Pittsburgh, Pa Summer 2024 Thread.

[meatwad]

New thread for summer.

[PghPirates27]

Here's to some 90's I hope.

[Ahoff]

Looks like a pretty cool start to summer after today.

[TheClimateChanger]

Not too bad out there today. Thought it would feel hotter, but the humidity is on the lower side.

[PghPirates27]

topped out at 87.8 today I feel.

[TimB]

We’ll see if the upcoming cool period is enough to offset both the above normal first 5 days and the hot period later in week 2 that the ensembles are converging on, or if we get our 12th straight above normal month. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on the latter.

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, TimB said:

We’ll see if the upcoming cool period is enough to offset both the above normal first 5 days and the hot period later in week 2 that the ensembles are converging on, or if we get our 12th straight above normal month. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on the latter.

Yes, I suspect it finishes somewhat above on the whole. I've read from several sources I trust that the second half of June should be fairly hot.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TimB]

On 6/5/2024 at 9:26 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

Yes, I suspect it finishes somewhat above on the whole. I've read from several sources I trust that the second half of June should be fairly hot.

To that point, we could get into that extreme heat category as early as next Saturday. Euro and Canadian both have us getting to at least 94 on that day. There are 23 instances in the threaded record of the temperature getting to 94 on or before June 15th, but only two of those were at the airport (6/14/1994 got to 96 in the midst of what is the standard-bearer for mid-June heatwaves in Pittsburgh, and 6/15/1988 got to 94 and I don’t think much more needs to be said about that summer).

Still plenty of time for the magnitude and duration of the heat to change, but all indications right now are that full-blown summer is upon us in a week or so.

[Ahoff]

14 hours ago, TimB said:

To that point, we could get into that extreme heat category as early as next Saturday. Euro and Canadian both have us getting to at least 94 on that day. There are 23 instances in the threaded record of the temperature getting to 94 on or before June 15th, but only two of those were at the airport (6/14/1994 got to 96 in the midst of what is the standard-bearer for mid-June heatwaves in Pittsburgh, and 6/15/1988 got to 94 and I don’t think much more needs to be said about that summer).

Still plenty of time for the magnitude and duration of the heat to change, but all indications right now are that full-blown summer is upon us in a week or so.

Well, we know that long range heat is almost never as high as it appears, but upper 80s could be possible.

[Ahoff]

Welp, we'll see, but true summer may be upon us.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 6/6/2024 at 4:30 PM, TimB said:

To that point, we could get into that extreme heat category as early as next Saturday. Euro and Canadian both have us getting to at least 94 on that day. There are 23 instances in the threaded record of the temperature getting to 94 on or before June 15th, but only two of those were at the airport (6/14/1994 got to 96 in the midst of what is the standard-bearer for mid-June heatwaves in Pittsburgh, and 6/15/1988 got to 94 and I don’t think much more needs to be said about that summer).

Still plenty of time for the magnitude and duration of the heat to change, but all indications right now are that full-blown summer is upon us in a week or so.

In any case, looks like June will finish above normal. I believe that will make twelve consecutive months.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

In any case, looks like June will finish above normal. I believe that will make twelve consecutive months.

Indeed, that is 12 consecutive months. There was that stretch of 18 months from February 2016 through July 2017 above the 1981-2010 normals, but I think a couple of those months are now below the 1991-2020 normals.

[TimB]

The euro’s depiction of this upcoming heatwave is brutal, though it’s still pretty far out. 3 days of highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the upper 70s.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Indeed, that is 12 consecutive months. There was that stretch of 18 months from February 2016 through July 2017 above the 1981-2010 normals, but I think a couple of those months are now below the 1991-2020 normals.

What's crazy is I thought for sure at midmonth, we'd be below normal. But looking at the current departure plus the forecast through the 15th, it now looks like we'll be slightly warmer than normal, even before the heat returns.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

The euro’s depiction of this upcoming heatwave is brutal, though it’s still pretty far out. 3 days of highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the upper 70s.

I think it's just a matter of time before we have a record breaking summer, maybe this will be the year?

Here's the top 10 by warmest mean temperature. The 19th century data doesn't really jive with the limited data out there from other locations in the region (even considering the change in location). In more recent times from the airport location, 1995 is 5th warmest and 2016 is 8th warmest.

Unlike a lot of locations, more recent decades have done somewhat better with average maximum temperature [suggesting some of the early warmth is driven by warm lows]. On this list, 1995 is 2nd; 1988 is 4th; and 1991 is 6th. I do find it a little suspect that in the small era of the defective HO-83 hygrothermometer (mid 1980s to 1995), so many warm maximum temperatures were observed (1987, 1988, 1991, 1993-1995).

Regardless, in this era, where lows don't drop and even cold snaps can barely drop below normal, imagine if a 1988 or 1995 type pattern were to set up. Anyways, enjoy the next couple of days. Looks like we might throw up some rare -8 or larger departures.

[TheClimateChanger]

I saw a post on Reddit saying the weather hasn't felt like summer in Pittsburgh. Of course, this is patently absurd. It's June 10th, and the first 9 days of June have been 2.2F above normal. It's even more ridiculous when you consider fully 12 ENTIRE summers (JJA) were cooler than the first 9 days of June this year [by far, the coldest part of meteorological summer historically]. 11 of them in the 35 years between 1958 & 1992 (inclusive). So historically at the airport in the late 20th century, roughly 1 in 3 ENTIRE summers were cooler than than the first 9 days of June. Fully 19 summers have been within 0.4F of the first 9 days of June. Some people have a really warped sense of what "normal" is.

Even by mean maximum temperatures, there have been several cooler summers and fully 14 that were no more than 0.4F warmer of the first 9 days of June this year.

While certainly it would be a cool summer if this happened, historically it would be far from unprecedented for these conditions to persist for an entire summer [including second half of June, all of July and August].

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I saw a post on Reddit saying the weather hasn't felt like summer in Pittsburgh. Of course, this is patently absurd. It's June 10th, and the first 9 days of June have been 2.2F above normal. It's even more ridiculous when you consider fully 12 summers (JJA) were cooler than the first 9 days of June this year. 11 of them in the 35 years between 1958 & 1992 (inclusive). So historically at the airport, roughly 1 in 3 ENTIRE summers were cooler than than the first 9 days of June during that stretch. Fully 19 summers have been within 0.4F of the first 9 days of June. Some people have a really warped sense of what "normal" is.

Even by mean maximum temperatures, there have been several cooler summers and fully 14 that were no more than 0.4F warmer of the first 9 days of June this year.

While certainly it would be a cool summer if this happened, historically it would be far from unprecedented for these conditions to persist for an entire summer [including second half of June, all of July and August].

Thanks for the reminder about 2004. Only 20 years ago and it’s unfathomable that we could ever go an entire summer without getting above 87, and the entirety of July and August without getting above 86.

[Ahoff]

Rare sight for these parts.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[Ahoff]

NWS point and click has KPIT at 94 for Monday.  Not to say it will get there, but to see a temperature that high this far out is wild.  Weather Channel has 9 consecutive days at or above 90, with a peak of 96.  That'd be the longest June heat wave ever, I believe.

[jwilson]

Haven't lived in Pittsburgh forever, but for as long as I've been here, June has never felt appreciably "hot."  Many times I've noticed it's relatively cool for the transition to summer.

Either this portends a hot summer, as many predicted, or we even it out later with a cooling off during the summer spike.  Anyone aware of how the wildfires factor in, if they are as relevant compared to last year?

[Ahoff]

NWS point and click is up to 95 for Monday.

[TheClimateChanger]

21 hours ago, jwilson said:

Haven't lived in Pittsburgh forever, but for as long as I've been here, June has never felt appreciably "hot."  Many times I've noticed it's relatively cool for the transition to summer.

Either this portends a hot summer, as many predicted, or we even it out later with a cooling off during the summer spike.  Anyone aware of how the wildfires factor in, if they are as relevant compared to last year?

Yes, it would be fairly unusual if the heat pans out. For sh*ts and giggles, I ran out the Accuweather forecast temperatures for Pittsburgh International and came up with a mean of 72.9F. It looked like it was returning more downtown Pittsburgh than the airport, so I re-ran using the forecast for Carnot-Moon and came up with a mean of 72.3F. The NWS point-click forecast centered on PIT would get us to 69.8F by the 18th, which matches what Accuweather shows for Carnot-Moon. 

Neither of these values are close to the record in the threaded history, but the warmest June at PIT is 1967 with a mean of 73.0F, followed by 72.9F in 1994, 72.6F in 1991, and 72.3F in 1996. June is one month that hasn't had a lot of top tier warmth in recent years. If the Accuweather forecast were to verify, it would be the warmest in about 30 years. Wouldn't normally put too much stock in it, but it tracks the NWS forecast for the next week. And CPC has us in a ridiculous 80-90% chance of above normal in the 8-14 day period (June 19th through 25th). That's about as high as they ever go.

[TimB]

I know the Euro overdoes heat, but it has 97, 94, 99, 96, 98 for the 18z temps Mon-Fri of next week.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

I know the Euro overdoes heat, but it has 97, 94, 99, 96, 98 for the 18z temps Mon-Fri of next week.

Yeah, I'm going to take the under there. I have to doubt we have daily record highs on 4 of 5 days next week, break the monthly record high, tie the old monthly record high on another day, and have a third day within 1F of the monthly record - all within a 5-day stretch.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, I'm going to take the under there. I have to doubt we have daily record highs on 4 of 5 days next week, break the monthly record high, tie the old monthly record high on another day, and have a third day within 1F of the monthly record - all within a 5-day stretch.

Wouldn’t be shocked if we hit 94 or 95 but upper 90s seems difficult to say the least. There’s a reason we’ve only reached the upper 90s in one of the last 28 years.

[TheClimateChanger]

31 minutes ago, TimB said:

Wouldn’t be shocked if we hit 94 or 95 but upper 90s seems difficult to say the least. There’s a reason we’ve only reached the upper 90s in one of the last 28 years.

The European temperature forecasts in hot summer patterns always seem to be off for this part of the country. Always has a very " warm wintertime" pattern with hot air funneling up the Ohio Valley bringing in temperatures across western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia which are hotter than places to the west. This is a common temperature pattern in the winter, but almost never happens in the summer. Realistically, to get upper 90s in southwest Pennsylvania, you would want to see low 100s across western/central Ohio and Indiana. Not cooler temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.

[TheClimateChanger]

The map on the left is not a believable presentation. It's almost never 3F hotter in Wheeling and Pittsburgh than Columbus and Dayton in this weather pattern - let alone 2F hotter than Charleston. And several degrees hotter than Baltimore, Washington and Philly in the coastal plain.