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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Is this the place to post the 18Z GFS has punted the heat wave until 8 more days out?  If not, apologies.    GFS has Rou temp in the mid to upper 60's Monday at 2PM. 

Lol, post away!

In just a few short months, I’ll be back to posting never ending snow maps!

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34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, post away!

in just a few short months, I’ll be back to posting never ending snow maps!

This is the best news of the day. I can't wait! 

I've decided that I'm creating a spreadsheet that I will share in my next installment of "A Day In The Life of Central PA". It's going to have 3 columns- the average amount of snow across the global models, how much snow I actually receive...and wait for it...how much snow falls at MDT.

I'll go out on a limb and set the over/under at 8%. Actual snow will be 8% of your snow maps. Betting opens on 10/1.

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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is the best news of the day. I can't wait! 

I've decided that I'm creating a spreadsheet that I will share in my next installment of "A Day In The Life of Central PA". It's going to have 3 columns- the average amount of snow across the global models, how much snow I actually receive...and wait for it...how much snow falls at MDT.

I'll go out on a limb and set the over/under at 8%. Actual snow will be 8% of your snow maps. Betting opens on 10/1.

Will have to pick a " period" and not add on when certain runs say snow and others do not.

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Picked up .63 rain overnight. .37 was from that nasty little thunderstorm @1045pm Weekly total rain 2.45, monthly total 4.52, yearly 29.09

Blessed with rain this month!

 

 

 

430
WWUS81 KCTP 250244
SPSCTP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1044 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

PAZ050-052-057-058-250315-
Northumberland PA-Dauphin PA-Snyder PA-Schuylkill PA-
1044 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL...
SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND...NORTH CENTRAL DAUPHIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SNYDER COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

At 1043 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Selinsgrove, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shamokin, Fairview-Ferndale, Trevorton, Marshallton, Port Trevorton,
Klingerstown, Rebuck, Leck Kill, Urban, Edgewood, Hegins, Gratz,
Freeburg, Dalmatia, Herndon, Pillow, and Pitman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 7650 4061 7695 4062 7696 4064 7694
      4064 7697 4077 7697 4084 7650
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 259DEG 24KT 4070 7685

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

$$

Bauco


 
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7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He will need separate columns for Ops & your favorite models, the ensembles, Lol!

Haha.  To clarify, I do not have an issue with ensembles unless they are used like an Op.  Using an ensemble for snow maps is like throwing 20 dice, averaging them all then pretending you only threw one die.   I will bet $100 that ITT does not post ensemble snow maps!

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2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Picked up .63 rain overnight. .37 was from that nasty little thunderstorm @1045pm Weekly total rain 2.45 monthly total 4.52 yearly 29.09

Blessed with rain this month!

 

 

 

430
WWUS81 KCTP 250244
SPSCTP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1044 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

PAZ050-052-057-058-250315-
Northumberland PA-Dauphin PA-Snyder PA-Schuylkill PA-
1044 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL...
SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND...NORTH CENTRAL DAUPHIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SNYDER COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

At 1043 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Selinsgrove, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shamokin, Fairview-Ferndale, Trevorton, Marshallton, Port Trevorton,
Klingerstown, Rebuck, Leck Kill, Urban, Edgewood, Hegins, Gratz,
Freeburg, Dalmatia, Herndon, Pillow, and Pitman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 7650 4061 7695 4062 7696 4064 7694
      4064 7697 4077 7697 4084 7650
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 259DEG 24KT 4070 7685

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

$$

Bauco


 

I saw the lightning from that storm all the way over here. Checked radar, and it looked like it was headed my way, so I put the wife's hanging plants out in the yard for a natural drink. Well, it fell apart, and we only got 0.01" out of it...lol

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5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I saw the lightning from that storm all the way over here. Checked radar, and it looked like it was headed my way, so I put the wife's hanging plants out in the yard for a natural drink. Well, it fell apart, and we only got 0.01" out of it...lol

I thought it would fall apart till it got to me. They usually do at night before the cross the river, but that was not the case last night.

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The latest PBZ AFD highlighting some of the weather items I discussed yesterday.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer and more humid on Sunday.
- A few rounds of disturbances pass to close out the weekend into
  the middle of next week.
- Moderate risk of excessive heat beginning in August.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Further modification of the airmass continues on Sunday which will
likely be the warmest day of the forecast period as probabilities
sit up to 70% for >90F in the urban areas and valleys, though upper
cloud coverage will increase from the southwest and could keep highs
a little cooler. Ensemble clusters all absorb a cutoff upper low
across the deep South back into the southwest flow aloft and show
good agreement on its track through the Ohio Valley, but differ some
on the amplification. This will return a more unsettled pattern to
close out the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week as
a few more disturbances pass through.

Thereafter, ensembles still show notably good agreement by mid week
in central CONUS ridging which would place our area in northwest
flow aloft. While these patterns tend to be dry on average, they are
also supportive of rounds of severe weather chances as we
experienced in a similar pattern last week. Machine learning does
paint a broad-brushed potential for a severe threat by mid week, but
details won`t become clear for several more days. In addition, heat
concerns return. Accordingly, CPC has issued another moderate risk
of excessive heat from August 1st through August 7th. Lastly, with
flow aloft extending downstream of the Canadian Rockies, wildfire
smoke could make its debut to the Pittsburgh region this year.
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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Haha.  To clarify, I do not have an issue with ensembles unless they are used like an Op.  Using an ensemble for snow maps is like throwing 20 dice, averaging them all then pretending you only threw one die.   I will bet Cee Dee Lamb's eventual new contract that ITT does not post a single, worthless snow map!

 

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15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The latest PBZ AFD highlighting some of the weather items I discussed yesterday.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer and more humid on Sunday.
- A few rounds of disturbances pass to close out the weekend into
  the middle of next week.
- Moderate risk of excessive heat beginning in August.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Further modification of the airmass continues on Sunday which will
likely be the warmest day of the forecast period as probabilities
sit up to 70% for >90F in the urban areas and valleys, though upper
cloud coverage will increase from the southwest and could keep highs
a little cooler. Ensemble clusters all absorb a cutoff upper low
across the deep South back into the southwest flow aloft and show
good agreement on its track through the Ohio Valley, but differ some
on the amplification. This will return a more unsettled pattern to
close out the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week as
a few more disturbances pass through.

Thereafter, ensembles still show notably good agreement by mid week
in central CONUS ridging which would place our area in northwest
flow aloft. While these patterns tend to be dry on average, they are
also supportive of rounds of severe weather chances as we
experienced in a similar pattern last week. Machine learning does
paint a broad-brushed potential for a severe threat by mid week, but
details won`t become clear for several more days. In addition, heat
concerns return. Accordingly, CPC has issued another moderate risk
of excessive heat from August 1st through August 7th. Lastly, with
flow aloft extending downstream of the Canadian Rockies, wildfire
smoke could make its debut to the Pittsburgh region this year.

A punt for over here though I know this our not our AFD.  The heat wave was supposed to be in full blaze by Monday. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

A punt for over here though I know this our not our AFD.  The heat Wave was supposed to be in full Blaze by Monday. 

70% chance of 90+ by Sunday for valleys and urban areas. The usual hot spots out your way will probably approach 95F.

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12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

70% chance of 90+ by Sunday for valleys and urban areas. The usual hot spots out your way will probably approach 95F.

Yesterday you suggested that the experts were the ones to listen to - CTP disagrees with you. 89 for Bubbler on Sunday and down to 86 on Monday. 

So...do we now ignore the experts? 

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18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

70% chance of 90+ by Sunday for valleys and urban areas. The usual hot spots out your way will probably approach 95F.

Sunday seems hot but then the temps reverse for the first few days of next week as ITT mentioned.  They could be wrong but as of this AM, the heat wave has been delayed for the LSV.   Only one 90 on the entire zone forecast. 

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