Bubbler86 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU calling for 92 here tomorrow. Downsloping winds and lower dews...I would be surprised if I don't hit or exceed 90. Shouldn't have too far to go to get there either. I think some models have you topping near 82-83. I doubt I break 80 here with lows 60-65 tonight (here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 Good storm, wind blown rain good bit of lightning. Heavy thunder and more importantly .66 rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think some models have you topping near 82-83. I doubt I break 80 here with lows 60-65 tonight (here) Wow. I've never placed a bet in my life but that's tempting. I'll take the over on that. Maybe not 90 but low 80s? I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Quite the lightning show now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Do you ever not cash in? #winning Well a few years ago, probably a 5 Sq. Mile area in the summer storms went around us. Farmers were hurting in that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 I’m pretty angry about that failure of rain - it didn’t even get windy. It actual was calmer wind than the rest or the f’n day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 @Mount Joy Snowman there is some intensification just west of York city. Right now, I'm positioned perfectly to miss north and south. Hopefully it fills in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 1 minute ago, canderson said: I’m pretty angry about that failure of rain - it didn’t even get windy. It actual was calmer wind than the rest or the f’n day You might have to wait till you get tropical storm remnants later this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Just now, mahantango#1 said: You might have to wait till you get tropical storm remnants later this year. I've been thinking about that the past few weeks. My rain drought will end with a 9" monsoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wow. I've never placed a bet in my life but that's tempting. I'll take the over on that. Maybe not 90 but low 80s? I'm skeptical. Haha, no bets. But not one meso I saw gets you up to 90 so a fair call to say you stay in the 80's even if it is wrong. On the biggies the 3K and Rgem are 83, the HRRR just went up a few degrees and is upper 80's, Fv3 is 82. With all this said, my reply was to Altoona as well! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 CTP has my high at 88 for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Haha, no bets. But not one meso I saw gets you up to 90 so a fair call to say you stay in the 80's even if it is wrong. On the biggies the 3K and Rgem are 83, the HRRR just went up a few degrees and is upper 80's, Fv3 is 82. Models vs. Met! One is going to miss pretty badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Models vs. Met! One is going to miss pretty badly. Hrrr is not too far from MU. Your nws zone waffles and says "near 90" which is 87 -93. The models that rain on you sat are also below 90 that day. One was in the 60's at 18z as unlikely as that sounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've been thinking about that the past few weeks. My rain drought will end with a 9" monsoon. It happened in 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Just now, mahantango#1 said: It happened in 2011 I had 15.5" in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I had 15.5" in 2011. Re: do not eat dinner out during a monsoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I had 15.5" in 2011. I had 15 inches also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Re: do not eat dinner out during a monsoon! Funny thing- Lee came on my birthday. We went out to dinner that evening. We did not make it home. We spent the night with family because every possible route home that night was closed due to flooding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I had 15 inches also. https://youtu.be/73gVsgkYPQ8?si=E-Of0tLDX4ftcmAu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Funny thing- Lee came on my birthday. We went out to dinner that evening. We did not make it home. We spent the night with family because every possible route home that night was closed due to flooding. That was the event I was referring to as I remember you talking about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summit Snow Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 I had 15.5" in 2011.I was thinking about this problem the last day or two. Rainfall statistics in lacking and trying to express the following problem. Say you have 12 weeks that you're looking at and each week I was in the inch of rain so the 12 weeks were quite the 12 in of rain as normal. Getting 13 inches of rain in one day and it's being dry every other day is a lot different than when rain is all spread out. So how is your quantify this. I guess in the ideal environment it would rain a little each daySent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summit Snow Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Just now, Summit Snow said: Shit about to get real up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I was thinking about this problem the last day or two. Rainfall statistics in lacking and trying to express the following problem. Say you have 12 weeks that you're looking at and each week I was in the inch of rain so the 12 weeks were quite the 12 in of rain as normal. Getting 13 inches of rain in one day and it's being dry every other day is a lot different than when rain is all spread out. So how is your quantify this. I guess in the ideal environment it would rain a little each day Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk We have talked about this before. I cannot quantify anything to an exact science but to me and thinking about vegetation and grass, over a 12 week period, .5" per week is far superior to no rain for 11 weeks and ANY amount for the one week. My thought is not limited to equal amounts. The 6' over 12 weeks is better than 20" in one week...better than 30' for the week, etc. Even .3" per week all summer is better than 20 in one week. Now when talking about ground water, it is not as clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Mount Joy Snowman there is some intensification just west of York city. Right now, I'm positioned perfectly to miss north and south. Hopefully it fills in. I got about a quarter inch in ten minutes. No real wind or lightning. Pretty pedestrian but I’ll take it. Sitting at a cool 80/77 ha. Looking forward to things feeling different in the morning. Night, all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Mdt bagged a Trace....enhancing it's chance to hold on to it's max min record for the day. Down to 71 here. Would not be surprised to see some 50's tomorrow am (on wunderground) in colder areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I got about a quarter inch in ten minutes. No real wind or lightning. Pretty pedestrian but I’ll take it. Sitting at a cool 80/77 ha. Looking forward to things feeling different in the morning. Night, all. 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Mdt bagged a Trace....enhancing it's chance to hold on to it's max min record for the day. Down to 71 here. Would not be surprised to see some 50's tomorrow am (on wunderground) in colder areas. HR Mike bagged .13" tonight. First time over a tenth of an inch in weeks. The line blew up again just east of here. Got something though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 .38 in Marysville from that line earlier this evening. More mowing will be needed in a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 We have talked about this before. I cannot quantify anything to an exact science but to me and thinking about vegetation and grass, over a 12 week period, .5" per week is far superior to no rain for 11 weeks and ANY amount for the one week. My thought is not limited to equal amounts. The 6' over 12 weeks is better than 20" in one week...better than 30' for the week, etc. Even .3" per week all summer is better than 20 in one week. Now when talking about ground water, it is not as clear.An idea. Breakup the 12 weeks into 28 sets, each set is 3 days. So if you average 12" of rain over 12 weeks that's about 0.43" every 3 days. For each 3 day set you sum up the absolute value of any deficit. So in that example where there is no rain for 11 weeks than 13" one day in week 12 you would have 27 sets of 0.43 which would equal 11.61". Than you can just do (11.61/12)×100 = 96.8% brown grass metric, haha. But I'm sure if I do that for all the years that we have data and then I should be able to do a rank order as well as see some fun pattern. I'm thinking the hardest thing is going to be figuring out what daily average number to use. For say July 11, 1955 do I use the 30 year average From 1920-1950, our most recent 30 year average, or the average for the length of the entire data set. I also feel best method would be to get to daily average by way of monthly average divided by number of days. Any suggestions would be helpful. Not sure if I'll end up doing it in python or excel. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Got 0 66" at the house. Of course it hit right when I was hooking up to load my last delivery of the night. I got soaked. Then I got to run in it all the way to Allentown where I got soaked again. No real wind, but it was a good rain and lightning producer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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