pasnownut Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: I fully expect the next statement to bite me in the ass but for a year that they're predicting record numbers of tropical systems we sure are starting damn slow. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk If memory serves, prior 2 seasons were also supposed to be Epic.... Got home from cabin work weekend, and watched some youtube vids. Saw my first prediction of a cold and snowy winter en route to the east...I chuckled aloud. Just like the heat and hurricanes, just a lot of hot air keeping the nothinburgers warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Outside of saturday, when I look at those temps in aggregate I kind of feel like the heat wave was a bit underwhelming. Safe to say the Euro was overdone? We declaring a model winner with this one? I'd take the past weeks heatwave anytime.... Saturday did moderately suck though.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 I'd take the past weeks heatwave anytime.... Saturday did moderately suck though....Saturday was only day that deserved the “media hype” coverage.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 14 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'd take the past weeks heatwave anytime.... Saturday did moderately suck though.... 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Saturday was only day that deserved the “media hype” coverage. . 100% agree. Monday-Friday were tolerable enough, but Saturday was a bit much. I'm sure being outside for 7 hours continuously had a lot to do with my perception. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Lol I was above 90/70 for like 5-6 straight days in June, it’s notable…I don’t get the reflexive hate for weather people bringing up weather topics of importance during a literal weather segment. What else are they going to talk about? Why not warn people spending extra time outside of heat related illness? Just seems silly thing to trash forecasters on imo or even be too worked up about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 I was 92+ every day Monday through Sunday. That’s a legit heat wave. Especially when lows were never below 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 I just want to be clear we're now tempting faith to send a cat 4 up the bay and leave us without power for a week in September in the middle of a great heatwaveSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 46 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Saturday was only day that deserved the “media hype” coverage. . 39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 100% agree. Monday-Friday were tolerable enough, but Saturday was a bit much. I'm sure being outside for 7 hours continuously had a lot to do with my perception. I personally think too much emphasis is placed on the 90-degree mark. To get to 90-94 in the LSV June-Sept is almost normal now plus most nights were in the 60's outside cities until this weekend so it was not even that warm at night...average is 65. I felt like some in the media were rooting on MDT to break 90 to verify Heat Wave conditions. I cannot tell the difference between 85 (average for right now) and 90 when outside. Take a look at the difference between the last week and the July 2020 Heat Wave at CXY. 20 of 23 days 90 and above and 13 consecutive. Only 4 of the 13 were 94 or below. I picked CXY for the graphic because of three 100 readings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Also I'm dying now94/79 with HI 112SUCKS DICKSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 The AMS came up with this formula to determine Heat Waves with some averages (in this case the number exceeding what would be seen at the station 1% or less of the time) being used in most sections. Note only 2 days are needed for some definitions. I posted something like this a few years ago as a commentary/lead into discussion of the pitfalls in using the 90-degree mark when that mark is 5 or less degrees above normal (plus this definition uses HI not straight temp.) This is from 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 The AMS came up with this formula to determine Heat Waves with some averages (in this case the number exceeding what would be seen at the station 1% or less of the time) being used in most sections. Note only 2 days are needed for some definitions. I posted something like this a few years ago as a commentary/lead into discussion of the pitfalls in using the 90-degree mark when that mark is 5 or less degrees above normal (plus this definition uses HI not straight temp.) This is from 2001. So what exactly would constitute the heat wave in Harrisburg and then in capital city airport and then the surrounding areasSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: So what exactly would constitute the heat wave in Harrisburg and then in capital city airport and then the surrounding areas Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That is the question. I know of 3 accepted definitions. Over 90 for 3 or more consecutive days, 9 degrees above average for 5 or more consecutive days or this one above where the HI has to be over 105 for 2 or more days AND the lows have to remain 80 or above. MDT easily made #1, they made #2 as well though it was just by one degree on two of the days. They did not come close using the third more stringent definition. I do not believe LNS, HGR, THV made it using the second definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Do meteorologist in Texas, Arizona or Nevada even keep count of heatwaves? Like do they emphasize it is our 50th straight day of 90F and above?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Just now, Superstorm said: Do meteorologist in Texas, Arizona or Nevada even keep count of heatwaves? Like do they emphasize it is our 50th straight day of 90F and above? . Interesting comment and to tag on to that (I do not know the answer to your question) the article from 2001 noted that the original definition of a heat wave was too stringent (even higher than the 105/80 thing) for the North and West US because stations never met the criteria where as the southern stations met it several times a month; thus the need for location variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 I think it should be 95/75 with HI over 104 for 6 hours straight. Any 2/3 variables Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Plus 3 straight days of suchSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I think it should be 95/75 with HI over 104 for 6 hours straight. Any 2/3 variables Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk One way to see how soft the 90 three days option is, since 1980 MDT has reached 90 and above on 3 consecutive days 133 times (not 133 days, 133 times of 3 or more days.) That is 3 times per year when dividing it out to an average. Lester Holt would need to talk Heat Waves all summer...granted this run of 90 and over was longer than average coming in tied as the 13th longest since 1980. More fairly drastic stats, during the same 1980-2024 time frame LNS had 3 consecutive 90+ days 67 times or half of MDT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 One way to see how soft the 90 three days option is, since 1980 MDT has reached 90 and above on 3 consecutive days 133 times (not 133 days, 133 times of 3 or more days.) That is 3 times per year when dividing it out to an average. Lester Holt would need to talk Heat Waves all summer...granted this run of 90 and over was longer than average coming in tied as the 13th longest since 1980.See how awesome they reach 95 through straight times and a heatwave should be like only one to twice a decadeSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: See how awesome they reach 95 through straight times and a heatwave should be like only one to twice a decade Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I agree heat waves should not be an event that happens 3x a year, but I still like using norms vs. set temps. Norms with a set minimum whether 95 or something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The AMS came up with this formula to determine Heat Waves with some averages (in this case the number exceeding what would be seen at the station 1% or less of the time) being used in most sections. Note only 2 days are needed for some definitions. I posted something like this a few years ago as a commentary/lead into discussion of the pitfalls in using the 90-degree mark when that mark is 5 or less degrees above normal (plus this definition uses HI not straight temp.) This is from 2001. Nobody uses that definition, nor should they. You realize there are only 6 overnight lows of 80F+ in Harrisburg weather history? None on back-to-back nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 So I think they should be norms taking them to account of the max highs and the max lows and with that we could do an exponential function for each so that's if the mass high is one of four and then max low is -23 but the average high is 87 and one month in the average low is 16 and another month a low of 6 versus a high of 97 although the same on a plus minus rating should not be accounted the same way if we are looking at probabilities of occurring. And truthfully I think the best choice for any of this is to look at the top 5% of highs and top five or sense of lows and going off those. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 35 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Do meteorologist in Texas, Arizona or Nevada even keep count of heatwaves? Like do they emphasize it is our 50th straight day of 90F and above? . They mark days above 100 in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Is it this windy for anyone else? It's blowing strong and getting stronger. Sustained int he 20s, gusting to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Is it this windy for anyone else? It's blowing strong and getting stronger. Sustained int he 20s, gusting to 40. Windy here and feels good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: One way to see how soft the 90 three days option is, since 1980 MDT has reached 90 and above on 3 consecutive days 133 times (not 133 days, 133 times of 3 or more days.) That is 3 times per year when dividing it out to an average. Lester Holt would need to talk Heat Waves all summer...granted this run of 90 and over was longer than average coming in tied as the 13th longest since 1980. More fairly drastic stats, during the same 1980-2024 time frame LNS had 3 consecutive 90+ days 67 times or half of MDT. The 3-day definition was never intended for very hot climates like Harrisburg. Pittsburgh has had 26 stretches of 3 or more 90F readings in a row since 2000 - an average of about once per year. When people think of a heat wave, they think of a period of heat that is expected to occur about once a year more or less. Harrisburg, on the other hand, has had 75 stretches of 3 or more 90F readings since 2000 - an average of about 3 per year. To get it to that once per year sweet spot, you should be using 5+ days of 90F or more. There have been 28 of those, or just a little more than once per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Is it this windy for anyone else? It's blowing strong and getting stronger. Sustained int he 20s, gusting to 40. MU Weather Center Some crazy wind out there today by #summer standards (in the absence of T-storms). Peak gusts through 1 PM have reached 39 mph at Lancaster Apt, 37 mph at Harrisburg, & 31 mph at York Apt. Keep a tight grip on the wheel, especially on east-west oriented highways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 IMO, the 3-day threshold is more appropriate for places like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Buffalo, Albany, Boston, etc. Not sure why it became the standard in Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Tonight the Bears can repeat. Can't wait to watch! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Nobody uses that definition, nor should they. You realize there are only 6 overnight lows of 80F+ in Harrisburg weather history? None on back-to-back nights. Their point was that heat waves should be rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 IMO, the 3-day threshold is more appropriate for places like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Buffalo, Albany, Boston, etc. Not sure why it became the standard in Harrisburg.I think 3 day 95+ is validSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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