John1122 Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 The boring season continues here but the first two weeks of Met summer look favorable as far as us not roasting goes. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook favors BN temps and near to bn precip. The first two days of met summer have produced low 70s yesterday and only mid-60s at 1pm here with rainfall both days. The countdown is on until the first true cold front of fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 20 hours ago, John1122 said: The boring season continues here but the first two weeks of Met summer look favorable as far as us not roasting goes. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook favors BN temps and near to bn precip. The first two days of met summer have produced low 70s yesterday and only mid-60s at 1pm here with rainfall both days. The countdown is on until the first true cold front of fall. Let’s hope a cooler & wetter summer prevails. Hopefully October does not torch. I feel the wx is unpredictable these days. I don’t expect much of a winter as in snow. I am afraid severe wx is going to be the common theme instead. Hope I’m eating a lot of crow about winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 Wake me up when September comes.. Green Day is timeless. This thread should probably be pinned. Drop the pin on the Spring thread and put it out of its misery, ha. Still looks like we can avoid major heat for a good chunk of June. The more weeks we chop off the less miserable summer overall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 3 Author Share Posted June 3 Wasn't expecting rain today but have a legit downpour working through over the last 10 minutes. No thunder though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 Tis the season for high-resolution models to be clueless. Today the rain was supposed to be MS/AL. It's Tenn. Love it! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 42 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Tis the season for high-resolution models to be clueless. Today the rain was supposed to be MS/AL. It's Tenn. Love it! Yeah some impressive storms from Nashville west. Really the models short range have been hit and miss this season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 4 hours ago, John1122 said: Wasn't expecting rain today but have a legit downpour working through over the last 10 minutes. No thunder though. Yeah, saw that on Radar earlier and was thinking that's in John's land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 10 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Wake me up when September comes.. Green Day is timeless. This thread should probably be pinned. Drop the pin on the Spring thread and put it out of its misery, ha. Still looks like we can avoid major heat for a good chunk of June. The more weeks we chop off the less miserable summer overall. I’m keeping my axe sharp lol! Cool & rain every few days is fabulous! My yard says THANK YOU! My lawnmower says ugh! Love the GREEN! Much better than brown! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 Heavy rain again this evening. First four days of June have featured rain and cooler than normal temps. It was sticky out there today but sticky and 78 is a lot better than sticky and 93. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Nice downpour here this afternoon after missing multiple chances during the past couple of days. We have done ok w/ rain during the past month after a concerning start around parts of TRI. We don't have the big totals to our west, but it'll do for now. Looks like on-and-off rain chances for the next 7-10 days. Overall, it has been good "garden weather." That means not too much rain and cool(not cold) overnight temps along w/ warm days. I have found that slightly dry water amounts is 10x better than too rainy. This year I am working on watering less and getting plants to extend their roots downward more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 Had an epic downpour this morning. Another moderate shower this afternoon. Still an 80 percent chance tonight. Zero thunder with these showers the last few days. Yesterday we had a big gust front with strong winds but no thunder. I'm on the too rainy side of things and my tomato plants are feeling the stress of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 9 Author Share Posted June 9 The rain today is once again free of thunder in my area but it absolutely poured down those huge drops, caused minor street flooding. Looks like we get hot late week and next weekend. Was hoping we'd make it through June without feeling it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Been a nice early June. Dewpoints are quite lovely today. Feels very comfortable outside. Unfortunately the gig is up starting about this weekend. Temps will bounce Thursday and Friday, but the humididy might lag a day. This weekend one needs to be near water. By late June looks like a true heat ridge will be sloshing around the US. Oh goodie! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 We may pay the piper soon, but today is another June day where my A/C didn't need to run. That's three in a row. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 Also, the GFS is all over the place on temps, mainly due to rain. But the western 2/3rds of the forum area have a lot or BN periods depicted over the next two weeks. The cpc extended maps are deep reds. The GFS has lots of blues and even purples and pinks over the South and Southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Also, the GFS is all over the place on temps, mainly due to rain. But the western 2/3rds of the forum area have a lot or BN periods depicted over the next two weeks. The cpc extended maps are deep reds. The GFS has lots of blues and even purples and pinks over the South and Southeast. I will take rain every 2-3 days to keep the temps at bay. I’d love for a wetter than normal summer. Yes would make it humid but better than oppressive heat & dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 From Ben Noll's site. Long range ECMWF-UKMET superblend indicative of La Niña and AMO+ pattern taking hold by ASO. If this unfolds, expect a dry late summer pattern into autumn. Caveat being any landfalling tropical systems moving inland over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley regions to break potential dry conditions. We're still in a period of transitional ENSO until that time, however. We should still experience periods of frontal boundary precip through June into mid-July, with hot and humid days intermingled by August. How hot and humid remains the question, though. Muggy August and September humidity can still lead to isolated evening thunderstorms, so here's to hoping we avoid any outright drought conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Well, it would appear that summer is about to get hot about during the timeframe when summer normally gets hot. I concur w/ extended summer outlooks going well into September and even early October. BUT, I am just a bit wary(more so than normal) of LR ext modeling right now. Nina "should" be hot and dry....sometimes really hot and dry IMBY. As John noted, some Nina summers are actually AN for precip. The Apps should be drier than normal through winter. BUT, I am losing confidence that modeling has this nailed down. Too much jumping around on operationals....really all over the place. I suspect the eventual net result will be AN temps for an extended period of time, BUT less than confident right now. This pattern almost feels like it will flip as soon as we go "all in" on hot weather. TX and Plains' heat ridge combo usually means we get very hot here. We'll see.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 13 Author Share Posted June 13 After an open windows night last night, with a low of 52, the house cooled way down into the mid 60s. So got by again today with no ac. The humidity got up a little today and the high was 78. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 No surprise that the GFS/GEFS at 12z want no part of the death ridge. It is Americans vs Euro/Canadians. Isn't it always? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Winter storm watches are posted for Montana. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Winter storm watches are posted for Montana. It's literally in the 70s out there and then by Monday a foot plus over 6k feet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Rocky Mountain and Northern High Plains things. I'll confess I'm jealous. Feel free to react 16 hours ago, Met1985 said: It's literally in the 70s out there and then by Monday a foot plus over 6k feet.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 3 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Rocky Mountain and Northern High Plains things. I'll confess I'm jealous. Feel free to react I'm right there with you! Would love to have a home out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 On 6/13/2024 at 10:01 PM, Met1985 said: It's literally in the 70s out there and then by Monday a foot plus over 6k feet.... My family & I head to the Grand Tetons(staying in Jackson Hole) & Yellowstone (staying in west Yellowstone) July 6-13th. My in-laws are out there now. Snow still on ground in higher elevations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 16 Author Share Posted June 16 Surprised the terrain isn't generating thunderstorms here so far today. The Eastern mountains, the Highland Rim and Southern Plateau seem to be. Especially since the dp is 72. That's usually an almost automatic thunderstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Sunday we specialized in orphaned anvils around here. Finally got a shower Sunday evening. Coming on midweek we just have too much ridge in the Valley. Farther west the Mid-South has a little moisture fetch coming around the west side of the ridge. Might take until the middle of next week to break the ridge. Looks like it'll come from the soft underbelly. Front, what's that? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Hopefully we get a few showers soon. I was just missed on both sides a few days ago. The heatwave itself isn't too bad here. I've not hit 90 yet. It only got up to 85 yesterday and it 85 right now. It is humid though but not the low 70s dps I had a few days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Yes so far temps are under achieving the hype. Core ridge is north, so I guess it's their problem. Lack of rain is verifying though. I have a feeling Sunday front attempt will be dry; first attempt often is dry. Then by midweek maybe the second try. Looks like front vs soft underbelly. Probably same result this time of year, more humid. Front would have pooling moisture. Yard could use the drink though. By next week yards will be very thirsty. Then we have hints at a hot 4th of July week. Weeklies are a little more reliable week 3 in mid-summer vs spring and fall. Guess from there we grind it out until football starts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 22 Author Share Posted June 22 Clouded up today and we only made 85 again. The Northeast can keep the heat and I'll keep hoping for some Sunday evening or night rain, and hope the second shot delivers too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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