Carvers Gap Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 Wind chills during the afternoon of Nov 22..... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The interesting thing is that the CANSIPS and Euro seasonal miss on cold quite often - blind to it. The GFS will often sniff out a pattern change well in advance in uncanny fashion. The Euro Weeklies ext control has something similar. Now, the control can sniff out a cold pattern where the ensemble will not. Yeah, the GFS is best about detecting a change at range first anymore hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 Still flirting w/ a significant trough amplification over the East. That has some possibility. Just something to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 6z has the amplification yet again. That is is gonna hurt. Snow showers on that run - kind of upslope looking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 Western areas getting slammed with heavy snow always equals warmth for here. Hopefully that flips. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 Still hasn't managed to rain here. I'm not sure what it is about the pattern that East Tennessee/SW Va can't get rain, while it rains in basically every direction around us. Incredibly, still no big fires here. That's the most surprising aspect of this particular dry stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 All kinds of trough amplification in the East on the 12z GFS run w/ a decent Noreaster as well. I have to think the GFS is starting to dial that in. There are players on the field for a decent snowstorm in the East. I know it sounds like blasphemy with it being so warm, but that is a pretty massive trough showing up on about 2/3 of the last two days GFS runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 Pretty big pattern reshuffle showing up on the Euro Weeklies ext. This is similar to the massive headfake during early fall when modeling showed it cooling down despite overwhelming climatology which supported extended summer. We all know what the reality was. Now, it appears modeling may well (after depicting a warm start to winter) be backing off that warm start...climatology supports a cold start(cooler start). What I don't know is if modeling is sensing a pattern change....we are WAAAY overdue. The Euro Weeklies ext shift the ridge out West w/ what appears to be a ridge bellying east underneath a shallow eastern trough(edi). What I think is likely occurring is that modeling is not done transitioning to a colder eastern pattern for late Nov and December. We will see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 A cool but not brutally cold December sounds not only good but increasingly likely. Even if it’s just phantom hope based on climo-based algorithms, I’ll take the appearance of blue. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 Considering we have had some days 10-20F AN, an ensemble showing this is gonna be a shock to the system if it verifies. Those cold temps swing through and seasonal temps are left in its wake. Considering the time of year, those temps are chilly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Week leading up to Thanksgiving... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 This is a 30 day control map from the Euro Weeklies ext (now daily); 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is a 30 day control map from the Euro Weeklies ext (now daily); Ridge bridged over. If cold enough, that can yield some decent Snowfalls . The thing is, the PV is projected to continue strengthening so, unless there's a secondary lobe it'll keep much of the real cold air wrapped around it. Hopefully the projected Pattern shown comes to fruition and we can get just enough cold to get the Job done. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Ridge bridged over. If cold enough, that can yield some decent Snowfalls . The thing is, the PV is projected to continue strengthening so, unless there's a secondary lobe it'll keep much of the real cold air wrapped around it. Hopefully the projected Pattern shown comes to fruition and we can get just enough cold to get the Job done. Still pretty fluid. I think models are sensing a pretty significant pattern change. I doubt they have anything nailed down. I like the direction today! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11 Author Share Posted November 11 Lordy. This kind of storm has happened in November in the region. Obviously 1 in 50 year chance basically. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 There it is.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 12 Author Share Posted November 12 The snow event is back on the 12z gfs. Not as extreme as yesterday, but curious to see if it sticks with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 There it is - again. The Holy Grail of snow tracking is having a late season, tropical storm get entrained into a strong cold front. We have had it happen twice during the past 15 years. The GFS is flirting with it... 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: There it is - again. The Holy Grail of snow tracking is having a late season, tropical storm get entrained into a strong cold front. We have had it happen twice during the past 15 years. The GFS is flirting with it... That would be the ultimate Lift to help us through the Winter if it turns out a Dud. However, that may not be the Case as some rather subtle signs are pointing to maybe a decent Winter . The +TNH Pattern I alluded to as a possibility awhile back has gained some momentum and attention as a real Possibility due to some Driver's leaning in a supportive direction. Webber on X has a good explanation regarding this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 EuroAI goes nuclear and entrains a portion of the tropical energy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 10 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: That would be the ultimate Lift to help us through the Winter if it turns out a Dud. However, that may not be the Case as some rather subtle signs are pointing to maybe a decent Winter . The +TNH Pattern I alluded to as a possibility awhile back has gained some momentum and attention as a real Possibility due to some Driver's leaning in a supportive direction. Webber on X has a good explanation regarding this. Yes, I have thought for a while that something is "off" in LR ext modeling. For now, I tend to lean warm for winter on average, but as I have noted, I am not overly confident in that. If we flip cold for December, I think we generally follow La Nina climatology with January being a wild card month since it may turn out to be a weak signal. If Nina gets stronger, January is likely warm. That weak signal is trouble in LR forecasting IMO. In my thinking, Dec would be the cooler of the three winter months. January would be a "strong lean" warm. February would be warm. Modeling does seem to be coming around to December being cooler relative to the rest of winter. PDO probably still rules the roost, but we'll see. The winter where it got crazy cold right at Christmas with that Ana-front, and then winter (for eastern areas) went away. That might be a good analog. In the winter thread, I used two analogs. Dec and Feb played nice. January is one extreme or the other. I know there is a correlation between cool Novembers and colder winters. However, with AN rainfall for portions of fall and a late lasting hurricane season...something makes me think that connects to a colder winter for us. There are some mixed signals for sure, but I tend to lean warmer than average for DJF and feel confident about that. What I am not confident about is that we get a really good cold shot that makes us not remember the AN temps. Plateau (and westward) could have a different solution than what is mentioned above. The further west in the forum that one goes...the better chances for sustained winter. But, a weak La Nina will sometimes have cold shots push all of the way into the eastern valley and into the western Piedmont. I think the MJO probably drives the bus again....I don't think it will be favorable for long amounts of time as the dateline will have BN SSTs. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 12 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: EuroAI goes nuclear and entrains a portion of the tropical energy. The elements are there for a big phase. Timing is a hair off right now on modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Yes, I have thought for a while that something is "off" in LR ext modeling. For now, I tend to lean warm for winter on average, but as I have noted, I am not overly confident in that. If we flip cold for December, I think we generally follow La Nina climatology with January being a wild card month since it may turn out to be a weak signal. If Nina gets stronger, January is likely warm. That weak signal is trouble in LR forecasting IMO. In my thinking, Dec would be the cooler of the three winter months. January would be a "strong lean" warm. February would be warm. Modeling does seem to be coming around to December being cooler relative to the rest of winter. PDO probably still rules the roost, but we'll see. The winter where it got crazy cold right at Christmas with that Ana-front, and then winter (for eastern areas) went away. That might be a good analog. In the winter thread, I used two analogs. Dec and Feb played nice. January is one extreme or the other. I know there is a correlation between cool Novembers and colder winters. However, with AN rainfall for portions of fall and a late lasting hurricane season...something makes me think that connects to a colder winter for us. There are some mixed signals for sure, but I tend to lean warmer than average for DJF and feel confident about that. What I am not confident about is that we get a really good cold shot that makes us not remember the AN temps. Plateau (and westward) could have a different solution than what is mentioned above. The further west in the forum that one goes...the better chances for sustained winter. But, a weak La Nina will sometimes have cold shots push all of the way into the eastern valley and into the western Piedmont. I think the MJO probably drives the bus again....I don't think it will be favorable for long amounts of time as the dateline will have BN SSTs. My thoughts are right on Target with yours. Still leaning mild overall but, not the record warmest that I originally feared. The Indian Ocean continues to warm again so may mess up the MJO. Kind of a Paradox of sorts regarding that with the SST Setup as a whole along with the +QBO as historical Data suggests that Tends to augment the Pac Ridge more poleward and thereby producing the +TNH Pattern. The -PDO has weakened considerably recently, whether short term or long we don't know. So, that all is a positive irt what things originally looked like. One thing that is really something to ponder on is the NAO. As it stands, it looks to be what may play in to give us our early Season snow possibility . This feature, if defies typical driver response, may actually work against us if we get a +TNH this Winter. We had a Positive NAO during the heavy duty previous +TNH Patterns. Open for discussion as would be great to get all Opinions on this. Could be a - NAO would just lock in the Cold ( constant) but not allow the CPF Arctic cold to be around as it would be blocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 The 12z GFS and CMC are threatening to drop the hammer - meaning starting winter east of the Rockies. That is a big time trough which is getting carved out. That storm is likely going to impact the hemispheric wx pattern afterwards. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 The 12z Euro has found the cold....that is gonna leave a mark. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z Euro has found the cold....that is gonna leave a mark. There was an upgrade yesterday I believe. Whether that had any effect or not we don't really know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 The 18z GFS just about got it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Really, really nice upslope event on the 12z CMC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 17 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS just about got it. The 12z GFS: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 The GFS and Canadian bring flakes in the air for my birthday timeframe. It's a gift I'd take above most any other. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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