for much of the eastern half of TN that I know of.

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I have Dec-Jan as ascending(meaning more above normal with each passing month).  I am still unconvinced the opposite might occur.  This winter is playing with fire.  The longer this warm fall lasts, the more the winter becomes uncertain.  

Euro weeklies are picking up on a day14-21 cool down.  

The late tropical season is a La Nina special.  I wonder what the correlation to winter is for late landfalls to the ensuing winter?  I am gonna bet it is a cooler winter than I have.

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7 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

La Nina and boiling everywhere else.
I have forever SER with only 1-2 weeks of cooler weather twice this winter.
Wake me up for severe. 

SST chart

image.png.7b439f20239434c052712f9d18ac30a7.png

Yeah, I am inclined to agree . SST'S look terrible, particularly that never ending Sauna off Japan and south of Aleutians. If that extended into the GOA we'd have better odds at  occasional ridging over the top and + PNA. Also a greater likelihood of a+TNH Pattern. NATL. a mess as well. Warm pool off Newfoundland where you want a cold Pool. SST'S look to be set up in a way to create a shot at the warmest on Record. Hopefully not dry as well.

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Caught some flooding and desert mudslides in Israel on X. I follow one account that is 100% weather. How they managed to not comment on the war is amazing. I guess, never stop chasing? Great weather stuff straight from Israel!

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4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Caught some flooding and desert mudslides in Israel on X. I follow one account that is 100% weather. How they managed to not comment on the war is amazing. I guess, never stop chasing? Great weather stuff straight from Israel!

Israeli weather (highland snow) is a winter interest of mine.  I don't know a lot about their weather, but it seems like La Nina is good for Jerusalem snow during Jan-Feb.  Weather there(western 2/3) is very similar to here.   

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Interestingly, I am still not seeing a cold start to winter.  We have the previously mentioned mid-Nov cool down.  But the overall pattern at 500 is not budging at all.  That could be feedback in modeling.  However, the longer (and I have said this prior) that warm air pushes into December...the more likely the inevitable cold shot is centered during colder climo.  

Definitely will be interesting to track the strength of the La Nina - see John's post.  If it is weak, mischief is possible.  

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Sure enough the new seasonal Euro maps have each month cooler(though still quite warm in totality).  December is warmest.  January cooler.  February cooler - w/ the trough shifting West.  I can tell you I was not expecting to see that, though we certainly discussed it here as a possibility.  Interesting.  Overall, each month is quite warm so "cooler" is a term used relative to the previous month.  The SER looks locked-in until maybe early-mid Jan.  It seems like during weak La Nina's there is a relaxation of the SER, and cold pours southeast.  Maybe the door is open for that for a 3-4 week timeframe in the window of mid-Jan through Feb.  Again, kind of a surprising run as the ridge moves into the Southwest for the second half of winter.

That run ties in nicely to what we are seeing with the weeklies and global ensembles.  I think the start to winter looks to be quite warm, though climatology argues against it.  That said, it is still shoulder season, and we have to remember how bad modeling can be at this time of year.  

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9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I see nothing to be optimistic about in the mid-range or long-range. Getting dry again. Warm all winter. 

At least we don’t have to be teased. Better Lucy not come out at all then tempt us with the football…

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Woke to very heavy rain for a few hours this morning.  Also had a little thunder and lightning. My grass seed is absolutely beautiful. All the dead spots are now back to the way they were. A beautiful green lawn.  I will definitely be mowing well into December this year. 

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Some movement in LR modeling after d10.  That week 2-3 return to seasonal looks promising.   Talking 5-7 days in duration before the torch returns.  There really is a lack of amplification in the Lower 48.  That really prevents troughs from swinging eastward as there is now trough to swing.  Week 2-3 of Nov does have some amplification.  
 

Today is as warm as I have ever felt early November.  It felt like mid-summer.  Thermometer on the car read 86 which is insane for this time of year.  Mornings are very warm.

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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Some movement in LR modeling after d10.  That week 2-3 return to seasonal looks promising.   Talking 5-7 days in duration before the torch returns.  There really is a lack of amplification in the Lower 48.  That really prevents troughs from swinging eastward as there is now trough to swing.  Week 2-3 of Nov does have some amplification.  
 

Today is as warm as I have ever felt early November.  It felt like mid-summer.  Thermometer on the car read 86 which is insane for this time of year.  Mornings are very warm.

Reached 79.2 here. The longevity and magnitude of the heat is astounding.

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I know this runs against the recent conversational grain a bit, but this scenario has been a nagging one for the past 4-6 weeks for me.  The longer this warmth lasts into December, the more likely it pushes a likely cold snap into the coldest climo of the year.  I don't think this warmth lasts through winter.  Chances are, it could flip very quickly.  Anyway, this fits weak La Nina climatology.  This will probably be different tomorrow, but a massive EPO ridge w/ a weak NAO block is a couplet to be watched. 

a988e686-053b-46a9-9a02-8270c5ca0437.png

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The interesting thing is that the CANSIPS and Euro seasonal miss on cold quite often - blind to it.  The GFS will often sniff out a pattern change well in advance in uncanny fashion.  The Euro Weeklies ext control has something similar.  Now, the control can sniff out a cold pattern where the ensemble will not.

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