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12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Bubbler, radar looks good over your way now with these appetizers. 

Yes, it has been a soaker.  Counting last evening there has been around 1.2".   Ninja grass watering may be done for the year if the GFS/GEFS has any clue about much of the rest of August.   A lot of rain and little in the way of heat.   Plants will still need watered.  The immediate 3-5 days after this storm still look dry. 

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, it has been a soaker.  Counting last evening there has been around 1.2".   Ninja watering may be done for the year if the GFS/GEFS has any clue about much of the rest of August.   A lot of rain and little in the way of heat. 

.02 here yesterday. Glad your getting rain. I hope it's not too late to cancel your Voyager delivery of water.

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Looks like Marysville farms are still eligible to claim drought relief and some info on warm anomalies

image.thumb.png.144d6bf8250eadce5204e97180861b66.png

Northeast Drought Summary

On this week’s map, some minor changes were made in the region with improvements in isolated areas of Maine, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware, while minor deterioration in drought-related conditions occurred in West Virginia. For the week, areas of the region observed light-to-moderate precipitation accumulations ranging from 1 to 4+ inches with the heaviest accumulations observed in central and eastern Pennsylvania. Average temperatures for the week were 2 to 8+ degrees F above normal across the region with the greatest departures observed across the New England states as well as New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania. According to NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), the December 2023-June 2024 period (July 2024 data not available) was the warmest (+6.1 degrees F anomaly) on record for the Northeast Climate Region. In terms of precipitation rankings for the contemporaneous period, the region experienced its 3rd wettest (+6.5-inch anomaly) on record.

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

He denied me water per his post.  He was hoarding and said something about "us skooks need to take care of skooks first"

I'm disappointed. I was looking forward to Voyager doing a video of him opening that back valve on the tanker and emptying the entire tanker of 8000 gallons of water in your yard.

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16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

In terms of max totals, if I could be anywhere for this storm, put me on top of Seven Mountains outside of State College. 

I used to spend many parts of the summer at the scout camp there. Does very well for rain up there. 

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Just now, Atomixwx said:

That tells me to expect very little at my house but just 8 miles away in Philipsburg, a drencher. 

The Euro has never been the same since the 2017 alleged "update", so I'm not sure how much it can be trusted.

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Some maps of note this morning.

image.gif.03fdc2da58268cabbc525ed5579963c7.gif

Updated flash flood guidance (6hr)

image.thumb.png.44fbed755b9602eb925ff715a798a49c.png

 

Updated Susquehanna Basin Headwater guidance

image.thumb.png.60e32a638a8c43f084b073f946b3d3e8.png

 

Of particular concern locally I have is with the Little Juniata and Frankstown branches of the Juniata River. These tributaries have some of the most attainable numbers for moderate and major flood categories and they’re colocated with the modeled passage of the remnant core of Debby, where these 3-5” totals are most likely (and likely most of that coming within 6-8hrs). I’ve personally had only 2.3” of rain in the last 30 days, with only 1.25” falling in the last 2 weeks… but 5-10 miles from here has been a completely different story with last Saturday and Tuesday having storms that have dumped 2-3” both times in the areas that cover a good part of the basins of those two tributaries. 

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50 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I'm disappointed. I was looking forward to Voyager doing a video of him opening that back valve on the tanker and emptying the entire tanker of 8000 gallons of water in your yard.

You laugh. Sometimes we actually do open up and dump it. Mostly is happens if, after testing, there's too much turbidity which sometimes occurs right after the spring filters are changed, or we get a heavy rain. With our overweight 8,000 gallon tankers, the state only gives us a permit to run from spring to plant. We can't legally take it back to the yard if something goes wrong.

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This post is from yesterday, so the reference for tomorrow is actually today. Impressive streak ongoing and if it doesn't end today there's no end in sight:

In other news, the mercury just cracked the 80-degree mark this afternoon at @millersvilleu. Not since June 11th has the high temp been below 80F. Unexpected, but the streak continues! It should finally end tomorrow, but that’s not a guarantee.

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I’m kind of surprised SPC doesn’t have much in their outlook tomorrow for severe in Eastern PA. I feel like there’s a half decent severe threat (of the slight risk variety at least) for winds and brief spin ups. 

Using the new 12z HRRR here centered on 16z (noon) tomorrow, which I’ve noticed has really sped this event up. 

Simulated composite Radar:

image.thumb.png.9a3505b5567803d939c09c64da63cad6.png

 

Screaming winds aloft at 850mb

image.thumb.png.dd472f0d32a2d537d6320aec8e83ff93.png

 

Very high helicity/shear, as per usual on the eastern side of a landfalling tropical system

image.thumb.png.3c530c81d5c7fd79372456c0d93f25a2.png

Modest but not excessive CAPE:

image.thumb.png.c844a7ceaf12a7bef4c819f530d66789.png

 

Significant Tor parameter, which incorporates the shear and the CAPE

image.thumb.png.c0ef5248b4e307301b35d61e17794302.png

So my interpretation is that the potential is there for severe issues for sure, especially if the HRRR take on having more of a distinct band/squall line is correct. CAPE is limiting factor on actually having cells capable of “significant tornadoes” but the parameter is spiked because of the very high low level shear/helicity. So I feel anything embedded in a band (or bands) will have the capability to bring some of the high winds aloft and potentially spin up some brief tornadoes. Didn’t include it with all the maps but even the 925mb wind speeds are modeled to be 50+ knots in the Sus Valley late morning tomorrow. Wouldn’t take much to mix it down. 

As mentioned before the HRRR looks faster with the progression than say the NAM. Could be too fast but it is a thing with TC remnants to move along once they’re interacting with a frontal boundary. That could be a limiting factor capping high end rain totals where the remnant core passes thru. 

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8 minutes ago, canderson said:

I should have been more specific when I said I didn't see a severe threat - I believed it was going to be E of any of. But the maps MAG posted show it W of what I thought. 

It’ll depend on the track of the remnant low. If it follows what the NHC has for its track via the 8am advisory then best severe parameters likely would be just east of the Sus Valley. Most modelling I’ve looked at so far this morning though, global and high res, seem to have the remnant low of Debby tracking thru true central or even west central PA. 

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This post is from yesterday, so the reference for tomorrow is actually today. Impressive streak ongoing and if it doesn't end today there's no end in sight:
In other news, the mercury just cracked the 80-degree mark this afternoon at @millersvilleu. Not since June 11th has the high temp been below 80F. Unexpected, but the streak continues! It should finally end tomorrow, but that’s not a guarantee.

It’s ending today


.
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2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


It’s ending today


.

MU just mentioned that, as well as this:

@MUweather

A #FloodWatch is in effect for central & northern PA from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM Saturday. Perry, Cumberland & Franklin Co's are included in the watch, & I wouldn't be surprised to see it expanded into York/Adams/Dauphin Co's. #Debby's track has ticked back slightly farther east..

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU just mentioned that, as well as this:

@MUweather

A #FloodWatch is in effect for central & northern PA from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM Saturday. Perry, Cumberland & Franklin Co's are included in the watch, & I wouldn't be surprised to see it expanded into York/Adams/Dauphin Co's. #Debby's track has ticked back slightly farther east..

Tick it east some more please. 

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