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7 minutes ago, paweather said:

Throwing in the white flag Yankees and the entire AL can and will beat the Phillies. It was fun! 

There we go...spoken like a true Philadelphia sports fan! 

I was at the game this past Friday night, Harper was getting booed like crazy. 

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Throwing in the white flag Yankees and the entire AL can and will beat the Phillies. It was fun! 
Phillies feasted on a laughably weak schedule and avoided injury for the better part of the season meanwhile down south their division counterparts have basically experienced a weekly plane crash while playing a much more difficult schedule. And now they're dealing with injuries at the same time as an uptick in difficulty.

Meanwhile the Mets have been the NL's best team since sometime in June.

The Phillies will quite probably be able to coast to a division crown, but they're going to need to be more convincing than 2-4 against the Braves in season to have anyone threatened. Especially the Dodgers.

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1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

Phillies feasted on a laughably weak schedule and avoided injury for the better part of the season meanwhile down south their division counterparts have basically experienced a weekly plane crash while playing a much more difficult schedule. And now they're dealing with injuries at the same time as an uptick in difficulty.

Meanwhile the Mets have been the NL's best team since sometime in June.

The Phillies will quite probably be able to coast to a division crown, but they're going to need to be more convincing than 2-4 against the Braves in season to have anyone threatened. Especially the Dodgers.

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Agree with everything you said - and the Mets might be the biggest threat in the NL. If Diaz returns to form...look out. 

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Agree with everything you said - and the Mets might be the biggest threat in the NL. If Diaz returns to form...look out. 
I think the NL is up for grabs this season. The Dodgers just upgraded like crazy but I don't think they have the DNA needed to carry it through as evidenced by close to a decade of bottling it, Mickey Mouse season notwithstanding. The Mets are all-in on a shock rebuilding year, the Phillies have been the top of the chain all season but their flaws may be exposed, the NL Central is, well, the NL Central, and the Braves have been rolling out an AAAA lineup since May and the MLB caliber players they have, Ozuna aside, are playing like minor leaguers. I think anybody within striking distance of the playoffs could win the pennant this year. But a few moves that transpired yesterday bring some pause to my thoughts on that...

There's an honest to god legitimate threat from the unlikeliest of places: Pittsburgh. They have a very, very good starting rotation. Their bullpen is more than passable and in picking up Bryan de la Cruz and IKF yesterday, they now have the bats needed to do some damage.

If they take the leash off of Skenes and he stays healthy, that division series at a best-of-five is going to hit different when it rolls into the blackout that will be PNC.

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3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I think the NL is up for grabs this season. The Dodgers just upgraded like crazy but I don't think they have the DNA needed to carry it through as evidenced by close to a decade of bottling it, Mickey Mouse season notwithstanding. The Mets are all-in on a shock rebuilding year, the Phillies have been the top of the chain all season but their flaws may be exposed, the NL Central is, well, the NL Central, and the Braves have been rolling out an AAAA lineup since May and the MLB caliber players they have, Ozuna aside, are playing like minor leaguers. I think anybody within striking distance of the playoffs could win the pennant this year. But a few moves that transpired yesterday bring some pause to my thoughts on that...

There's an honest to god legitimate threat from the unlikeliest of places: Pittsburgh. They have a very, very good starting rotation. Their bullpen is more than passable and in picking up Bryan de la Cruz and IKF yesterday, they now have the bats needed to do some damage.

If they take the leash off of Skenes and he stays healthy, that division series at a best-of-five is going to hit different when it rolls into the blackout that will be PNC.

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That would obviously be great for Pittsburgh, but can you imagine Skenes taking the bump in the postseason? Man...that would put MLB in an almost "must watch" position for the first time in years. 

And yeah...I have Keller on my fantasy team. What an absolute unknown stud #2 starter. 

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In 2020 a lot of people up the hill from me, where city water stops, had to redrill wells.  
The question I have is if this dryness is part of a long cycle or a permanent shift. Looking at top years it's pretty similar to Harrisburg. Looking at whole history they are about 37.5" vs 39" per year. Looking at 2000 forward is where a difference has been. 35" vs 44.5". If anything Harrisburg has been twice as abnormally wet as Hagerstown has been abnormally dry

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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

The question I have is if this dryness is part of a long cycle or a permanent shift. Looking at top years it's pretty similar to Harrisburg. Looking at whole history they are about 37.5" vs 39" per year. Looking at 2000 forward is where a difference has been. 35" vs 44.5". If anything Harrisburg has been twice as abnormally wet as Hagerstown has been abnormally dry

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Since 2000/25 years is a pretty big sample size.  I would say that is CC or other environmental issue related. 

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Since 2000/25 years is a pretty big sample size.  I would say that is CC or other environmental issue related. 
From 1899 to 2000
Hgr 37.53"
KMDT 38.41'

25 years is but last week I was reading papers that were pointing out cycles that went covered 50 years

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13 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

From 1899 to 2000
Hgr 37.53"
KMDT 38.41'

25 years is but last week I was reading papers that were pointing out cycles that went covered 50 years

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And the people who told me this is drought central would of course be talking about the last few decades only. 

 

@Jns2183 the other issue is when either site moved and how often.  HGR was not around in the 1800's.   If we moved Krou 5 miles East I would have mowed a lot more the last 5 years. 

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And the people who told me this is drought central would of course be talking about the last few decades only. 
 
[mention=4667]Jns2183[/mention] the other issue is when either site moved and how often.  HGR was not around in the 1800's.   If we moved Krou 10-15 miles East I would have mowed a lot more the last 5 years. 
1899 was first year they have records at Hagerstown. That's why I limited my comparison at KMDT to 1899 to present. And right I have no idea of the past history of where the sites were. And I also suspect that you're unique location in the valley further throws a wrench into comparations. I'll have to look at the climate data depot to see if there are any past co-op observations from your area.

Also, it seems this summer that if you were 5-10 miles west, closer to Waynesboro you would have a lot more rain

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3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

1899 was first year they have records at Hagerstown. That's why I limited my comparison at KMDT to 1899 to present. And right I have no idea of the past history of where the sites were. And I also suspect that you're unique location in the valley further throws a wrench into comparations. I'll have to look at the climate data depot to see if there are any past co-op observations from your area.

Also, it seems this summer that if you were 5-10 miles west, closer to Waynesboro you would have a lot more rain

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Yes, good memory.  Just west of Waynesboro has scored this summer but that has not been a constant over the last few years...whereas the motion of rising air then descending air has dumped on the Eastern Side of the mountain I am on.    I am not in the valley.  I am about 1/5-1/6 of the way up the mountain.   It rises fast if I take a left out my road.   I am about 300' higher than Waynesboro. 

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Yes, good memory.  Just west of Waynesboro has scored this summer but that has not been a constant over the last few years...whereas the motion of rising air then descending air has dumped on the Eastern Side of the mountain I am on. 
Usually in locations with a mostly west component to their wind, the western slopes do a lot better than east facing slopes. Are you on the west facing slope?

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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

Usually in locations with a mostly west component to their wind, the western slopes do a lot better than east facing slopes. Are you on the west facing slope?

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Yes.  The problem is just 10-15 miles to my west is another mountainous area, so storms roll over McConnellsburg and down the mountain into Greencastle and dump sometimes....then disappear mostly before they get here.   I do better if the moisture is coming from the SW vs. the W. 

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I looked at wunderground station in Waynesboro 24.18"
Fairfield 33.59"

So it seems the issue is as microscale as it can get down there. If it was a climate issue I think you would see amounts depressed region wide

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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I looked at wunderground station in Waynesboro 24.18"
Fairfield 33.59"

So it seems the issue is as microscale as it can get down there. If it was a climate issue I think you would see amounts depressed region wide

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I agree that my location is Microscale if you compare 10 miles East of here but the "Great Valley" area in general is not.    HGR and the WV/W Virgina areas in drought face similar situations. 

image.png.48230753b8713411449c8ac5f85618e8.png

 

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I agree that my location is Microscale if you compare 10 miles East of here but the "Great Valley" area in general is not.    HGR and the WV/W Virgina areas in drought face similar situations. 
image.png.48230753b8713411449c8ac5f85618e8.png
 
I agree, I was just surprised to see Waynesboro and Fairfield crushing it this year

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Well I am near 22" so I am no where near as bad as some other years.  But the last 2 months have not been great. 
I'm at 23.91"
KMDT 26.49" is actually highest out last 5 years and 11 highest in last 25
KCXY 24.11. Highest out of last 5, 9th highest out of last 24 years. Also they had 0.76" in July. Record for lowest ever in July and 27th lowest month out of 907 months of records. I was amazed that there were 26 lower months, let alone the fact that they were a number of 3-month periods with lower rain than that.

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7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm at 23.91"
KMDT 26.49" is actually highest out last 5 years and 11 highest in last 25
KCXY 24.11. Highest out of last 5, 9th highest out of last 24 years. Also they had 0.76" in July. Record for lowest ever in July and 27th lowest month out of 907 months of records. I was amazed that there were 26 lower months, let alone the fact that they were a number of 3-month periods with lower rain than that.

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3 months under 3/4" of really bad.  Forget grass, we are talking wells big time then. 

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