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15 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

This Fall is getting the 2016 vibe. I pray no severe Forest Fires break out. 

I've actually been pretty worried about the health consequences this dry weather will have for the areas that were inundated with feet of mud following the floods. That mud is going to (and probably already is) turn into dust and become airborne. There's no telling what sort of nasty stuff is in it.

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After Helene, it has gone bone dry.  Now, that dry weather is merciful to those drying to clean up and rebuild.  It would have been next to impossible(if the rains continued) to fix anything with the amount of mud.  There are also people living in tents and modified shelter right now.  So, it is probably a blessing to them.  But yeah for all the reasons mentioned above, there are potential problems ahead if we don't get some rain.  

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18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

After Helene, it has gone bone dry.  Now, that dry weather is merciful to those drying to clean up and rebuild.  It would have been next to impossible(if the rains continued) to fix anything with the amount of mud.  There are also people living in tents and modified shelter right now.  So, it is probably a blessing to them.  But yeah for all the reasons mentioned above, there are potential problems ahead if we don't get some rain.  

Agree on the needed dryout time and workable weather. Wagner hit on something that id put some thought to as well but, not to the extent as him. Allergies is what I knew it would lend to being more prominent. I was driving down the Road yesterday and someone apparently pulled out of a dusty driveway well ahead of me as I ran through a large cloud of Dust. Had Window down as was so nice out. I began sneezing with a runny nose not long afterward that continued to plague me all night. Even after taking allergy medicine.

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2 hours ago, John1122 said:

I'm hoping to squeeze out a tenth Friday night. Fortunately, the pre event and Helene dumped so much rain that the deeper soil is very moist still. In 2016 the deeper soil went dry. Root systems were burning here, well underground. 

Yeah it was dry deep then but, the foliage and exposed woodlands are dry enough to support wildfires. The Water levels are not the concern they were then due to what you mentioned.

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The amount of rain received late September has kept October looking decent in middle TN, better than 2016 and 2007, that's for sure. Granted, I'm concerned at the rate we're going heading into November. Ironically, our areas would be in rougher shape without those tropical remnants last month. If we can score a precip pattern that stalls west of the mountains, that would be ideal. 

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3 hours ago, John1122 said:

The 00z GFS was pretty wet late run, the 06 was bone dry. We are probably going to set an October record for driest month after many September records for wettest.

Noticed Models are hinting at another possible Hurricane hitting Florida somewhere. Some guidance has a similar path as Helene bringing us bountiful Rainfall. Other's going under Ridge and moving East across tip Fla . Apparently contingent on timing and where the HP is. Could have a lot to do with dry or wet next couple weeks. As it stands, westward traversing Convection and developing TC in the Caribbean and along ITCZ in Vicinity seems to be a mechanism helping keep us in locked in HP and Dry. Of course MJO Status is also influencing things.

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15 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

If some things connect at the right time, a possibility actually. Timing per usual.

The 0z had it again.  The scenario is basically the "Sandy scenario" where a tropical system gets caught-up in a strong cold front.  For those new to our forum this year, DB and I are just kicking this around.  Really, we need rain. However, sometimes La Nina fall seasons can rapidly flip quite cold after endless summers.  The 0z GEFS ensembles is supporting the ridge moving back West for an undetermined amount of time.  I would guess it sticks out there from roughly Nov 7 to right before Christmas.

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Wow! Actually getting a bonafide storm with heavy rain and lightning right now! This little cluster of cells just kinda blew up! 
 

Edit: Actually picked up 0.64 out of that cell! It almost looks like it morphed into a small MCS. No doubt some places in Greene Co and over near Johnson City will have closer to an inch or more out of this! 
 

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Really, no consistent cold pattern is showing up yet. This is definitely starting to look like extended+++ summer.  I would think we see a pretty radical flip to cold with this with mid January through February being much AN.  If we manage to carry this warm pattern through December, all bets are off.  

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Warm weather, with some minor cooler interludes, is still on wash, rinse, repeat.  Cooler nights have kept our overall average from torching.  However, this is one of the warmest falls I can remember.  It is definitely one of the driest Octobers as we have only had 0.36" of rain.  This is a textbook La Nina fall.  

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18 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Warm weather, with some minor cooler interludes, is still on wash, rinse, repeat.  Cooler nights have kept our overall average from torching.  However, this is one of the warmest falls I can remember.  It is definitely one of the driest Octobers as we have only had 0.36" of rain.  This is a textbook La Nina fall.  

My garden is happy as I got cool season seeds in the ground late and they need some help germinating.  My wallet however is curled up in a fetal position sucking it's thumb as a result of the water bill.

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The leaves were fantastic here this year but short lived. They are mostly gone now with today's wind. If it rains much tonight, that'll finish the majority. 

Same here. From what I gather, some area's to our East are just at Peak now for whatever reason. Peak was about a Week (5-7 days)behind what the average Normal time is here. 

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48 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Interesting snippet I found out today. For first time in over 130 years Mt. Fuji does not have any snow at the top at Halloween. 

Yeah, apparently the strong -PDO , or at least the big warm SST pool out there is what's doing it. Sadly, it's downstream effect has been affecting us as well with the 500 MB Pattern as we know so well from last Winter. I don't really know what it's going to take to finally shift or dissipate that area of warm SST'S. Pacific State is really hurting us. 

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12 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, apparently the strong -PDO , or at least the big warm SST pool out there is what's doing it. Sadly, it's downstream effect has been affecting us as well with the 500 MB Pattern as we know so well from last Winter. I don't really know what it's going to take to finally shift or dissipate that area of warm SST'S. Pacific State is really hurting us. 

Crazy looking at next 2 weeks.  60/70’s highs with 40/50’s lows.  No sign on colder air.  These temps are great I do love them but in the past it was different.  The climate is changing no doubt. Floods are happening all across the globe.  I know the wx goes in cycles but this one seems different.  My grass seed is coming up beautifully.  This is definitely the perfect wx for it to grow.  Looks like my mowing season  is going well into late Nov.  At this rate I will be mowing at Christmas.  Wonder if Santa comes on a mower instead of a sleigh this year. 

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Not only is there no sign of colder air during the next couple of weeks, I don’t see much even on the 6-7 week modeling.  Caveat....LR modeling can easily miss cold air.   I was thinking that I might go AN all winter.  January still gives me trepidation.   It wouldn’t shock me to see it cold.  The longer this warm period goes...the more the anticipated December cool down potential gets pushed into January.  But a least through next week...summer still persists - this isn’t fall weather, this is summer.  Though today is a nice respite with drizzle.

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I am seeing some LR signs of changes maybe in the Atlantic.  If those changes occur, we could see substantial changes to winters after(and leading up to) 2030.  And yes, the PDO is gonna park that trough in the Mountain West as a base winter pattern.  There will be fluctuations I think, but this looks like a very warm winter coming up where Fall temps might be the norm and not actual winter temps.

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