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38 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Late night MCS?KPBZ - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 5_03 PM.jpg

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The atmosphere is basically cooked now with these training storms and BL overturning. So that will be running into a stable environment. It's got some strong effective bulk shear and helicity to work with, which may help with some organization, but I don't think that'll be able to overcome the stability. Lots more rain from it though across the LSV. Maybe some gusty 50mph winds with any outflow.

With the ridge in the Atlantic and trough in the north central plains trending Debby to stay further west once it makes it's second landfall, I could see the CPA (along with CNY) taking the brunt of the rain. WPC has been shifting things slowly further west as well. This rain today certainly will not help with flooding concerns.

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9 hours ago, Voyager said:

From Walt Drag in the NYC forum. If any of this even comes true, and I'm not sure of the timing of Debby's remnants, it's going to be ugly for some folks. The fact that Drag kind of agrees with this scenario (I highly respect his met skills) speaks volumes to the potential magnitude of this event...

 

fwiw... we already know of many 2-2.75" amounts in central-north central NJ, in the early part of this event.  Am still looking for 3+" reports prior to 6P, since digital radar amounts have exceeded that in a few spots in the I80-I195 band.

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fwiw... we already know of many 2-2.75" amounts in central-north central NJ, in the early part of this event.  Am still looking for 3+" reports prior to 6P, since digital radar amounts have exceeded that in a few spots in the I80-I195 band.

4.07” 4 miles SW of Lancaster, PA.


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Radar looks like I’m in deep red stuff for at least two hours as it’s moving almost due E now. 
I doubt 2 hours but the longer those yellows and reds stay on us the better. We can handle the pounding easily

It does seem like we missed the heaviest part that went to our south. I'm only at 0.40" so I may not even make it to an inch with this batch

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KCXY is going to triple me at least. They are at 1.18" and rising. I'm at 0.45" and probably will end this round at 0.50".

That front just south of me is the focal point. Hopefully it comes back north some.

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