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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

image.thumb.png.49cc1aaaa8158c9c451ac1b9ebcba34e.png

Was it the GFS that a day or two prior to July 4th had highs in the 70s for the LSV that day? My high was like 15-20 degrees higher than what it showed...I think it was the GFS?

Regardless, there were a couple of times last week that the models really put a beatdown on forecasters. I'm not buying into this depiction but I'm also not dismissing it. 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Was it the GFS that a day or two prior to July 4th had highs in the 70s for the LSV that day? My high was like 15-20 degrees higher than what it showed...I think it was the GFS?

Regardless, there were a couple of times last week that the models really put a beatdown on forecasters. I'm not buying into this depiction but I'm also not dismissing it. 

It has been back and forth but not 90's on Wednesday are not a guarantee right now.

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lets not over do it outside the next two days.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
354 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-152100-
/O.CON.KCTP.EH.W.0001.240715T1600Z-240717T0000Z/
/O.CON.KCTP.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240715T1600Z/
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Newport, Lancaster, Harrisburg,
Chambersburg, Hershey, Gettysburg, York, Carlisle, and Lebanon
354 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Oppressive heat with peak heat index values around 105
  degrees this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.

* WHERE...Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon,
  Perry, and York Counties.

* WHEN...For the Heat Advisory, until noon EDT today. For the
  Excessive Heat Warning, from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during
  extreme heat and high humidity events.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay out of the sun, and stay in an
air-conditioned room.

The heat may be life-threatening to the elderly and those in poor
health, due to prolonged exposure without air conditioning.
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All this hype about the heat index for the upcoming days, and just last week I recorded a 110 and a 113 heat index, or "feels like" temperature if you prefer on my home station. So far they say what? 105? If so, my recordings were much higher and much worse.

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

All this hype about the heat index for the upcoming days, and just last week I recorded a 110 and a 113 heat index, or "feels like" temperature if you prefer on my home station. So far they say what? 105? If so, my recordings were much higher and much worse.

For some places the high temp is the story vs. HI.  One local station over here recorded 104 yesterday, DP was 60....HI 105, only one over the high.   Whether they really got to 104, cannot say for sure but lots of 100's over here yesterday so they were in the arena. 

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10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

All this hype about the heat index for the upcoming days, and just last week I recorded a 110 and a 113 heat index, or "feels like" temperature if you prefer on my home station. So far they say what? 105? If so, my recordings were much higher and much worse.

It may be that your home station is overcooking the dew point numbers by a good bit.  A common problem I have found.  Didn't you say your DP was above 80 on a few occasions?  Seems a bit overdone.  And that's to say nothing of any air temp anomalies as well.  I know I can't trust my own station during peak solar hours. 

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47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

First a nooner and now dinner pics.  Time's a changin' in Mt Joy? 

Haha yeah who knows!?  Although, I still had to go through the whole rigmarole of emailing the pic from my phone to my work email and then saving it and then importing it and making sure the file wasn't too large and blah blah blah, so I don't think I'll suddenly become some prolific pic poster ha.  Also, the nooner report was only because it was a cloudy/rainy day and I felt comfortable that the report was accurate.  Normally I'm too embarrassed to report my midday temp because I know it's like 2-4 degrees too high.  All that is to say, maybe I'm not changing after all haha.

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha yeah who knows!?  Although, I still had to go through the whole rigmarole of emailing the pic from my phone to my work email and then saving it and then importing it and making sure the file wasn't too large and blah blah blah, so I don't think I'll suddenly become some prolific pic poster ha.  Also, the nooner report was only because it was a cloudy/rainy day and I felt comfortable that the report was accurate.  Normally I'm too embarrassed to report my midday temp because I know it's like 2-4 degrees too high.  All that is to say, maybe I'm not changing after all haha.

If you do a PBP for today's 12Z runs describing who does and does not get MDT to 90 on Wed, then I am going to conclude something has changed.  Ha. 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If you do a PBP for today's 12Z runs describing who does and does not get MDT to 90 on Wed, then I am going to conclude something has changed.  Ha. 

You're on!  First up is the NAM, at 11am Wednesday it has MDT at 86 with the front on the approach.

Edit:  At 2pm MDT is 88 with the front kind of stalled out.  A weak front, at that.  5pm MDT 87 and LNS 90.  Would be a close call verbatim. 

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 72.  One day I'll get rain again.  Maybe.

I am now over 100 days since I last had 1" of rain in a day.

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It was!  See below for a rare MJS pic.....

Grill.jpg.e7f25c5039178c058416c7ce31b2091d.jpg

THAT - is one great looking meal!

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11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You're on!  First up is the NAM, at 11am Wednesday it has MDT at 86 with the front on the approach.

Edit:  At 2pm MDT is 88 with the front kind of stalled out.  A weak front, at that. 

Yea, and somewhat moisture starved unfortunately.   3K does show MDT at 91 so round one to Canderson...Canderson v. Models.  

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It may be that your home station is overcooking the dew point numbers by a good bit.  A common problem I have found.  Didn't you say your DP was above 80 on a few occasions?  Seems a bit overdone.  And that's to say nothing of any air temp anomalies as well.  I know I can't trust my own station during peak solar hours. 

I did question this the past couple of days, but comparing my station against a mercury thermometer in the shade on my back porch, the numbers are comparable. I just now looked at the NWS hourly roundup, and my current 71 dewpoint is equally comparable with all the reporting stations in the region.

If it's off, it's not by much.

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I am now over 100 days since I last had 1" of rain in a day.

THAT - is one great looking meal!

Thanks mate.  It really did turn out perfect.  One of those rare occasions when everything comes off the grill at the exact same time and cooked just right.  #MediumRare

I've had one day over an inch during that time span -- 1.12" on June 5.

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I am now over 100 days since I last had 1" of rain in a day.

THAT - is one great looking meal!

Seems that we cannot go a summer without major drought issues even if some get lucky some years...the overall trend, big picture, is many areas of the LSV or near go through drought every summer. 

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I saw this over the weekend. It's the Aug-Sept-Oct temp maps. No shock to see Northeast goes from above average in Aug and Sep to well above average for many in PA in Oct. I have already brought up possibility of big storms including hurricanes in some area(s) of US on or right before election day. Now I am wondering closer to home what our weather will be on November 5. Average high/low for Williamsport on that date is 55/36. Record high/low is 77/19. 

We are supposed to have our hottest day today at 95, tomorrow at 93 according to wonderground.com

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/your-late-summer-and-early-fall-temperature-outlook?cm_ven=hp-slot-1

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