Bubbler86 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Icon has a borderline Cat 3 strafing SC and NC. As predicted, there would be extensive damage from wind and flooding. 10+ feet surges. Myrtle could be basically destroyed Sanibel style depending how extensive the wind field is. Because it is just ramping up, the Icon does not have the hurricane forces going too far inland, but the surge would from watering pushed at high tide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: .02 in the books. After the models have looked more optimistic for MYR, this Euro depiction is a vacation canceler. Allegiant will not fly down in that situation. GFS a flooder here. So, you implying some of Pa. could go from drought to flood within less than a week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: So, you implying some of Pa. could go from drought to flood within less than a week? If we got tropical influence deform bands, anyone could flood. Even KRou. But I am just regurgitating models. Anyone who says they can 100% forecast what a tropical system will do 48 hours out, much less this amount of time, is selling you a line. What is DT saying? A hurricane can turn a cold front into a Hazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 Just now, Bubbler86 said: If we got tropical influence deform bands, anyone could flood. Even Rou. But I am just regurgitating models. Anyone who says they can 100% forecast what a tropical system will do 48 hours out, much less this amount of time, is selling you a line. Anytime a tropical system is involved there is potential. Seen it too many times. And if the models are showing it a week out imo it will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If we got tropical influence deform bands, anyone could flood. Even Rou. But I am just regurgitating models. Anyone who says they can 100% forecast what a tropical system will do 48 hours out, much less this amount of time, is selling you a line. What is DT saying? A hurricane can turn a cold front into a Hazel. DT is saying whatever the Euro is saying. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: It is leaves Florida and the center stays off the coast while inching up the coast going through RI (like many of those depictions show), it will not be good for the beaches. That happened in Florida when I was down there and it changed the coastline and destroyed thousands of buildings as just a non RI Cat 1. I love the backwards moving big yellow arrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is leaves Florida and the center stays off the coast while inching up the coast going through RI (like many of those depictions show), it will not be good for the beaches. That happened in Florida when I was down there and it changed the coastline and destroyed thousands of buildings as just a non RI Cat 1. I love the backwards moving big yellow arrow! Yes a tropical storm, slow moving would do a lot of damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: Yes a tropical storm, slow moving would do a lot of damage. That is a well put together PBP (video.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Eps from yesterday keep the bulk of the precip along and east of I83 fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 .02 in the books. After the models have looked more optimistic for MYR, this Euro depiction is a vacation canceler. Allegiant will not fly down in that situation. GFS a flooder here. I'll take GFS squaredSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 .02 in the books. After the models have looked more optimistic for MYR, this Euro depiction is a vacation canceler. Allegiant will not fly down in that situation. GFS a flooder here. I know it wont happen now. that look is just so wonderfully awesomeSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Just now, Jns2183 said: I'll take GFS squared Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It may be a bit too much IMO. 2-4" would be nice. 6-10" (as depicted though probably 5-8 from the storm itself) would not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 It may be a bit too much IMO. 2-4" would be nice. 6-10" (as depicted though probably 5-8 from the storm itself) would not. I have drive my aunts car with her in it Friday from Boston to Philly. Than take Amtrak home Saturday morning. That GFS would be something else driving inSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 BWI hit 100 for the record-breaking 8th time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 BWI hit 100 for the record-breaking 8th time yesterday. Our heat is pedestrian compared to thatSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Our heat is pedestrian compared to that Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk We hit 90 and that is rounded up from what I understand re: it did not really hit 90. A cool 85 over here. BN high day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It may be a bit too much IMO. 2-4" would be nice. 6-10" (as depicted though probably 5-8 from the storm itself) would not. For some of you, 6-10 would probably be bad, but for Pillow and up through Tamaqua, it would be REALLY bad. We've had 4.20" this past week, plus whatever might come today. We're pretty saturated at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 We hit 90 and that is rounded up from what I understand re: it did not really hit 90. A cool 85 over here. BN high day. I've grappled all summer at what temperature to mentally accept a heatwave at. I wanted it to be 95. I love the number, plus it's temperature in Celsius is 35 exactly. I just have an issue thinking 94 is not hot. I can easily explain away at the 93 being just a bit above normal, but 94 is in that real grey area that's more than 5 above normal. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 I got no measurable rain yesterday - forget if I posted that. Our shoes are still soaking wet from the deluge here last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Low of 72 with .18” of rainfall. Today could potentially be the real deal for much of the forum. Could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 As has been the case much of this summer some pretty wide ranges in rainfall amounts since yesterday across the county. Some totals Nottingham 1.26" / West Grove 1.17" / Warwick Twp. 1.12" / East Nantmeal 0.95" / Atglen 0.91" / West Bradford 0.54" / Chester Springs 0.47" / Devault 0.26" / Brandywine Airport 0.16" More rain chances today and tomorrow. Monday looks sunny and likely the only day this week with a chance at a 90 degree reading in some spots. By mid week temperatures should trend to be a bit cooler than normal for early August. Chester County records for today: High 102 degrees at West Chester (2002) / Low 47 degrees Morgantown/Elverson (1959) / Rain 4.55" at West Chester (1950) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 We hit 90 and that is rounded up from what I understand re: it did not really hit 90. A cool 85 over here. BN high day. What day was your possible myrtle beach trip? It might be out of there by late next weekendSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 A tiny unexpected little shower just rolled through here. Good omen for later ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Making a run at 90 - lots of sun and 87 at noon. LeBron James has been an inspiration in these Olympic games. He's running the floor better than guys nearly half his age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 hours ago, Jns2183 said: What day was your possible myrtle beach trip? It might be out of there by late next weekend Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Thur to tue. It look ok until this am. Nooners in Hanover. Dry and 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Carlisle and boiling springs are getting absolutely demolished by intense rain with this stationary storm. It's so dark looking west Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 National Weather Service State College PA 1214 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-040200- /O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0005.240803T1614Z-240804T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lewistown, St. Marys, DuBois, Clearfield, Newport, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Renovo, Trout Run, Williamsport, Sunbury, Altoona, Philipsburg, Mifflintown, Carlisle, Lewisburg, State College, Emporium, Lebanon, Chambersburg, McConnellsburg, Lancaster, York, Huntingdon, Johnstown, Selinsgrove, Pottsville, Ridgway, Coudersport, Laporte, Harrisburg, Mount Union, Hershey, Shamokin, Gettysburg, Danville, and Lock Haven 1214 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Elk, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union and York. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - National Weather Service Meteorologists are forecasting heavy rainfall over the burn scar, which may lead to flash flooding and debris flows. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Thur to tue. It look ok until this am. Nooners in Hanover. Dry and 88.Monday through Friday I saw 6-9" for them Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Carlisle and boiling springs are getting absolutely demolished by intense rain with this stationary storm. It's so dark looking west Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yeah these storms look really impressive for this early and like you said aren’t budging. A flash flood warning for central Cumberland Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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