Central Pa. Summer 2024

[TheClimateChanger]

On 8/3/2024 at 2:40 PM, Jns2183 said:

I also found this data shocking from millersville University. I'm sure our climate friend will tell us how their data is all wrong somehow

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Hmmm? Doesn't strike me as super hot compared to recent decades. There were some warm years in the mid to late 1930s, but nothing like recent years.

1920-1939

2000-2024

And if you're really curious. The historic data [pre-1968] comes from the cooperative weather observation at the Lancaster City WWTP, not at Millersville University at all. It obviously wouldn't benefit from the pristine siting and monitoring of MU's meterology department, and isn't directly comparable. Moreover, the WWTP site is about 250' versus 380' at MU. And the extreme thermometers were reset at 5 pm daily in the historic observations, versus midnight to midnight at MU.

Factoring these in, the change in elevation would tend to make Lancaster about 0.4-0.5F warmer than Millersville [average drop is about 4F / 1,000 feet]. The TOBs bias adds about 1F to the reported mean temperature - that is, resetting the thermometer at 5 pm versus midnight adds about 1F to the temperature as a result of the 5 pm temperature being warmer than the actual high the following day [but attributed as the high for that day] and the loss of midnight low temperatures, which happen fairly frequently in the summertime. Despite these warming advantages, all recent years at Millersville are warmer than the historic observations at Lancaster. 

 

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Hmmm? Doesn't strike me as super hot compared to recent decades. There were some warm years in the mid to late 1930s, but nothing like recent years.

1920-1939

2000-2024

And if you're really curious. The historic data [pre-1968] comes from the cooperative weather observation at the Lancaster City WWTP, not at Millersville University at all. It obviously wouldn't benefit from the pristine siting and monitoring of MU's meterology department, and isn't directly comparable. Moreover, the WWTP site is about 250' versus 380' at MU. And the extreme thermometers were reset at 5 pm daily in the historic observations, versus midnight to midnight at MU.

Factoring these in, the change in elevation would tend to make Lancaster about 0.4-0.5F warmer than Millersville [average drop is about 4F / 1,000 feet]. The TOBs bias adds about 1F to the reported mean temperature - that is, resetting the thermometer at 5 pm versus midnight adds about 1F to the temperature as a result of the 5 pm temperature being warmer than the actual high the following day [but attributed as the high for that day] and the loss of midnight low temperatures, which happen fairly frequently in the summertime. Despite these warming advantages, all recent years at Millersville are warmer than the historic observations at Lancaster. 

 

 

 

Here is 1930. Let's just say I'm a little skeptical of this temperature distribution. But man, 50s for a mean low in July isn't too shabby. You wouldn't need air conditioning at night, because you can just open the window and use a fan. In that regard, I guess I disagree with most of you. I do not believe only high temperatures matter in judging summer warmth. In fact, I would argue low temperatures and humidity are the two most important factors when it comes to cooling demand. As a child, we didn't have air conditioning and it really wasn't needed. That's not the case anymore.

 

[WmsptWx]

As you can see on this pie chart, I have a graph. And this graph is also a Venn diagram made showing charts and graphs. 

Numbers. Decimal points. Excel spreadsheet cells. Words. 

Graphs. Pie charts. Colors. Red is warm, blue is cold. Purple is Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and surprisingly... Georgia. 

Diagrams. Numbers. Words. 

[Jns2183]

i;m not sure. My family we talk about it all the time. Though it screwed up our vacation, we had a great time with an experience we probably will never have. the thing that sticks with me, i was standing on the beach looking at our hotel, and all the curtains like being sucked out the windows and doors because all the glass was gone. It looked a direct hit from a missle. 

I seriously bet they got hit with a spin up that are all so common in the intense feeder bands or eye wall. It almost perfectly explains the difference in damage and the fact of the curtains were sucked out

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[Bubbler86]

GFS never gets past Southern South Carolina (on the coast) but a new wave forms up here right near KROU. 

[Jns2183]

GFS never gets past Southern South Carolina but a new wave forms up here right near KROU. 

At least we should be able to tell if the GFS is out to lunch soon

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[Jns2183]

GFS never gets past Southern South Carolina but a new wave forms up here right near KROU. 

Also we just need the moisture tapped by a wave. I think tomorrow may over preform because of that as well

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[TheClimateChanger]

54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

85 here. 

Not too surprised the "ROU" is cooler than Harrisburg International Airport. One is at ~300' on the Susquehanna River, and the other is 750-800 feet, with some residential areas on the neighboring hills at 1,000 to 1,200 feet. Not sure how much of that is attributable to an urban heat island effect. That level of elevation gain is sufficient for daytime maxima to be around 3F cooler in town, and upwards of 5F cooler in the hills, relative to the airport.

[anotherman]

[Itstrainingtime]

Hot off the presses - MU says "give me the ICON solution":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zCxeB4lslo

 

[Bubbler86]

37 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not too surprised the "ROU" is cooler than Harrisburg International Airport. One is at ~300' on the Susquehanna River, and the other is 750-800 feet, with some residential areas on the neighboring hills at 1,000 to 1,200 feet. Not sure how much of that is attributable to an urban heat island effect. That level of elevation gain is sufficient for daytime maxima to be around 3F cooler in town, and upwards of 5F cooler in the hills, relative to the airport.

And I am not really in Rou, it is just the closest town to me.  Sort of in between KROU and KPMR.    Blizz has (rightfully) stated the KROU is not a major NWS reporting station. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And I am not really in Rou, it is just the closest town to me.  Sort of in between KROU and KPMR.    Blizz has (rightfully) stated the KROU is not a major NWS reporting station. 

Just be glad that TCC came along to impart some information on the geography of your area. Obviously he would know your area better than you do. 

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Hot off the presses - MU says "give me the ICON solution":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zCxeB4lslo

 

Good video.  That is two this week with DT's video. 

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just be glad that TCC came along to impart some information on the geography of your area. Obviously he would know your area better than you do. 

Maybe he will do your locale too! 

[Bubbler86]

47 minutes ago, anotherman said:

If a Euro caves to an Icon and no one is around to hear it, does it actually make a sound?

 

 

[Jns2183]

Not too surprised the "ROU" is cooler than Harrisburg International Airport. One is at ~300' on the Susquehanna River, and the other is 750-800 feet, with some residential areas on the neighboring hills at 1,000 to 1,200 feet. Not sure how much of that is attributable to an urban heat island effect. That level of elevation gain is sufficient for daytime maxima to be around 3F cooler in town, and upwards of 5F cooler in the hills, relative to the airport.

You are not getting anywhere close to 5 unless you're in Arizona. Flight schools teach 3.5 f per 1000'. So unless you are getting inversion funk he's at most a 1.75 degree F difference with KMDT and less the more humid it is

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[Jns2183]

If a Euro caves to an Icon and no one is around to hear it, does it actually make a sound?
 
 

I'm at the Philly airport again hoping this new flight won't be cancelled like last night was after a 3 hr delay

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[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm at the Philly airport again hoping this new flight won't be cancelled like last night was after a 3 hr delay

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Probably jealous how they get 2-3X what you do for the same drink.   The HGR to Myrtle flight for today was cancelled.   Hopefully Thursday is too. 

[Jns2183]

Probably jealous how they get 2-3X what you do for the same drink.   The HGR to Myrtle flight for today was cancelled.   Hopefully Thursday is too. 

Not anymore

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[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

You are not getting anywhere close to 5 unless you're in Arizona. Flight schools teach 3.5 f per 1000'. So unless you are getting inversion funk he's at most a 1.75 degree F difference with KMDT and less the more humid it is

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Near surface lapse rate is greater than open air lapse rate, due to downsloping effects. Only one is relevant to this discussion.

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

You are not getting anywhere close to 5 unless you're in Arizona. Flight schools teach 3.5 f per 1000'. So unless you are getting inversion funk he's at most a 1.75 degree F difference with KMDT and less the more humid it is

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Pick any two sites that are nearby are you'll see the actual difference is greater than 4F per 1000 feet. Here's 3.4F difference on 800' elevation gain. You say you need 1,000 feet of gain for this change. Actually, you claimed even less in a humid climate like Pennsylvania.

Cambria County Airport (2274')

Altoona Airport (1467')

[TheClimateChanger]

So yeah, I said what I said and I believe it to be accurate.

[TheClimateChanger]

Clearfield Lawrence AP (1516' elev.)

Dubois Jefferson AP (elev. 1804')

That's 1.6F difference over less than 300 feet. So my estimate is based on actual data. I guess I need to go to flight school to learn how the actual data is wrong.

[Jns2183]

Clearfield Lawrence AP (1516' elev.)

Dubois Jefferson AP (elev. 1804')

That's 1.6F difference over less than 300 feet. So my estimate is based on actual data. I guess I need to go to flight school to learn how the actual data is wrong.

I'm telling you what is literally on the damn test, haha, 2 degrees Celsius for a 1000' is the average. Whatever point you try to make with all these post your condescending arrogance makes the cause worse for it. You come in and doubt observations from the past, which is fine as many were shit. But than you use those same observations in your posts about a place having the warmest observations in 8 of last 120 years. Pick one or the other or if not at least have a journal worthy study to back you up on my your cherry picking is the be all end all of data that is at least site specific.

Further you list locations, each 35 miles apart with the higher altitude one being west of the lower altitude one in a predominantly west to east flow with at least a range peak in-between if not multiple, which you did not adjust for downslope effects on temperature on leeside of said mountains.

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[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm telling you what is literally on the damn test, haha, 2 degrees Celsius for a 1000' is the average. Whatever point you try to make with all these post your condescending arrogance makes the cause worse for it. You come in and doubt observations from the past, which is fine as many were shit. But than you use those same observations in your posts about a place having the warmest observations in 8 of last 120 years. Pick one or the other or if not at least have a journal worthy study to back you up on my your cherry picking is the be all end all of data that is at least site specific.

Further you list locations, each 35 miles apart with the higher altitude one being west of the lower altitude one in a predominantly west to east flow with at least a range peak in-between if not multiple, which you did not adjust for downslope effects on temperature on leeside of said mountains.

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And now we know how JNS responds after sitting at a KPHL bar for an hour or two.   A tiger!

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm telling you what is literally on the damn test, haha, 2 degrees Celsius for a 1000' is the average. Whatever point you try to make with all these post your condescending arrogance makes the cause worse for it. You come in and doubt observations from the past, which is fine as many were shit. But than you use those same observations in your posts about a place having the warmest observations in 8 of last 120 years. Pick one or the other or if not at least have a journal worthy study to back you up on my your cherry picking is the be all end all of data that is at least site specific.

Further you list locations, each 35 miles apart with the higher altitude one being west of the lower altitude one in a predominantly west to east flow with at least a range peak in-between if not multiple, which you did not adjust for downslope effects on temperature on leeside of said mountains.

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He doesn't understand no one cares.

[canderson]

This board needs ignore features so badly. 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, anotherman said:

What, no brown over Hershey? That can't be right.

[Jns2183]

And now we know how JNS responds after sitting at a KPHL bar for an hour or two.   A tiger!

I believe my substance was worthwhile

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[Jns2183]

What, no brown over Hershey? That can't be right.

I would do horrible things for that to be right

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