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When it really comes down to it, I agree. It would be foolish to expect temps to be maxed out during a heat wave without any convection or clouds to gum up the works, which it seems the models have picked up on, even if NWS is a little hesitant to buy into.
Usually it is just one overnight convection mass within a week of hell hot and human temperatures. She's always happen in the wee hours of the morning and the thunder is beyond amazing That's why I love it

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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

Usually it is just one overnight convection mass within a week of hell hot and human temperatures. She's always happen in the wee hours of the morning and the thunder is beyond amazing That's why I love it

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“Hot and human” temperatures. So you’re forecasting a high of 98.6?

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13 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If the GFS wins this wee and the national weather service ends up with egg on their face it's going to cause an issue where no one's going to believe anything from the national weather service for many many years so

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The GFS is still hot, it is just not 95-100 hot except next Sat.    The CMC has not really been across the board either though it is a touch warmer at 12Z and has several days over 95 now.  The Euro is the only model that has consistently backed the predicts of record-breaking temps.   Check this out.

 

image.png.dcfc3ebf29e994d7034b3df8725dd2a6.png

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The GFS is still hot, it is just not 95-100 hot except next Sat.    The CMC has not really been across the board either though it is a touch warmer at 12Z and has several days over 95 now.  The Euro is the only model that has consistently backed the predicts of record-breaking temps.   Check this out.
 
image.png.dcfc3ebf29e994d7034b3df8725dd2a6.png
Up here we have bone dry and probably down where you are which is going to add a few degrees to all these forecasts with the GFS

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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

Up here we have bone dry and probably down where you are which is going to add a few degrees to all these forecasts with the GFS

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If it were me doing the real forecast right now, I would not predict anything over 95 through Thursday (LSV) knowing some back yard therms will break it but the overall area temp averaged out. 

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If it were me doing the real forecast right now, I would not predict anything over 95 through Thursday (LSV) knowing some back yard therms will break it but the overall area temp averaged out. 
If it hits 600dm at 500mb within 250 miles of us we are going over 100

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If the dry models/ridge centered closer to LSV are right, I just completed my final mow until probably mid-July and it was only a 2/3 mow.   Quite nice out.  76 and breezy.   Windows open LSV tonight.   18Z GFS, highest 18Z Temp at MDT through Friday is 88.   Not posting these to say it is right vs. keeping the giant differences in front as it will be interesting to watch this play out.   Showers around LSV Tue and North PA most days next week. 

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If the dry models/ridge centered closer to LSV are right, I just completed my final mow until probably mid-July and it was only a 2/3 mow.   Quite nice out.  76 and breezy.   Windows open LSV tonight.   18Z GFS, highest 18Z Temp at MDT through Friday is 88.   Not posting these to say it is right vs. keeping the giant differences in front as it will be interesting to watch this play out.   Showers around LSV Tue and North PA most days next week. 
I'm worried all your vegetation will turn to dust by then

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Ninja watering.  2AM.  
Hose 12 gal per minute

So, you need to water your 100 square feet of grass for approximately 2.60 minutes with your hose to provide the equivalent of 1/2 inch of rainfall.

FYI

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6 hours ago, Voyager said:

That heat writeup sounds pretty ominous. Saturday at Knoebels (wife's company picnic) could be quite the experience. I can imagine some hellish wait times to get on the water rides, and the pool will be absolutely jammed.

I just spent the day at Delgrosso's Park. The water park was insane. 

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The only single thing I ever enjoyed about these heat domes was the random 4:00 a.m. MCV that started up by Chicago and came all the way around to hit us because the insane thunder and lightning in those. But my luck is I will miss it since I'm leaving Thursday

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