Albedoman Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro and CMC both take Debby remnant center right over Cape May. Plenty of tropical rains for parts of the area. Unless your 'the drought guy'. Laugh now Ralph, but watch the storm take a wide right and leave us all wondering what the hell happened. I will not believe the models precip runs again until my rain gauge registers two inches of precip and the precip is actually called for. These precip models have been poor in their guidance all summer. Hit and miss t storms will not make the cut. Even Mt Holly has had trouble with posting 60-80 % chances of precip and then changing their forecasts two- four hours later and lowering the aerial coverage to 20%. I have been using my leaf blower after every t storm because of the amount of scorched leaves from the trees being blown off from the gusty winds with little to no rainfall. It appears MT Holly is already downgrading the precip totals between forecast periods this morning too going from 1-2 inches to less than an inch in the last four hours. Enjoy your tropical rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Picked up 0.43" of rain for the day yesterday. Three day total of 2.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Sunny and warm today but a bit less humid. Rain chances increase by tomorrow night with a cold front approach. A flood watch in effect for tomorrow night and then rain chances continue for most of the week with the remnants of Debby moving up the coast late week. Chester County records for today: High 102 degrees at Kennett Square (1918) / Low 44 degrees at Phoenixville (1951) / Rain 2.43" at Phoenixville (1923) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 After a low of of 73 this morning, am currently mostly sunny and 89 with dp 71. 7 hours ago, Albedoman said: Laugh now Ralph, but watch the storm take a wide right and leave us all wondering what the hell happened. I will not believe the models precip runs again until my rain gauge registers two inches of precip and the precip is actually called for. These precip models have been poor in their guidance all summer. Hit and miss t storms will not make the cut. Even Mt Holly has had trouble with posting 60-80 % chances of precip and then changing their forecasts two- four hours later and lowering the aerial coverage to 20%. I have been using my leaf blower after every t storm because of the amount of scorched leaves from the trees being blown off from the gusty winds with little to no rainfall. It appears MT Holly is already downgrading the precip totals between forecast periods this morning too going from 1-2 inches to less than an inch in the last four hours. Enjoy your tropical rains. You're almost in the cone! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Current temp 92/DP 67/RH 45% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Rainy week ahead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 This is the one week of the year I needed it to be dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 2 hours ago, RedSky said: This is the one week of the year I needed it to be dry. C,mon man, my location in the bullseye for Saturday? These models are garbage. Lets see how many times this changes in the next five days. 11 in of rain. If this scenario actually happens, it will be the worst foods ever to hit Lehigh Valley. Isaias was bad enough in 2020 with 8 in of rain in 24 hours. here was my front yard in the pic below in 2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 20 minutes ago, Albedoman said: C,mon man, my location in the bullseye for Saturday? These models are garbage. Lets see how many times this changes in the next five days. 11 in of rain. If this scenario actually happens, it will be the worst foods ever to hit Lehigh Valley. Isaias was bad enough in 2020 with 8 in of rain in 24 hours. here was my front yard in the pic below in 2020. Damn brutal, but the firepits still good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 2 hours ago, Albedoman said: C,mon man, my location in the bullseye for Saturday? These models are garbage. Lets see how many times this changes in the next five days. 11 in of rain. If this scenario actually happens, it will be the worst foods ever to hit Lehigh Valley. Isaias was bad enough in 2020 with 8 in of rain in 24 hours. here was my front yard in the pic below in 2020. Get ready! As an obs, I made it up to 92 as a high and it's currently 88 and partly cloudy with dp 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 6 hours ago, Albedoman said: C,mon man, my location in the bullseye for Saturday? These models are garbage. Lets see how many times this changes in the next five days. 11 in of rain. If this scenario actually happens, it will be the worst foods ever to hit Lehigh Valley. Isaias was bad enough in 2020 with 8 in of rain in 24 hours. here was my front yard in the pic below in 2020. Probably won’t be as bad as Isaias or Ida but flood prone areas are gonna get hit pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Any sun this morning should fade as the cold front approaches this PM. Rain should start by late afternoon toward early evening. Heaviest rain overnight with up to a couple inches possible in spots. The impacts of TS Debby will keep us wet for much of the rest of the work week. Chester County records for today: High 104 degrees at Sadsburyville (1918) / Record low 44 degrees at Phoenixville (1957) / Rain 2.19" at Longwood Gardens (2020) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 SPC has a slight risk in place for most of us today. Short range models show a pretty intense line passing through sometime between 7-11 pm. Could be a fun evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Forecast reads like a lost summer afternoon with showers and thunderstorms likely but the models don't have that rolling in until after 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Enhanced risk now north of the turnpike and west of 476. Looks like the primary threat is wind. You can already see this evening’s action starting to take shape in western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Jesus crackers trying to make my plans this week is like trying to navigate a heavily poplulated mine field. Will I have a mostly dry day today until 7pm? Can't figure it out after going through guidance. Will tomorrow afternoon shower? No clue. How about Thursday? Ummm 50/50 but really no clue. Friday looks like a 99.9% chance of a total washout. How about Saturday? GFS says your drenched, but everything else says you clear out late morning and a good day. Most of the chaos is caused by this damn slowing front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Current temp 92/DP DP 75/RH 58% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: SPC has a slight risk in place for most of us today. Short range models show a pretty intense line passing through sometime between 7-11 pm. Could be a fun evening. I expect some nice winds ahead/with the front along w/lightning/thunder/downpours. Not severe but it will be active. I see no way all of us get screwed. Maybe some but that goes w/o saying w/any system... 92F/DP 74F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Jesus crackers trying to make my plans this week is like trying to navigate a heavily poplulated mine field. Will I have a mostly dry day today until 7pm? Can't figure it out after going through guidance. Will tomorrow afternoon shower? No clue. How about Thursday? Ummm 50/50 but really no clue. Friday looks like a 99.9% chance of a total washout. How about Saturday? GFS says your drenched, but everything else says you clear out late morning and a good day. Most of the chaos is caused by this damn slowing front. Here's the front so it's a judgement call if it arrives before 7pm. Also some popups could occur before the front. My guess is some rain before 7pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Here's the front so it's a judgement call if it arrives before 7pm. Also some popups could occur before the front. My guess is some rain before 7pm... It's all a guess the Hrrr and NAM runs have mostly been showing dry until 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Had a low of 77 this morning and it's currently 91 with dp 78, so something is definitely bound to pop up later this afternoon with that combo (particularly with the front). WPC has it juicy here... Once Debby drifts back out into the Hotlantic, it will refuel and just tear up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 GFS vs ECM,CMC,ICON and the kichen sink the Debby slop washes out Saturday although the GFS thinks it gets out around noon now so it's leaning toward other guidance for the first time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's all a guess the Hrrr and NAM runs have mostly been showing dry until 7pm Already seeing popups forming ahead of it. Sunny here to fuel things more... 92F/DP 75F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Already seeing popups forming ahead of it. Sunny here to fuel things more... 92F/DP 75F NAM and Hrrr are going to blow it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 ST Watches are up - Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 070300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0606.240806T1750Z-240807T0300Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER DELAWARE LACKAWANNA LEHIGH LUZERNE MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA PIKE WAYNE WYOMING $$ Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-070300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0606.240806T1750Z-240807T0300Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN $$ Current temp here is 93 with dp 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 RGEM nailed the current early popups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 They're really popping up in bunches. Still sunny here 93F/DP 76F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: RGEM nailed the current early popups There's a bunch forming now including one that may be zooming north of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 92 and 80 dp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Heard family member is watering their extensive vegetation now because they say it isn't going to rain Major flood potential just sky rocketed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now