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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2024 Obs/Discussion


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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Hot&dry is on the menu. To quote the immortal Cheryl Lemke "Your just gonna bake"

Maybe some Friday afternoon boomers?

Next week looks like complete hell. I thought Adam Joseph was going to put his hands in the air, jump and click his heals when he showed the extended forecast...

69F/DP 56F

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Temps in some spots like Warwick and Nottingham Townships touched the chilly 40's this morning. Today will be our 5th straight below normal....but last such day for a while. We begin a solid warming trend this PM although with the exception of some valley spots in the county any 90+ degree readings may have to wait till early next week. The next chance of showers looks like Friday late PM.
Chester County records for today: High 97 degrees at Phoenixville (1956) / Record low 34 degrees also at Phoenixville (1972) / Rain 4.35" at Devault (1968)
image.png.934b1c85672820788f696d9d9b50b9c5.png
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lets hope we get a million dollar downpour on Thursday night into Friday for the corn and other crops , otherwise it looks pretty damn dry for the rest of June.  Withoot the rain  in the next few days, the lawns will turn yellow brown quite easily, especially with mid 90's being predicted.  The lawns are really thick but barely wet enough to stay green.  The stream flows are average , so I am not concerned with the stream levels so far.  Not a drought conditions but another 20 days of below avg rainfall will start to get us there. July is the wettest month but it is not uniform precip coverage for our area. Soem will be crying for rain while other flood.

My next thoughts is that way too much precip is falling in middle and southern Fla right now. The dying cold fronts and or low pressure troughs from the mid west hitting  Florida  have a great environment  for tropiocal wave formation and to ride up the east coast right now. If I was a betting man, early July looks to be active with  the tropical production in the Gulf of Mxico/Florida coast area.

 

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El Nino is officially dead.  La Nina watch (65% chance for it this summer)!

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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
 
13 June 2024
 

ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

 

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January).

ENSO-neutral conditions returned during the past month. Near-to-below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expanded across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The most recent weekly Niño-3.4 index was +0.1°C, while SST anomalies remained cooler in the far eastern Niño-1+2 region (-0.5°C) and warmer in the western Niño-4 region (+0.8°C; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface temperatures were mostly unchanged during the past month (area-averaged index in [Fig. 3]), with negative anomalies persisting in the eastern half of the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level winds were near average. Convection was mostly average around Indonesia, while below-average rainfall strengthened near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.

The most recent IRI plume indicates La Niña may develop during July-September 2024 and then persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 6]. The forecast team is also favoring the development of La Niña during July-September because the rate of cooling has slowed since last month. The team still favors La Niña to emerge sometime during the summer months, given the persistent below-average subsurface ocean temperatures and changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 July 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

After a 60 low, have so far hit 87 for a high today.  And since we are dry (I have only had 0.60" of rain in June so far), that can help temps soar next week if we don't get a bit of a soaking ahead of the incoming heatwave.

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High Temps ranged from the low to mid 80's yesterday across the County. Today we should see temps well into the 80's today before a cold front passes later in the day which will cool us back to near normal over the weekend. Temps begin to warm and some solid heat sets in with widespread 90's likely starting on Tuesday.
Chester County records for today: High 99 degrees at Phoenixville (1943) / Low 41 degrees at West Chester (1985) / Rain 1.91" also in West Chester (1917)
image.png.e22c9ac635917a36f2794045eaa14b9c.png
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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Mt. Holly’s AFD, you love to see it. Starting Friday beautifully with afternoon storms likely, followed by a perfect summer weekend, unless you're cloudy cool mcbirds. Early June may win most enjoyable weather award. Just hope the storms pan out.

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30 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Mt. Holly’s AFD, you love to see it. Starting Friday beautifully with afternoon storms likely, followed by a perfect summer weekend, unless you're cloudy cool mcbirds. Early June may win most enjoyable weather award. Just hope the storms pan out.

Mike calling out Birds (probably me as well)! :lol:

Short range mesos don't look overly impressed with storms this evening, but mother nature is gonna do what's she's gonna do.

77F/DP 70F

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Here we go!

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC017-029-045-091-101-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0415.240614T2055Z-240615T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUCKS                CHESTER             DELAWARE
MONTGOMERY           PHILADELPHIA
$$


ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

 

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC017-029-045-091-101-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0415.240614T2055Z-240615T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUCKS                CHESTER             DELAWARE
MONTGOMERY           PHILADELPHIA
$$


ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

Currently overcast IMBY and 86 with dp 69.

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I think Mt.  Holly said it was a pre-frontal trough.  Right now the radar has all kinds of junk and stuff bubbling up. :lol:

Hope you get your power back quick though! :yikes:

Power in reality never goes out here the genny kicks on automatic

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Now have 0.33" in the bucket with rates 1.5"/hr.  Temp down to 72 with dp 69.

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC045-091-101-142200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0027.240614T2117Z-240614T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
517 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 516 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bryn Mawr, or
  8 miles west of Philadelphia, moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is
           possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Philadelphia, Conshohocken, Narberth, Morris Park, Germantown, Bryn
  Mawr, Roxborough, Chestnut Hill, Trout Lake, Center City, Radnor
  Township, Plymouth Meeting, King Of Prussia, West Conshohocken,
  Penn Wynne, Glenside, Ardmore, Wyndmoor, Wyncote, and Flourtown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 330 and 343.
 Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 10, and between mile
markers 14 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 7535 4008 7535 4011 7514 3996 7514
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 267DEG 10KT 4003 7530

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

AKL

 

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