Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think that one just formed and raced poleward. But yeah maybe a similar track. May be driving to Kingsport tomorrow AM. Could be fun. Hopefully I survive if I end up going! If u need help, give me a shout. Saw is ready to go if needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Was just reading in the main tropical thread that recon had to abort from the eye due to an extreme updraft. Apparently similar wording was used for Hugo? Of course extreme updrafts in hurricane eyes may be pretty normal too. That is wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 48 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @Holston_River_Rambleranother interesting analog might be the superstorm of ‘93. Similar origin, track, and strength. Wonder if it had a low to the west? I've actually been thinking about this one. The resulting derecho in the Gulf produced a high storm surge at Cedar Key, FL (9.5 ft). Cedar Key is also expecting some of the worst of the surge from this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 The latest update keeps this as a tropical storm well into middle TN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 Pressure down to 941, 140mph winds as of 9pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Pressure down to 941, 140mph winds as of 9pm. Man, that's not good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Per Hunter Ward on FB re: Asheville and the French Broad: NOAA is now projecting the second highest crest of the French Broad River ever recorded in the Asheville area. It is projected tomorrow morning to be at 19.4', less than 4' off the record crest of 1916. Please move to higher ground if you live near the French Broad River. See image 2 for impacts projected with a crest of 19'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 I can't remember seeing a storm rapidly strengthen and move this fast at the same time. It's moving 24mph. It's probably going to land soon. On the positive side, if there is one, areas won't have to sit under the eye wall for a huge amount of time. It's gonna move in and move on in a few hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 So similar in behavior to Michael as it approached landfall. But this is a MUCH larger storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 I’m really curious of the wind aspect for all of us. I surely hope the model projections are too high. This is just an extremely rare situation with flooding rains for 2 days, full leaves, and then the potential for 50-60+mph gusts. I wonder how the typical mountain wave locations will fair. @Math/Met ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Reports of houses floating out into ocean on Anna Marie island. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 11 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I’m really curious of the wind aspect for all of us. I surely hope the model projections are too high. This is just an extremely rare situation with flooding rains for 2 days, full leaves, and then the potential for 50-60+mph gusts. I wonder how the typical mountain wave locations will fair. @Math/Met ? He might be working tonight. @Math/Met, what ya got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 The lates 0z NAM is holding to pretty big wind gusts for TRI as does the HRRR. The NAM is far worse FWIW. For now, it is just degrees of bad. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 Finally getting on shore. 939 with 140mph winds at landfall. Had light rain for the last hour. Looks like a very heavy band is working it's way up from Knoxville right now. I've had 1.45 inches of rain since midnight. That looks heavy enough to probably put down .25 to .5 by 11:59 assuming it stays juiced. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 National Weather Service Morristown TN 956 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 943 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Key Messages: 1. Flooding risk remains overnight and into Friday morning. There is an increased risk for flash flooding near Hamilton, Marion, and Sequatchie Counties where a heavier band of rainfall is expected to train. 2. Strong 40+ mph wind gusts expected area-wide. Wind gusts over 60 mph will be possible in the Knoxville metro area and to the northeast across the Tri-Cities region and southwest Virginia. Higher elevations of the mountains and foothills may see wind gusts over 80 mph. 3. These strong winds, when combined with saturated soils, will likely result in widespread downed trees and power outages. Be prepared for prolonged power outages. Discussion: This is a historic setup for the Southern Appalachians that we haven`t seen in decades. Major Hurricane Helene will make landfall over the next couple of hours along the Big Bend region of Florida. Helene will quickly move inland and weaken, but its remnants will enter our forecast area only about 12 hours after landfall because of the quick forward speed. That means the strong pressure gradient and associated wind field will still be very intense across portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Due to the extratropical transition, the strongest winds will be on the eastern side of the track. This means the highest probability of 60+ mph wind gusts will be near the Knoxville metro and to the northeast. Even valley locations around Knoxville, Morristown, and the Tri- Cities may see wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph on Friday morning through the early afternoon. Locations near the low pressure center track that don`t see the strong 60+ mph wind gusts will likely still see wind gusts of at least 40 mph. Ridge tops will likely see the strongest wind gusts. Combine these winds with saturated soils with trees full of leaves, and widespread downed trees are expected. Widespread power outages will likely be the result with the potential for prolonged power outages. In addition to high winds, PW values are over 2.0 inches across the southern valley and southern plateau. There is a convergent region around Chattanooga that will result in heavy rain late tonight through Friday morning with a band of up to 3 to 6 inches of rain in a 6 hour period. Where this band sets up will have the potential for flash flooding on Friday morning. The flooding and river flooding risk continues area-wide with several rivers at flood stage or forecast to rise to flood stage overnight and into Friday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just got an alert for the High Wind warning again, appears they reissued it at 10:45 for the valley counties and raised the gust speed by 5 mph. Original warning said 60 Mph, new warning says 65 Mph. Strange to me to reissue for 5 Mph change in warn parameter.Edit:Scratch that the original was for 65 as well, still not really sure why they reissued the warning again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 My forecast had lost the "Tropical Storm Conditions" statement but it's back now. I also got the wind warning update. The change between the first and the 10:45 update was to raise the sustained wind max from 30 to 35mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 Heavy rain has moved back in now. Rain is in my forecast through Monday basically. Was going to be in Gray tomorrow for the Campbell County Daniel Boone game, will now be there Saturday. Looks like it might be dry over that way Saturday for the game that starts at noon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 It's absolutely drenching down out there now. Heaviest rain of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Apparently, even though we could see Helene as a tropical storm when it moves into TN, the NWS can't issue Tropical products for Tennessee according to MRX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just starting to roll in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Almost 5" in the bucket here. Really not much wind to speak of so far. It looks like the winds may come after the rain leaves later today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 It was kind of odd as it rolled in. Before we got any wind working its way down, you could hear a steady hum just above the tree tops. Winds have increased over the past thirty minutes. It is similar to a really windy day after a front comes through, but the worst is still approaching from the southeast. Winds are out of the east, gusting to 30-35mph so far. It just comes in waves. Power is blinking on and off. I will be really surprised if it stays on...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Looks like a flood advisory has been posted for Nashville and section east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just to update Jeff's post w/ the Christmas tree of lit advisories....and also to document wind gusts as much of NE TN is beginning to feel the early affects of the wind. I can hear a few transformers blowing in the distance, but so far, so good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Questions for those using Radascope:1). How accurate is the storm accumulation mode? I don’t believe the amounts it’s showing for my area2). For measuring wind, is it best to use Velocity or Storm Relative Velocity? I’m not trusting the gust near Holston Hills CC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Yes one reason they can even do hurricane recon is that the majority of the kinetic energy is horizontal. Yeah 140 mph in this case! Of course they get both vertical and horizontal turbulence. Usually even the eye wall does not have the vertical velocity of say a raging Plains supercell. Hot towers do though. And they are going to get roughed up by horizonal wind anyway. Add the vertical bumps and it's too much even for those hunters. 12 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Was just reading in the main tropical thread that recon had to abort from the eye due to an extreme updraft. Apparently similar wording was used for Hugo? Of course extreme updrafts in hurricane eyes may be pretty normal too. https://x.com/erin_kwx/status/1839453447902433339?s=46&t=KMZWtmm9xSWkLJtvZXn39g edit to add the link to that x post Getting brief wind gusts to 25 mph at my house. Mostly just vertical moderate rain. Ben raining all night. Back to something @Carvers Gap wrote about the wind above the trees, I fully expected that last night but not much in Chatty. Usually at night for me, but yeah it's a thing with fall and winter systems, and then the LLJ spring systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Was just reading in the main tropical thread that recon had to abort from the eye due to an extreme updraft. Apparently similar wording was used for Hugo? Of course extreme updrafts in hurricane eyes may be pretty normal too. https://x.com/erin_kwx/status/1839453447902433339?s=46&t=KMZWtmm9xSWkLJtvZXn39g edit to add the link to that x post Update on this - they were releasing drones and monitoring them. I saw that on the main Helene storm page, as well as on Ryan Halls broadcast last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 The National Hurricane Center has this remaining as a tropical storm as it passes into Tennessee. Looks like some areas of E TN will have the "eye" pass over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now