Bubbler86 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: One of these models will need shot into the sun Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I think some of it is the punting of the possible intense heat, due to a small change in ridge alignment, to 6 days from now vs. early next week. GFS has been cutting back on precip some. A few days ago the Euro was showing 100 at 18Z on Wed. Now it is better aligned with the others showing low to mid 90's at 18Z though still 3-5 too high compared to the GFS/CMS. CMC has us in the 70's and low 80's but next Sat and Sun so there is an out here where no records are challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 18Z Wed Compare. These are 2PM Temps so usually add 2-4 if not cloudy (for highs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Delayed but not denied. I guess I did bring the AZ heat to PA, just a couple weeks late. If I wasn't getting lynched for jinxing you guy's the past few winters, I'm surely gonna get it for this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Nice morning. 64 was the low, stiff breeze makes it feel cooler than the 68 it is at 8:30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Low of 59 to go with exactly 3/4” of rain. Beautiful weekend before we all get fried. Enjoy it, all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Nice morning. 64 was the low, stiff breeze makes it feel cooler than the 68 it is at 8:30.I think you did miss an event the last 25 days. I'm at 1.53" since 5/20Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Epic game unfolding in Baltimore. Baseball at it's best. World Series Preview? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 1 hour ago, Voyager said: Delayed but not denied. I guess I did bring the AZ heat to PA, just a couple weeks late. If I wasn't getting lynched for jinxing you guy's the past few winters, I'm surely gonna get it for this... Thank you. I am becoming a warminsta. I'll take this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 37 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I think you did miss an event the last 25 days. I'm at 1.53" since 5/20 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That might be the storm that gave my office 1” but nothing at home - it didn’t rain N of the Harvey Taylor … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 That might be the storm that gave my office 1” but nothing at home - it didn’t rain N of the Harvey Taylor …You are primed to go 40 days with barely any rain followed by a storm sitting over you for 3 hours dumping 6" and your monthly rainfall will be above normal and it will be hilarious how things like a mean rainfall absolutely do not give an accurate portrait of the weather many times Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 I drought. Swing in a miss yesterday with nothing but more dry weather in front of me. Congrats someone else. No mowing in my future. The champ is about to be dethroned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 1 hour ago, paweather said: World Series Preview? Yankees will have something to say about that. Could be a Philly - NYY 15th anniversary series. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 I drought. Swing in a miss yesterday with nothing but more dry weather in front of me. Congrats someone else. No mowing in my future. The champ is about to be dethroned.Ouch for usSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 @Itstrainingtime I think it's time for you to change your avatar to a guy surrounded by brown grassSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: @Itstrainingtime I think it's time for you to change your avatar to a guy surrounded by brown grass Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Correct - or a desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 MU with a lengthy write up yesterday on the upcoming week - uh, yeah...if I'm reading correctly he's on board with hot weather: Unfortunately, a heatwave of epic proportions will overtake the Central and Eastern States next week. Millions of residents across more than a dozen states will bake under oppressive heat and humidity for the entire week and into the following weekend. Temperatures will soar to record-challenging or record-breaking levels in multiple states on at least 2 or 3 days during the long-duration sizzlefest (see below). This will end up being the first official heatwave.. defined as 3 or more consecutive days with highs temperatures of 90°F or higher.. of 2024 and could exceed the last one (Labor Day Weekend 2023) in terms of humidity and heat indices. The potential exists for several days in a row with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and heat indices of 100°F or more across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. It's not out of the question that high temperatures themselves reach 100-102°F in spots next Friday-Sunday. The aforementioned high pressure system will shift into the western Atlantic by Monday and essentially "camp out" there for the rest of the week. On its backside, broad, southwesterly flow originating from the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will draw progressively hotter and more humid air northward into the Central and Eastern States. Monday won't be "dangerously hot" yet with highs around 90°F and dewpoints only in the low-to-mid 60s, but the same cannot be said from Tuesday into the following weekend. A sprawling, Jet Stream ridge, or "heat dome," will expand, amplify, and engulf a huge portion of the United States by the middle of the week and be in no hurry to disappear. It often takes several days and multiple disturbances or cold fronts along the ridge's periphery to cause it to weaken and ultimately break down. This case will be no exception, so I am currently unable to pinpoint which day the heatwave will actually end. Not that anyone wants to hear this, but it most likely won't be until sometime during the week of June 24th. Anyhow, the large-scale subsidence, or sinking motion, beneath the Jet Stream ridge will cause the air to compress, dry out, and heat up at a very fast rate (see below). Our recent stretch of dry weather will only make matters worse and support higher afternoon temperatures. Evaporation is a cooling process, so high temperatures are often tempered by a few degrees if the ground is abnormally wet. When the ground is dry, the opposite holds true. Without much moisture to evaporate from the ground, there is no process by which to slow the rate of warming, and temperatures often reach or exceed expectations. Thus, I would be foolish to rule out 100-degree temperatures at this distance. The last 100-degree day at Millersville occurred on July 7, 2012, so the argument could be made that we are long overdue.. I'll provide day-to-day details of expected high temperatures, dewpoints, and heat indices on Monday and Tuesday. However, like I mentioned above, high temperatures will likely be in the mid 90s from Tuesday-Thursday and could peak in the upper 90s or low 100s from Friday-Sunday. Dewpoints during the heatwave should primarily be in the 60s but may climb into the low 70s on a couple of days. With the ridge in control, shower and thunderstorm chances will essentially be non-existent, and clouds may even be hard to come by. So yes, "scorching sunshine" will only add to the misery. There won't be much relief from the heat at night, either. With dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, overnight lows will only bottom out around 70°F and could hold in the mid-to-upper 70s in urban areas, especially from Thursday night-Saturday night. During the day, heat indices should be around the century mark from Tuesday-Thursday and could very well reach 110°F at some point next weekend. With the excruciating heat and humidity right around the corner, it will be essentially to practice heat safety tips and know the warning signs of heat exhaustion and heatstroke. In order to mitigate the risk of developing heat-related illnesses, avoid alcohol and drink plenty of water and other beverages high in electrolytes. Wear loose-fitting/light-colored clothing and take frequent breaks from the heat in the shade or, preferably, an air-conditioned room or building. As far as diet, avoid salty/dehydrating foods. Instead, eat plenty of fruits and vegetables high in electrolytes, minerals, and nutrients. Applying a cool compress around your neck at times can also help your body from overheating. Never leave pets or children unattended in a vehicle! On a 90-degree day, the internal temperature of a car can reach 120°F in just 20 minutes and 135°F in an hour. Imagine how fast that would occur on a 100-degree day.. The impending heatwave should be taken seriously and is not a joking matter. Locally, it may end up being the longest and most extreme since July 2011. There have been substantial heatwaves in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic States over the past decade, but none of them have had the potential of the upcoming one. See the graphic below for warning signs, symptoms, and appropriate responses to heat exhaustion and heatstroke. I'll leave it at that for now. Enjoy Father's Day Weekend, but make sure you're able to be in a place that has air conditioning next week. It will be a necessity.. -- Elliott 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 99 with a 72 dewpoint Friday will not be pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 MU with a lengthy write up yesterday on the upcoming week - uh, yeah...if I'm reading correctly he's on board with hot weather: Unfortunately, a heatwave of epic proportions will overtake the Central and Eastern States next week. Millions of residents across more than a dozen states will bake under oppressive heat and humidity for the entire week and into the following weekend. Temperatures will soar to record-challenging or record-breaking levels in multiple states on at least 2 or 3 days during the long-duration sizzlefest (see below). This will end up being the first official heatwave.. defined as 3 or more consecutive days with highs temperatures of 90°F or higher.. of 2024 and could exceed the last one (Labor Day Weekend 2023) in terms of humidity and heat indices. The potential exists for several days in a row with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and heat indices of 100°F or more across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. It's not out of the question that high temperatures themselves reach 100-102°F in spots next Friday-Sunday. The aforementioned high pressure system will shift into the western Atlantic by Monday and essentially "camp out" there for the rest of the week. On its backside, broad, southwesterly flow originating from the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will draw progressively hotter and more humid air northward into the Central and Eastern States. Monday won't be "dangerously hot" yet with highs around 90°F and dewpoints only in the low-to-mid 60s, but the same cannot be said from Tuesday into the following weekend. A sprawling, Jet Stream ridge, or "heat dome," will expand, amplify, and engulf a huge portion of the United States by the middle of the week and be in no hurry to disappear. It often takes several days and multiple disturbances or cold fronts along the ridge's periphery to cause it to weaken and ultimately break down. This case will be no exception, so I am currently unable to pinpoint which day the heatwave will actually end. Not that anyone wants to hear this, but it most likely won't be until sometime during the week of June 24th. Anyhow, the large-scale subsidence, or sinking motion, beneath the Jet Stream ridge will cause the air to compress, dry out, and heat up at a very fast rate (see below). Our recent stretch of dry weather will only make matters worse and support higher afternoon temperatures. Evaporation is a cooling process, so high temperatures are often tempered by a few degrees if the ground is abnormally wet. When the ground is dry, the opposite holds true. Without much moisture to evaporate from the ground, there is no process by which to slow the rate of warming, and temperatures often reach or exceed expectations. Thus, I would be foolish to rule out 100-degree temperatures at this distance. The last 100-degree day at Millersville occurred on July 7, 2012, so the argument could be made that we are long overdue.. I'll provide day-to-day details of expected high temperatures, dewpoints, and heat indices on Monday and Tuesday. However, like I mentioned above, high temperatures will likely be in the mid 90s from Tuesday-Thursday and could peak in the upper 90s or low 100s from Friday-Sunday. Dewpoints during the heatwave should primarily be in the 60s but may climb into the low 70s on a couple of days. With the ridge in control, shower and thunderstorm chances will essentially be non-existent, and clouds may even be hard to come by. So yes, "scorching sunshine" will only add to the misery. There won't be much relief from the heat at night, either. With dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, overnight lows will only bottom out around 70°F and could hold in the mid-to-upper 70s in urban areas, especially from Thursday night-Saturday night. During the day, heat indices should be around the century mark from Tuesday-Thursday and could very well reach 110°F at some point next weekend. With the excruciating heat and humidity right around the corner, it will be essentially to practice heat safety tips and know the warning signs of heat exhaustion and heatstroke. In order to mitigate the risk of developing heat-related illnesses, avoid alcohol and drink plenty of water and other beverages high in electrolytes. Wear loose-fitting/light-colored clothing and take frequent breaks from the heat in the shade or, preferably, an air-conditioned room or building. As far as diet, avoid salty/dehydrating foods. Instead, eat plenty of fruits and vegetables high in electrolytes, minerals, and nutrients. Applying a cool compress around your neck at times can also help your body from overheating. Never leave pets or children unattended in a vehicle! On a 90-degree day, the internal temperature of a car can reach 120°F in just 20 minutes and 135°F in an hour. Imagine how fast that would occur on a 100-degree day.. The impending heatwave should be taken seriously and is not a joking matter. Locally, it may end up being the longest and most extreme since July 2011. There have been substantial heatwaves in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic States over the past decade, but none of them have had the potential of the upcoming one. See the graphic below for warning signs, symptoms, and appropriate responses to heat exhaustion and heatstroke. I'll leave it at that for now. Enjoy Father's Day Weekend, but make sure you're able to be in a place that has air conditioning next week. It will be a necessity.. -- Elliott For once vacationing in the deep south of Savannah Georgia and Hilton Head South Carolina is going to pay off for me and June. I leave Thursday morning and highs don't look to reach 90 the entire time I'm down there what's 40 to 50% chance of thunderstorms every afternoon. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 99 with a 72 dewpoint Friday will not be pleasant. I remember the hell of 2012Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Late nooners. 77 in Dillsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 That heat writeup sounds pretty ominous. Saturday at Knoebels (wife's company picnic) could be quite the experience. I can imagine some hellish wait times to get on the water rides, and the pool will be absolutely jammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 On my phone so quick scan, but looks like the next day GFS is over 90 at 18z for MDT is next Sat. Thur looked 85-86 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 That heat writeup sounds pretty ominous. Saturday at Knoebels (wife's company picnic) could be quite the experience. I can imagine some hellish wait times to get on the water rides, and the pool will be absolutely jammed.It would cost you at least $500 for me to appear outside that day. If my choice was go or quit I would quit and file an employment law lawsuit Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 On my phone so quick scan, but looks like the next day GFS is over 90 at 18z for MDT is next Sat. Thur looked 85-86 I think.I think gfs might have to go to time out and be reprogram because of a major error in physics but we shall seeSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 If the high temperature at Harrisburg is below 90 for Monday through Thursday I will reconsider my position on the GFS needing to be reprogrammed because of its lack of physics intuitionSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 From CTP discussion: uh, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 From CTP discussion: uh, what?I love you analogy. It wouldn't shock me at all to have a major storm like 5:00 a.m. one of these days cuz that's usually what happens withthese heat domes. At least in the past. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 50 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I think gfs might have to go to time out and be reprogram because of a major error in physics but we shall see Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It was the leader (from what I saw) in flagging the heat wave this past week as being false. It was too low today though. It was 82-83 when I left Dillsburg which is 3-4 higher than the gfs had it for today. Of course using the gfs for temps 24 hours out is not the best plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I love you analogy. It wouldn't shock me at all to have a major storm like 5:00 a.m. one of these days cuz that's usually what happens withthese heat domes. At least in the past. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk When it really comes down to it, I agree. It would be foolish to expect temps to be maxed out during a heat wave without any convection or clouds to gum up the works, which it seems the models have picked up on, even if NWS is a little hesitant to buy into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 It was the leader (from what I saw) in flagging the heat wave this past week as being false. It was too low today though. It was 82-83 when I left Dillsburg which is 3-4 higher than the gfs had it for today. Of course using the gfs for temps 24 hours out is not the best plan.If the GFS wins this wee and the national weather service ends up with egg on their face it's going to cause an issue where no one's going to believe anything from the national weather service for many many years soSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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