Summer-Fall 2024 Weather Disco Med/Long Range

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Did Hugo have a upper low slinging it inland too? I was just looking at a model for Helene and the long outflow cloud deck aiming at the upper low seems to remind me of Hugo:

Helene: 

 

Hugo:

 

Color schemes aren't the same, but the long outflow upper cloud deck kind of seems similar to me. 

 

Actually, I just realized I could go look at reanalysis and yeah, Hugo had a deep south upper low:

Hugo was a monster.  If it hadn't gone into a national forest, it would have been far worse than Katrina.  But oddly, I was just talking about this exact topic just a few minutes ago.  The angle into the southern Apps is very similar.  I don't think Helene will be as strong w/ the width of hurricane force winds that Hugo had, but there are some definite similarities to the track once inland.  I was at UT at the time and was very surprised to see tropical storm for winds on campus.  I don't know about the other inland low(Fujiwhara Effect) as I didn't follow stuff like that at the time.  I think the danger right now is high winds hitting trees which sit in saturated ground.  Maybe the one difference right now would be all of the rain that we already have had.  

I don't trust modeling at this point.  Some of these storms will sometimes inexplicably stall or speed up or weaken.  For now though, this looks very formidable for the southern Apps.  Great post.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah I wasn't necessarily trying to make people think it would be the same, just that Fujiwara getting it inland quickly was the similarity I was looking at. Sorry of that came across wrong. 

One thing in the NWS Hugo site shows is a compilation of what locals remember as the worst tropical system and oddly enough there was a similar situation to Hugo (with regards to flooding I suspect because of the SLPs recorded) in 1940 in the NC mountains:

 

 

 

 

[ShawnEastTN]

Yeah I wasn't necessarily trying to make people think it would be the same, just that Fujiwara getting it inland quickly was the similarity I was looking at. Sorry of that came across wrong. 
One thing in the NWS Hugo site shows is a compilation of what locals remember as the worst tropical system and oddly enough there was a similar situation to Hugo (with regards to flooding I suspect because of the SLPs recorded) in 1940 in the NC mountains:

 

 
 
 

Opal is definitely correct for me, Ivan is a close second. Interesting graphic.

[dwagner88]

So far underperforming here. Only 0.40" in my bucket. Most modeling puts out 4-7" starting late this afternoon through mid day tomorrow. If we got the winds now, the saturated ground wouldn't be an issue, but if it rains that hard all night, we will have problems in the AM. I'll be shocked if anybody goes to school tomorrow. Our friends on the other side of the mountains are going to get a generational flooding event out of this. And most of that area is inside the TN river drainage basin.

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah I wasn't necessarily trying to make people think it would be the same, just that Fujiwara getting it inland quickly was the similarity I was looking at. Sorry of that came across wrong. 

One thing in the NWS Hugo site shows is a compilation of what locals remember as the worst tropical system and oddly enough there was a similar situation to Hugo (with regards to flooding I suspect because of the SLPs recorded) in 1940 in the NC mountains:

 

 

 

 

Nah, it was perfectly stated.  I was just chiming-in on a great comparison.  I was thinking/typing out loud...stream of thought stuff.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

So far underperforming here. Only 0.40" in my bucket. Most modeling puts out 4-7" starting late this afternoon through mid day tomorrow. If we got the winds now, the saturated ground wouldn't be an issue, but if it rains that hard all night, we will have problems in the AM. I'll be shocked if anybody goes to school tomorrow.

Everything is slightly east of original modeling - so far.  We are getting hammered up here.  I notice Knoxville and Chattanoog hadn't been in the main rain band for as long.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out once Helene actually gets to this latitude.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah I wasn't necessarily trying to make people think it would be the same, just that Fujiwara getting it inland quickly was the similarity I was looking at. Sorry of that came across wrong. 

One thing in the NWS Hugo site shows is a compilation of what locals remember as the worst tropical system and oddly enough there was a similar situation to Hugo (with regards to flooding I suspect because of the SLPs recorded) in 1940 in the NC mountains:

 

 

 

 

Yeah, Opal made a wreck of the trails in the Smokies.  It probably doesn't get the press that it should.  It was a doozy.  The wind and rain from that were bad in the southern Apps.  I have been trying to think of that one all day.  I appreciate the graphic.  Opal and Hugo are probably the best matches in terms of recent tracks for my local.  It seems like I am missing one more.  

The 12z HRRR and NAM bring the eye right over MRX!

[Matthew70]

Trend to me says mid state will be lucky to get an 1”.  She sure is going east.  

[kvskelton]

High Wind Warning issued portions of east TN and SW VA starting at 8pm tonight and running through 8pm Friday.

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1251 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-081>086-098>101-VAZ001-
002-005-006-008-270400-
/O.UPG.KMRX.HW.A.0006.240927T0000Z-240928T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KMRX.HW.W.0008.240927T0000Z-240928T0000Z/
Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-
Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-
Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Dandridge,
Madisonville, Kingston, Appalachia, Arthur, Bristol VA, Benton,
Grandview, High Point, Jasper, Bullet Creek, Honaker, Huntsville,
Morristown, Lake Forest, Melvine, La Follette, White Pine, Kodak,
Rosedale, Elizabethton, Russellville, Oak Ridge, Reliance,
Pardee, Newport, Johnson City, Pine Orchard, Evanston,
Sneedville, Alpha, Etowah, Petros, Conasauga, Hiltons,
Chattanooga, Harriman, Treadway, Norma, Lone Mountain, Clear
Water, Eagle Furnace, Bristol TN, Alcoa, Palio, Mount Crest,
Harrogate-Shawanee, Whitwell, Cleveland, Bybee, Athens, Jefferson
City, Pikeville, Hansonville, Tasso, Chestnut Hill, Cartwright,
Elk Valley, Howard Quarter, South Pittsburg, Smokey Junction,
Luttrell, Fairview, Fincastle, Rockwood, Oneida, Knoxville,
Lookout Mountain, Cagle, Benhams, Strawberry Plains, Clairfield,
Lebanon, Rose Hill, Oliver Springs, Harrisburg, Happy Valley,
Signal Mountain, Norton, Loudon, Spring City, Abingdon,
Dentville, Clinton, Lenoir City, Sevierville, Sweetwater,
Monteagle, Kyles Ford, Paulette, Seymour, Lone Oak, Coeburn, Big
Stone Gap, Norris Lake, Pigeon Forge, Caryville, Royal Blue, Big
Spring, White Oak, Powells Crossroads, Maynardville, Elgin,
Mooresburg, Jellico, South Holston Dam, Springdale, Wise, Old
Washington, Bradbury, Sharps Chapel, Brayton, Archville, McMahan,
Parksville, Sandlick, Martin Springs, Kingsport, Slick Rock, Bean
Station, Old Cumberland, Bearden, Maryville, Greeneville,
Haletown (Guild), Evensville, Dunlap, Castlewood, Dye, and Dayton
1251 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 /1151 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...East to northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 65
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
  CDT/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution
if you must drive.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

Trend to me says mid state will be lucky to get an 1”.  She sure is going east.  

Depends on which part of mid-state.  Some 12z models are cranking out high totals for portions of that area. WPC has 4-6" of rain for Nashville and points west.  The NHC has the storm flat stalling over Nashville metro.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154002.shtml?rainqpf#contents

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Depends on which part of mid-state.  Some 12z models are cranking out high totals for portions of that area. WPC has 4-6" of rain for Nashville and points west.  The NHC has the storm flat stalling over Nashville metro.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154002.shtml?rainqpf#contents

That has now been updated and expanded for middle and west TN.  A large patch of 4-6" amounts.

[John1122]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Trend to me says mid state will be lucky to get an 1”.  She sure is going east.  

I'd say most of the mid-state will get drenched. 2 to 4+ inches at least. Once it get sucked into the upper low it's likely to rain all weekend. 

[Carvers Gap]

MRX wind gust update....

https://x.com/NWSMorristown/status/1839373747046010952

 

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Someone remind me how to get a tweet to post w/ the graphic.  @Stovepipe

[John1122]

I'm confused by reporting on the storm. The weather channel is saying 120mph winds, cat 3. NHC 2pm update says 110mph winds. 

[Mr Bob]

The 4 PM UPDATE has 120 mph winds with a 951 mb pressure. 

[jaxjagman]

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A continued fast 
motion to the north-northeast is expected through landfall in the 
Florida Big Bend this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to 
turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on 
Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Helene is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is 
expected, and Helene will likely be an extremely dangerous category 
4 hurricane at landfall. Weakening is expected after Helene moves 
inland, but the fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging 
winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the 
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km).  A weather station at Venice Municipal Airport recently 
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 69 mph 
(111 km/h).  Another observation near Venice Beach reported a 
sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 
km/h). 

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air 
Force Hurricane Hunters is 951 mb (28.09 inches).

[jaxjagman]

Think it was 110 at that time the TWC said 120,maybe they were talking gust,dunno

[Carvers Gap]

We are under a flash flood warning, a flash flood watch, and a high wind warning.

[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We are under a flash flood warning, a flash flood watch, and a high wind warning.

Yeah you guys out in the mountains be safe,nothing like south of us but still

[kvskelton]

I have to admit, in nearly 60 years of being on this rock I don't think I've ever seen this notation in a NWS forecast for any of our surrounding area:

 

[Carvers Gap]

 

[Carvers Gap]

The above is just insane.  Probably just the NAM....but man.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS is not much different.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like maybe the model is not smoothing out things, but look what MRX noted....below 

[Carvers Gap]

National Weather Service Morristown TN
339 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Key Messages:

1. Major, near record flooding possible on French Broad and Pigeon
rivers, with potential for life threatening flash flooding
elsewhere. Some uncertainty in the far south and southwest though.

2. Widespread high wind event likely to unfold tonight into Friday
morning. Expectations are that power outages, and downed trees will
be very prevalent across the area.


Discussion:

A fairly historic situation is about to unfold across the southern
Appalachian region over the next 24 hours as the remnants of
Hurricane Helene move through.

Synoptically speaking, Helene is rapidly gaining strength this
afternoon and is expected to make landfall late this evening
along the Florida coast. Afterwards, it will be quickly pulled
northward through a gap between an upper low over western TN and a
ridge over the western Atlantic. Ahead of the storm, tropical
moisture will continue to be funneled into the southern Appalachian
region, making for continued light to moderate rainfall across the
forecast area before the last slug of tropical downpours arrive with
the core of Helene late tonight into Friday morning.

Flooding along with high winds continue to be the two main concerns
with this event.

Winds:

The forward speed of this hurricane after landfall is expected to be
on the extreme upper end of the spectrum. As such, the wind field
will stay intact much further inland than normal. There remains
some slight uncertainty in the center track of this storm, but the
general consensus, along with the NHC track, brings the center
across the southern TN valley around and shortly after daybreak
tomorrow morning. Ahead of the system low level winds will turn
southeasterly across the mountains, with winds in the higher terrain
ramping up to warning levels by around 2 AM tonight. As the core of
the system approaches the southern TN valley, winds in the lower
elevations should ramp up considerably, especially down the TN
valley as pressure gradients rapidly tighten. Those areas should see
warning level winds arriving in the 5-7am time frame roughly.
Believe that there will be some widespread areas of 55-65 mph winds
in the TN valley, the plateau, and even areas up into our VA
counties. Most trees still have their leaves on them, and these
winds will occur with very saturated soils. As such, expect
widespread power outages to occur tonight and tomorrow. Went ahead
and upgraded the watch to a warning and now have our entire CWA is
now covered by a high wind warning. This excludes our NC counties
which are in a Tropical Storm Warning. I`m quite sure there will be
some locations that do not see winds close to these values. But I
think the likelihood of warning level gusts and resulting impacts
warrants the upgrade.

Rain & Flooding:

Increasing southeasterly winds across the Appalachians will result
in some rainshadowing effects and will cut down on additional
rainfall north of I-40 relative to the southern valley tonight into
Friday. However saturated soils mean that any additional rains will
go immediately to runoff. Couple this with the immense amount of
rains expected on the NC side of the border and some historic river
flooding is expected in area rivers. The Pigeon and French Broad
rivers in Newport will be very close to record crests with this
event and that`s not to speak of the flash flooding potential across
the area. The current forecast for the French Broad vier at
newport is 23`, which is one foot shy of the record crest set in
1867! So, this is certainly an impressive event to say the least.
Further south, additional rainfall amounts of 3-5" are expected in
the southern valley and southern plateau with the approach/passing
of the core of Helene. The uncertainty here is that those amounts
closely match the 3hr and 6hr flash flood guidance values. Will the
rainfall rates and amounts be enough on any time scale to overcome
that and cause runoff and flooding issues? I`m not entirely sure.
However, tropical events like this have a tendency to over perform,
so will keep those areas within the flood watch and continue to
advertise the possibility of flooding across the entirety of our
forecast area with the remainder of this event.

 

[nrgjeff]

Well now my friends, this is very unusual. Mr. Teasdale from the original Red Dawn.
High wind warning in Vols orange. 
TS warning in Alabama more than Georgia color. Does that mean anything for Saturday?
Then there are models with a narrow swath of 50-60 mph winds between Chatty and Knox. Is that the PNG above that does not open? I'll believe it when I see it..

But for work, I have adjusted the Def Con accordingly.
Good night to read A Wrinkle in Time. On a dark and stormy night.. Book specifically says it's a tropical system. It's ON!!


 

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambleranother interesting analog might be the superstorm of ‘93.  Similar origin, track, and strength.   Wonder if it had a low to the west?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Rambleranother interesting analog might be the superstorm of ‘93.  Similar origin, track, and strength.   Wonder if it had a low to the west?

I think that one just formed and raced poleward. But yeah maybe a similar track. May be driving to Kingsport tomorrow AM. Could be fun. Hopefully I survive if I end up going! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Was just reading in the main tropical thread that recon had to abort from the eye due to an extreme updraft. Apparently similar wording was used for Hugo? Of course extreme updrafts in hurricane eyes may be pretty normal too. 
 

https://x.com/erin_kwx/status/1839453447902433339?s=46&t=KMZWtmm9xSWkLJtvZXn39g

edit to add the link to that x post