Summer-Fall 2024 Weather Disco Med/Long Range

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Spartman said:

The 12z GFS:

  I'm thinking more along the lines of a good upslope Event. Would be nice to get a phase with heavy backside Snow with added Upslope but, as of now it just doesn't look to be the Case. Need better timed alignment.

 Still plenty of waffling and adjusting time though.

[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

  I'm more thinking along the lines of a good upslope Event. Would be nice to get a phase with heavy backside Snow with added Upslope but, as of now it just doesn't look to be the Case. Need better timed alignment.

 Still plenty of waffling and adjusting time though.

Right.  I think our best chance is probably a northwest flow event.  Even that is not guaranteed.  Given the record warmth that we have experienced during October and start of November, it is startling to see such a strong cold front bust up the heat ridge over the East.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

The 12z GFS:

Evaporating snow chances in the Upper South are a way of life.  Gotta be tough at this latitude.  Welcome to the show!  Let's see what becomes of it.  We are kind of in that window where things get lost.  But Boone probably is correct that our best chances are on northwest flow - if that.  Looks like the cold front is out of sync with the GOM system.  As long as it isn't 85 degrees in November anymore, I can live with that change.  LOL.  

...all of my wife's family is from around Canton.  

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Right.  I think our best chance is probably a northwest flow event.  Even that is not guaranteed.  Given the record warmth that we have experienced during October and start of November, it is startling to see such a strong cold front bust up the heat ridge over the East.  

The good thing is this 40's Rainfall will have cooled the ground considerably.

[Daniel Boone]

Hadn't looked at 12z Runs . Next week has took the usual turn against any real cold getting here. Hopefully, they're off and revert back but, wouldn't hold my breath. 

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hadn't looked at 12z Runs . Next week has took the usual turn against any real cold getting here. Hopefully, they're off and revert back but, wouldn't hold my breath. 

Yeah, unfortunately today’s runs (including the 18z GFS) completely lost the -EPO that several runs over the past few days were showing. And it’s not like this was 2+ weeks out, it was roughly days 6-10.

I guess this type of rug pull is tolerable for now, since it’s still mid-November. If this was 2-3 weeks from now, I would be furious. 

[Carvers Gap]

Ya'll, I am not seeing big changes in ensembles at all.  Maybe I need to go back and look more carefully.  Operational runs are going to swing wildly with a potential pattern change in the works.  Also, it is worth noting that storms in the 7 day range tend to disappear and then reappear.  18z GFS is a pretty robust late, fall system.  We take that in a heartbeat.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ya'll, I am not seeing big changes in ensembles at all.  Maybe I need to go back and look more carefully.  Operational runs are going to swing wildly with a potential pattern change in the works.  Also, it is worth noting that storms in the 7 day range tend to disappear and then reappear.  18z GFS is a pretty robust late, fall system.  We take that in a heartbeat.

Yeah true, lol. Was pondering over that earlier and was curious to whether ensembles changed much but, didn't feel up to checking. Did however, read a little in the main forum and they're all basically buying into today's warmer Model Runs. I guess the way things have gone for so long it causes most to lean to the warmer outcomes.

[John1122]

The Canadian is still singing a wintery tune. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC "almost" pops an inland runner Miler A.  The GFS is more of an Ohio Valley special which deepens and pushes NW flow into the area.  Either way, chances are increasing that higher elevations across the Plateau and Apps are gonna see some snowfall during that timeframe.  I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow showers in the valleys of E TN.

[Carvers Gap]

I didn't know this until reading some of DT's stuff at wxrisk, but the operational Euro is out to 360(not just 240).  And that is one cold looking run at 12z.  Wow.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z CMC "almost" pops an inland runner Miler A.  The GFS is more of an Ohio Valley special which deepens and pushes NW flow into the area.  Either way, chances are increasing that higher elevations across the Plateau and Apps are gonna see some snowfall during that timeframe.  I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow showers in the valleys of E TN.

Our first guess on what may transpire with the upslope deal may be right on target after all buddy. 

[AMZ8990]

The upcoming winter of 2024-2025 could share similarities with past seasons such as 1990–1991, 1993–1994, 2003–2004, 2012–2013, 2012–2014, and 2019–2020, all of which occurred during ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions. These years were marked by unusual weather patterns, including periods of intense cold snaps, heavy snowfall, and shifts in atmospheric pressure that affected much of the northern hemisphere. Despite the absence of a strong El Niño or La Niña event, these winters brought significant temperature fluctuations and impactful storms, often driven by other atmospheric and oceanic factors. (Blizzard of 93 for small reference). In much the same way, this winter could see similar dynamics, with rapid weather changes and extremes that challenge predictions, underscoring the unpredictability of ENSO-neutral winters when they occur.  

[AMZ8990]

  There is a growing likelihood that we could see a transition into La Niña conditions by December 2024, based on current oceanic and atmospheric data. However, there is still some uncertainty in these predictions. Climate models and meteorologists often have confidence in forecasting La Niña or El Niño conditions up to a few months in advance, but these transitions can be influenced by various factors, including the behavior of the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere.  Currently, the consensus among many forecast models suggests that La Niña conditions are more probable for the winter of 2024-2025, especially considering that ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have been showing signs of cooling. However, there is still room for uncertainty, as some models indicate the possibility of ENSO-neutral or even a delayed onset of La Niña. In short, while the chance of La Niña forming is high, the exact timing, strength, and duration remain somewhat uncertain.  

[*Flash*]

I still have many questions about this winter. For instance, I'm a bit worried the pattern goes warmer longer after our seasonally cool start to December and that we have a substantial thaw in January. For February, all bets are off as the ENSO relaxes. Gut applied to recent climo and analogs, we either go considerably cold or considerably warm. I advise we hope for the former, prepare for the latter. Lord knows where the equatorial teleconnections will be by then.

Like some on here, I've been reading some of Webber's recent thoughts on X and agree that a -EPO/+TNH combo may be a saving grace for the southeast this year. That said, I expect most of the DJF arctic air intrusions will invade the northern plains and points S/SSE as opposed to SE/E due to how crappy the Atlantic is setting up. It's almost cliche to mention, but I suspect I-44 and points east into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley will be a primary battle zone this year. While I don't expect an historic, blowtorch winter, I'm anticipating a two-week window after the new year for most of us to capitalize on something good. I think there will be some more fun and games next month as well. As always, time will tell...

[Daniel Boone]

51 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I still have many questions about this winter. For instance, I'm a bit worried the pattern goes warm after our seasonally cool start to December and that we have a substantial thaw in January. As for February, all bets are off as ENSO relaxes. Lord knows where the equatorial teleconnections will be by then. Like some on here, I've been reading some of Webber's recent thoughts on X and agree that a -EPO/+TNH combo may be a saving grace for the southeast this year. That said, my gut thinks most of the DJF arctic air intrusions will invade the northern plains and points S/SSE as opposed to SE/E due to how crappy the Atlantic is setting up. It's almost cliche to mention, but I suspect I-44 and points east into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley will be a primary battle zone this year. While I don't expect an historic, blowtorch winter, I'm anticipating a two-week window after the new year for most of us to capitalize on something good. I think there will be some more fun and games next month as well. As always, time will tell...

Enso right now is very weak at best as far as a Driver . The -PDO has been the big thorn , particularly the extreme warm west Pac SST'S. That area has cooled considerably recently. The Nina is finally barely a Nina and is strengthening some now but, shouldn't make it past weak. Also, a bit east based as well. So, that's much better than what it looked to be just a couple months ago. The IO is once again warming. That doesn't bode well for the MJO but, there is research that shows an effect on the Pac Ridge in conjunction with a +QBO in forcing it more Poleward of which would lend to a +TNH Pattern. 

   Hopefully, this works out if you want a surprise cold/ snowy Winter. The +QBO does tend to war against Greenland blocking. But, a +TNH can get the job done ala FEB 2015.

[*Flash*]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Enso right now is very weak at best as far as a Driver . The -PDO has been the big thorn , particularly the extreme warm west Pac SST'S. That area has cooled considerably recently. The Nina is finally barely a Nina and is strengthening some now but, shouldn't make it past weak. Also, a bit east based as well. So, that's much better than what it looked to be just a couple months ago. The IO is once again warming. That doesn't bode well for the MJO but, there is research that shows an effect on the Pac Ridge in conjunction with a +QBO in forcing it more Poleward of which would lend to a +TNH Pattern. 

   Hopefully, this works out if you want a surprise cold/ snowy Winter. The +QBO does tend to war against Greenland blocking. But, a +TNH can get the job done ala FEB 2015.

Yes sir, I’m seeing that as well!

[Carvers Gap]

There is gonna be a thaw.  Now whether that thaw is a "thaw" or spring....IDK.  Just for kicks and giggles, and it isn't overly accurate at this range.  That isn't a warm look.

 

 

[fountainguy97]

GFS with an insane run for WV. 6+ days of heavy NW flow would have those ski resorts grinning ear to ear!!

 

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

GFS with an insane run for WV. 6+ days of heavy NW flow would have those ski resorts grinning ear to ear!!

 

Dang !  3 feet at Snowshoe. I'll take our 5-6 " and be satisfied. 

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 12z CMC and Euro have a decent NW flow event on tap.  GFS it typically too progressive.  Looks like a really good chance for 5-10" of snow for folks above 3000'.  NE TN could get into the action, especially if the low doesn't trend northward(which it could).  The Euro and CMC are very good setups.  

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Both the 12z CMC and Euro have a decent NW flow event on tap.  GFS it typically too progressive.  Looks like a really good chance for 5-10" of snow for folks above 3000'.  NE TN could get into the action, especially if the low doesn't trend northward(which it could).  The Euro and CMC are very good setups.  

Hopefully, they're correct.

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully, they're correct.

I think it is going to depend on how far south that energy dives.  Trends often pull that energy north over time(we have seen it happen dozens of times).  That may well be our set-up for snow this winter...nickel and dime stuff.

[Carvers Gap]

Looking at ensembles and LR ensembles....winter is on our doorstep.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think it is going to depend on how far south that energy dives.  Trends often pull that energy north over time(we have seen it happen dozens of times).  That may well be our set-up for snow this winter...nickel and dime stuff.

Yeah true. Usually the case. 2010-11 featured alot of 2 to 5 inch deals. 13-14 basically the same other than the big Valentines day Storm. Weak Nina 95-96 as we all know was big Dog Storms. Unusual deep diving Polar Jet then. 

    Not wanting some thinking I'm saying this one will be like those but, there is a possibility of a similar setup with consistent polar Jet riding Systems particularly 2011 or 2014 like. Clippers would be back.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS now has the low pivoting over NE TN.  That is a really cold run.  Winter is on all modeling this afternoon.

[Daniel Boone]

30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS now has the low pivoting over NE TN.  That is a really cold run.  Winter is on all modeling this afternoon.

That Se traversing Jet flow with embedded Disturbances and short waves looks good. If we can get alot of that through the Winter we'll be in business. 

[Carvers Gap]

35 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

That Se traversing Jet flow with embedded Disturbances and short waves looks good. If we can get alot of that through the Winter we'll be in business. 

Weekend shift at WJHL is talking about upslope later next week.  

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Weekend shift at WJHL is talking about upslope later next week.  

That's what I heard too. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS continues to advertise a vey sharp change in our weather regime.  Winter is on its way, folks.  That is not a promise of snow, but there are certainly chances on the GFS.  LR ext(weeklies) models washed out the strength of the troughs heading east.  Now that the pattern is in range, it is a bit more chippy than what we saw on the Weeklies.  Some STRONG amplification showing up.