Summer-Fall 2024 Weather Disco Med/Long Range

[Carvers Gap]

I "think" (and credit to Jeff for the original idea) this pattern at least relaxes in 10-11 days.  That has been moving forward on modeling consistently.  There is at least some evidence in modeling that this could be a legitimate pattern change.   If I had a nickel for every time I have said that(and been wrong), I would be a wealthy man.  I do think endless summer(meaning summer persists well into Sept and Oct) is likely just based on analogs.  That said, right now there is not a lot of LR model support for that.  I think seasonal(which is still hot) to slightly AN looks like how we might finish out summer.  I really don't think fall will arrive on time due to La Nina, but the CANSIPS run for July 1 thinks maybe so.  I am not ready to say the worst of summer will be behind us (once we reach July 20), but that is on the table.  Until then, heat and drought are gonna be a mainstay over much of E TN.

[Carvers Gap]

Part of the reason we are getting the coast to coast air fryer this summer is two fold:

1.  La Nina has taken hold and it has gotten dry in easter NA which often correlates with hot temps.

2.  Several areas in the West(northwest and mountain west) didn't get enough water last winter due to El Nino, and their snow pack has gone poof in some of those areas.  That allows the heat to build.  Their f!re season (which I hate even discussing on a public forum) has started early.  

We were in Oregon a couple of weeks ago.  We saw Darlene 3 grow from ~2.5 acres to ~2500 acres in 24 hours.  I have seen plenty of those seasons out West.  That is probably the quickest I have seen one get going that quickly.  The state of Oregon had 400 people, several dozers, and tankers on it within 24 hours.  They had it under control in about 3-4 days....just beyond impressive.  

[Carvers Gap]

TRI appears to be the hottest reporting station in E TN right now.  Temp is already 92 w/ a heat index of 101.

[John1122]

Had about 3 minutes of heavy rain then it went away and the sun came back out. The 6-10 and 8-14 say AN precip, but it's not the first time it has and it didn't happen. 

[1234snow]

KTRI tied the record at 96 today which beat Knoxville and Chattanooga by 1.

[Windspeed]

Latest ECMWF rainfall anomaly for ASO from Ben Noll's site. Interior CONUS is dry except for portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and very suggestive of cool neutral ENSO / La Niña pattern. Note the very active Atlantic and long-track setup for TCs. Potential drought conditons during the period for the Tennessee Valley without much progressive frontal precipitation. Hopefully, some weaker systems will bend around the ridge a curb drought conditions. Unfortunately, some of those systems will likely be hurricane strikes for the SE CONUS.

[John1122]

It's crazy warm tonight with the hurricane remnants bringing all the tropical air north. It's 1:30 am and 77 degrees and I'm one of the cool spots. It's still 82 at Tri-Cities, 81 at Knoxville, Nooga, Middleboro,  and 80 at Morristown. 

[Carvers Gap]

Today feels 100% better.  I won't last, but lower humidity and cooler temps is a nice respite.  

And yes, the new Euro seasonals are a big time crapfest of heat and dry weather.  I lean CANSIPS, but the Euro seasonals are a worst case scenario.  

[Carvers Gap]

16 hours ago, 1234snow said:

KTRI tied the record at 96 today which beat Knoxville and Chattanooga by 1.

What is crazy is that I "think" the airport got a little bit of rain which capped the temps late yesterday afternoon.  Man, it was crazy hot in Kingsport yesterday.  Everything is just fried today, because of it.  I don't like tropical systems which just graze us w/ no rain.  That sinking air makes is so much worse. 

[Carvers Gap]

I thought we might be in some rarefied air in portions of E TN....there is 1988 in the mix.  I wasn't in the US for the summer of 1993.  It seems like the MS flooded then.  I was watching from 7 time zones away.  Interesting to see Minnesota with flooding now.  

 

[1234snow]

What is crazy is that I "think" the airport got a little bit of rain which capped the temps late yesterday afternoon.  Man, it was crazy hot in Kingsport yesterday.  Everything is just fried today, because of it.  I don't like tropical systems which just graze us w/ no rain.  That sinking air makes is so much worse. 

You certainly called that scenario happening. It was the highest heat index since 1996 I believe Dave Dierks said last night.

[Carvers Gap]

Man, on social media this morning MRX paints a bleak picture for next week...expansion of drought and heat.  We need this pattern to break after the 20th.  Next week is gonna leave a serious mark.  We potentially could be seeing a historic event next week in terms of heat.

[Carvers Gap]

MRX.... In the upper levels, the trough over the Midwest and Ohio Valley
will weaken late Friday. A broad trough will remain over the Great
Lakes and Northeast through the weekend as a ridge out west moves
into the Great Plains by Monday. A weak ridge (an extension of the
Bermuda-Azores High) will be over the Southeast. At the surface, a
weak pressure gradient is in place.

Temps will rebound Friday and Saturday. Hot weather is expected this
weekend with highs in the 90s. Early next week highs may approach
records. The good news is that humidity will be fairly low with dew
points in the 60s expected to continue through at least this weekend
due to westerly surface winds and mostly sunny skies allowing for
good mixing conditions. Early next week highs will approach 100
degrees in the Southern and Central Tennessee Valleys. Heat indices
may be close to advisory criteria (105) by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Unfortunately, rain chances are very low for most locations with the
best chances in the East Tennessee Mountains and SW North Carolina
due to intense surface heating of south facing slopes. By Tuesday or
Wednesday, low rain chances may return to the Valley if a system is
able to make it this far south.

 

[Carvers Gap]

16 hours ago, 1234snow said:

You certainly called that scenario happening. It was the highest heat index since 1996 I believe Dave Dierks said last night.

Yeah, we are messing around with some hot analogs!!!!!!  Rough stretch coming up.  

[Carvers Gap]

 

[John1122]

Getting some July 1995 vibes now. It was a La Nina that transitioned from a moderate El Nino. The heat cranked up on July 10th that year and stayed pedal to the floor into August.  

The rainiest day of the month was .09 in Knoxville and the monthly rain total was only .33 inches. Knoxville had 14 days of 95+ in July and 13 more in August. August 12th-19th went 96, 98, 98, 99, 100, 99, 98, 98. August was a bit wetter with 2 inches. 

Summer finally broke down in September and we actually had a cold fall and very cold winter. 

This year the heat and dry weather started a bit earlier and hasn't been quite as severe as 1995 yet.  Hopefully it doesn't last a solid 8 weeks like it did in the summer of 1995. 

 

 

[dwagner88]

When I was growing up March was always the wettest month of the year here. It was the only one where we averaged more than 6" of precip. I think when the climate averages were recalculated in 2010, it shifted to July being the wettest month. If you have a severe drought in what should be the wettest time of the year, it's very hard to not have that drought linger for months and months afterwards. Tropical systems may be our only shot at avoiding a 2016-esque fall.

[Carvers Gap]

Nice little break still on modeling (ensembles and ext ensembles) sometime around or just after the 20th(edit).  I don't trust the extended length of seasonal to BN temps being shown....but will gladly take it.  Seasonal is still warm during August, so please remember that....just not wall-to-wall furnace.

[Carvers Gap]

Just a few more days of this, and then I think we get a much needed break from excessive heat and maybe the beginning of a slow climb out of drought conditions.  The 12z GFS is our ticket out of this.  

[jaxjagman]

This winter is looking like more and more 2015-2016 if you resemble the ENSO.It wasnt exactly boring for us in MId TN back then,we had severe and a couple winter storms in Jan,Dec was exceptionally warm tho.The whole winter was AN for temps,but its NINA,so that shouldnt be a surprise.Be nice to at least get some snow,but nothing is giving in Tn,unless you are in the mountains

[Carvers Gap]

6 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

This winter is looking like more and more 2015-2016 if you resemble the ENSO.It wasnt exactly boring for us in MId TN back then,we had severe and a couple winter storms in Jan,Dec was exceptionally warm tho.The whole winter was AN for temps,but its NINA,so that shouldnt be a surprise.Be nice to at least get some snow,but nothing is giving in Tn,unless you are in the mountains

Good post.

[Carvers Gap]

97F at TRI today.  Maybe 3-4 more days of this, and then a welcome, welcome break.

[dwagner88]

I'll be honest, it was 101 Satuday and 100 yesterday officially, but it really didn't feel that bad. Humidity was quite low. Last July's 97 air 81 dew was WAY worse.

[John1122]

Had a 30 minute thunderstorm around 1pm today. Capped the heating and only made 88. Glad for any moisture in the leaf bed before fall. Hopefully the rain the rest of the week comes to fruition.  

[Carvers Gap]

Been a long of run of crazy hot temps.  Looks like a decent little break incoming.  @nrgjeffcalled this one from waaaay out.  

[*Flash*]

On 7/13/2024 at 4:15 PM, jaxjagman said:

This winter is looking like more and more 2015-2016 if you resemble the ENSO.It wasnt exactly boring for us in MId TN back then,we had severe and a couple winter storms in Jan,Dec was exceptionally warm tho.The whole winter was AN for temps,but its NINA,so that shouldnt be a surprise.Be nice to at least get some snow,but nothing is giving in Tn,unless you are in the mountains

That December was brutal statewide but Jonas made up for it (at least locally) the next month when our two-week window finally opened. I remember doing some digging on this winter 8 years ago. BNA had the 27th snowiest winter during the 9th warmest winter in recorded history. Speaks to the fact that it only takes one hit to make a winter. Last year was reminiscent to this in several ways. 

Also, let's hope the mild early winter potential doesn't produce another severe weather episode. Forget the anomalies, that's my greatest concern. 

[John1122]

Pulled off two different storms today. The last one around 5:20-5:50 produced minor street flooding. It felt miserable between them but the air temperature wasn't too bad. 

[Carvers Gap]

Not a drop here.  TRI struggles to break droughts.  We are in a rain shadow anyway.  I can see the lines of rain hit the dry air and poof.  I do think that problem will slowly erode this week and allow some rain in.  BUT, we had better get rain in the next two weeks.  Even though temps are expected to moderate in the near to longer term...rain chances drop on modeling as we head into fall.

John, send some of that rain over here!  Congrats on the score.

[Carvers Gap]

32 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

That December was brutal statewide but Jonas made up for it (at least locally) the next month when our two-week window finally opened. I remember doing some digging on this winter 8 years ago. BNA had the 27th snowiest winter during the 9th warmest winter in recorded history. Speaks to the fact that it only takes one hit to make a winter. Last year was reminiscent to this in several ways. 

Also, let's hope the mild early winter potential doesn't produce another severe weather episode. Forget the anomalies, that's my greatest concern. 

I have refrained from a winter outlook this summer.  Normally, I am pretty confident by this time(about the upcoming winter).  Right now, I would say AN temps and BN precip.  BUT....something is really nagging me about this set-up.  Most LR modeling is very warm.  It is either wall-to-wall for Jan-Feb warm w/ Dec normal.  That is probably my guess.  Nov-Dec (cold) w/ Jan to Feb well above normal.  Last winter didn't behave.  Additionally, I am not overly confident in the IO right now.  It seems to drive our weather us much as the PDO.  I might have to do some digging.  We are due in E TN for some cold winters.  John notes that winters tend to group together - meaning a stretch of bad winters or a stretch of cold winters.  The EC is beyond overdo for Nor'Easters.  Storm track this winter "should" favor the Plateau westward.  That I feel pretty good about.  

[Carvers Gap]

La Nina winters tend to have a very bad cold shot prior to mid-winter - as in withering.  It is very difficult to know where that eastern boundary is going to set up.  I have seen some crazy cold shots during Nina winters.  We want the Nina to be weak.  The QBO just flipped positive, so we are gonna be dealing with that this winter.  It will be interesting to see if we have less Atlantic blocking.  TBH, I am not sure we want Atlantic blocking if it is going to hook into an eastern ridge.  We need that PDO to flip and get and EPO ridge out there.  This does look like a winter where the default trough is going to tuck into the Mountain West.  I just sense come variability this winter that might cause some problems in forecasting...Yeah, that sounds like trying to sense the force, and that is not a good forecasting strategy.