*Flash* Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The GFS really missed with Francine. It was too far to the east. I think the actual storm is in the Ozarks now! Social media has been torching the NWS since this graphic released earlier this morning. Not a good day to be a local met around these parts. As a math guy, I get model deviation potential but this 50 mile shift was brutal for those expecting rain who really needed it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Disappointment aside, the mid-state still has to keep her guard up later today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 The mid state rain chances are disappearing quickly. Was hoping to aerate & seed my yard but the ground is way to hard to do that. Sad & pitiful. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 13 Author Share Posted September 13 I had probably an hour total of light rain with about two 5 minute moderate showers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 .20 total here last night. Western and Northern portions of County got up to a half inch . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 14 Author Share Posted September 14 CPC and the operational models are in disagreement. They favor AN precip for 6-10/8-14 but the models have virtually no rain here at all over that time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 9 hours ago, John1122 said: CPC and the operational models are in disagreement. They favor AN precip for 6-10/8-14 but the models have virtually no rain here at all over that time frame. Yeah, it's as if CPC is running behind. I think Models had veen showing a wetter Pattern several days ago. Hopefully, that's not the case and they're onto something. If not, we're hurting around here. Drought, forest fires and damaged foliage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 On 9/13/2024 at 10:58 AM, *Flash* said: Social media has been torching the NWS since this graphic released earlier this morning. Not a good day to be a local met around these parts. As a math guy, I get model deviation potential but this 50 mile shift was brutal for those expecting rain who really needed it. The GFS total whiffed on this. Bust city. Several models were further west, and they were correct. But this thing in reality was way west of most guidance from a few days ago. Lots of schedules were changed due to this, but not sure forecasters could have done much. It is a really good example of an outlier being wrong, but didn't get tossed soon enough. It had the trend until it didn't. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 19 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: .20 total here last night. Western and Northern portions of County got up to a half inch . I think it sprinkled here! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 On 9/13/2024 at 7:28 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: It's been pretty sad watching the precip chances slowly ebb for plateau areas as Francine has moved toward us. Had a 20 second decent shower and that's about it. Some Hires models showing some storm chances this PM. MRX also notes the non 0 tornado risk in southern plateau and valley areas. And man, good to have you posting again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 I see that we have more reactions to choose from. I think we need to really have a "97" reaction, because my high school drafting teacher would only give us a 97. She said that great drafting was never really perfect - awesome teacher by the way. We also have an "x" and a "crap" reaction. I predict that we see a lot of those during Jan and Feb, definitely March. Or if someone goes full Boomer Sooner on us next weekend....we could get some early use of those. So if you need to test some of those out, this is the post to use. LOL! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 I 'escaped' Francine with just a hair over 2". Just 10-15 miles down 70, you were hard-pressed to find anything over .75". The sharp gradient on the east side was definitely a middle finger to 65 locales. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Reasons why I have not been on much recently.. They got the hole over East Brainerd, east of downtown Chattanooga. The totally whacked thing is that it's probably right! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 The Hi-Res are spreading around .3 my way, some more, some less. I'm hoping for that. Fall color is showing up here, some yellows and reds are beginning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 On 9/15/2024 at 11:56 AM, Carvers Gap said: I see that we have more reactions to choose from. I think we need to really have a "97" reaction, because my high school drafting teacher would only give us a 97. She said that great drafting was never really perfect - awesome teacher by the way. We also have an "x" and a "crap" reaction. I predict that we see a lot of those during Jan and Feb, definitely March. Or if someone goes full Boomer Sooner on us next weekend....we could get some early use of those. So if you need to test some of those out, this is the post to use. LOL! Well the ole crapper works! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 6 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Reasons why I have not been on much recently.. They got the hole over East Brainerd, east of downtown Chattanooga. The totally whacked thing is that it's probably right! It’s definitely right! Mid state can’t buy a soaking rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 Woo hoo, actual rainfall on the plateau this AM! Hope everyone who has a chance can get a shower! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 On 9/15/2024 at 11:56 AM, Carvers Gap said: I see that we have more reactions to choose from. I think we need to really have a "97" reaction, because my high school drafting teacher would only give us a 97. She said that great drafting was never really perfect - awesome teacher by the way. We also have an "x" and a "crap" reaction. I predict that we see a lot of those during Jan and Feb, definitely March. Or if someone goes full Boomer Sooner on us next weekend....we could get some early use of those. So if you need to test some of those out, this is the post to use. LOL! I'm setting the over/under 1.5 crap emojis vs. 1.0 weenie emojis as the primary ratio during the November 15-March 15 time period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 It has been awesome today. Light rain, drizzle, and a breeze. The leaves, as John noted, are starting change. We still have some heat to navigate, but today has been a nice touch of fall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 Some nice cold fronts are starting to show up on the control runs of ensembles in the LR. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 18 Author Share Posted September 18 Looks like, fingers double crossed, that fall arrives in earnest around Oct 1st. Widespread frost and maybe even some rain around the area between now and then. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 I do want to clarify one thing. My high school drafting teacher was the best teacher I had in high school. It was my favorite class. She was a tough grader, but that kind of made it fun. Had to work for a good grade. Anyway, let's get some fall arriving soon, @John1122. Bring it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 On 9/19/2024 at 2:58 PM, Carvers Gap said: I do want to clarify one thing. My high school drafting teacher was the best teacher I had in high school. It was my favorite class. She was a tough grader, but that kind of made it fun. Had to work for a good grade. Anyway, let's get some fall arriving soon, @John1122. Bring it! Sure doesn't look like fall is in the 7-10 Day Outlook for west/middle TN... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Nice touch, NWS-Memphis. Way to take advantage of the opportunity… 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 11 hours ago, *Flash* said: Sure doesn't look like fall is in the 7-10 Day Outlook for west/middle TN... Yeah, as SOON as I talk about it, it goes away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 17 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Nice touch, NWS-Memphis. Way to take advantage of the opportunity… Probably a big ol' tropical system right under that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 On 9/21/2024 at 8:43 PM, Carvers Gap said: Probably a big ol' tropical system right under that. Yep. It doesn't look like west TN is under the gun right now. Seems like the Euro Ensemble mean is moving the next tropical disturbance eastward though that could change by this time tomorrow. Whatever the case, it shouldn't have any issue moving north by north____ with that ridge displaced over the eastern midwest/Great Lakes as part of that pre-existing Omega block pattern. Granted, I note that potential low moving into those regions next week which could affect UL steering winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 6 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Yep. It doesn't look like west TN is under the gun right now. Seems like the Euro Ensemble mean is moving the next tropical disturbance this eastward. Whatever develops shouldn't have any issue moving north by north____ with that ridge displaced over the eastern midwest/Great Lakes. Interesting Omega block pattern for sure. It does look like the summer surface pattern is about to break down bigly. The tropics look active as we are pretty close to that double dip(two tropical maximums) common during La Nina. I would bet that when the last of the tropical systems scoot out(mid-late October), I bet it turns pretty cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Seeing 70’s as highs starting Tuesday & onward is wonderful news. Now if we can throw in some much needed rain so I can seed my yard would be perfect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Going to have to start focusing on the tropics for the TN Valley. Multiple OPs and the ensembles are starting to converge on our region regardless of the exact landfall point and timing in the eastern GOM. Intensity would matter somewhat, but even a weaker system would bring heavy rain potential to the eastern Valley with mid-to-upper level interaction over the Ridge and Valley and Blue Ridge provinces. ETA sometime this weekend through early next week.Edit: If you will notice the ensemble mean tracks of the TC's surface low. However, the mid-level circulation and flow of the heaviest precipitation shield will likely move NE over the southern and central Appalachians while the remnant surface circulation bends back NW and even west. With the ULL setup and block, the entire region may get a good drenching. Hopefully, this will be a beneficial event without severe flooding, but I am getting concerned for eastern areas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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