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15 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Looks like the heaviest is staying to the west like mentioned last night.

IMG_0806.jpeg

Generally speaking, modeling did a lousy job with long and medium range forecasts, with only some short term forecasts being acceptable all things considered.

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2024

TORNADO WATCH 616 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-011-015-017-025-029-037-041-043-045-067-069-071-075-077-
079-081-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-107-109-113-115-119-127-
131-133-091800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0616.240809T1015Z-240809T1800Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BERKS               BRADFORD
BUCKS                CARBON              CHESTER
COLUMBIA             CUMBERLAND          DAUPHIN
DELAWARE             JUNIATA             LACKAWANNA
LANCASTER            LEBANON             LEHIGH
LUZERNE              LYCOMING            MONROE
MONTGOMERY           MONTOUR             NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND       PERRY               PHILADELPHIA
PIKE                 SCHUYLKILL          SNYDER
SULLIVAN             SUSQUEHANNA         UNION
WAYNE                WYOMING             YORK
$$
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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

It is pouring.  Looking at around 2.5" event total now.    It did not rain at all after last evening...until now. 

You must live in some restricted rain zone controlled by DT or the government. Your only allowed to get precipitation when they say. I thought you'd have more till morning.

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Just now, mahantango#1 said:

You must live in some restricted rain zone controlled by DT or the government. Your only allowed to get precipitation when they say. I thought you'd have more till morning.

I had 1.8" last evening and it had not rained much until this AM.   The storm went WAAAAAAAY west of me....dry slotted in some manner.   I am fine with what I have.  I scored big in the pregame with the 1.8". 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I had 1.8" last evening and it had not rained much until this AM.   The storm went WAAAAAAAY west of me....dry slotted in some manner.   I am fine with what I have.  I scored big in the pregame with the 1.8". 

Funny. Models are always too far east or south with east coast storms on the long and medium range (even into the short range sometimes), especially in Niñas. Happens year round, but we usually only notice it in the winter.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I had 1.8" last evening and it had not rained much until this AM.   The storm went WAAAAAAAY west of me....dry slotted in some manner.   I am fine with what I have.  I scored big in the pregame with the 1.8". 

It's good to have you back in the game!

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Highest temp on latest GFS run, at MDT for 18Z, is 82.  Almost all days below 80.    Trough after trough....and this which continues to move west in its trajectory

 

 

Capture.JPG

The WAR (which seems to be a constant nowadays) says west.

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So far we've had 1.01" since midnight, and .86" yesterday for a two day tally of 1.87" which comes out to 2.54" since Tuesday. 

In a lull right now, but it's breezy and tropical feeling this morning. Not sure if we see any more "feeder bands" or not this morning and when/if some of that main slug out west comes through.

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Up to almost 3" now but in a lull....heaviest stuff has passed.  Some areas of the West Shore banging over 4" today.  JNS may be getting water out of his basement. 
 
image.png.c1de66371ec51febfe7d595d5da23da3.png
 
2.86" since midnight with this big batch still to go.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Up to almost 3" now but in a lull....heaviest stuff has passed.  Some areas of the West Shore banging over 4" today.  JNS may be getting water out of his basement. 

 

image.png.c1de66371ec51febfe7d595d5da23da3.png

 

Look at that cutoff at the Susquehanna.

I'm sitting at .62" since Wednesday. 2.43" for the week.

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