Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Had some cells trace over me to the tune of about a half an inch. Much more just to my south. Good stuff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Had some cells trace over me to the tune of about a half an inch. Much more just to my south. Good stuff. Not a drop here. Nice role reversal from last week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Getting hit with a decent cell now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Is this the place to post the 18Z GFS has punted the heat wave until 8 more days out? If not, apologies. GFS has Rou temp in the mid to upper 60's Monday at 2PM. Lol, post away! In just a few short months, I’ll be back to posting never ending snow maps! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, post away! in just a few short months, I’ll be back to posting never ending snow maps! This is the best news of the day. I can't wait! I've decided that I'm creating a spreadsheet that I will share in my next installment of "A Day In The Life of Central PA". It's going to have 3 columns- the average amount of snow across the global models, how much snow I actually receive...and wait for it...how much snow falls at MDT. I'll go out on a limb and set the over/under at 8%. Actual snow will be 8% of your snow maps. Betting opens on 10/1. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Had some cells trace over me to the tune of about a half an inch. Much more just to my south. Good stuff. Holy crap - coworker texted me that he got 3.32" outside of Conestoga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is the best news of the day. I can't wait! I've decided that I'm creating a spreadsheet that I will share in my next installment of "A Day In The Life of Central PA". It's going to have 3 columns- the average amount of snow across the global models, how much snow I actually receive...and wait for it...how much snow falls at MDT. I'll go out on a limb and set the over/under at 8%. Actual snow will be 8% of your snow maps. Betting opens on 10/1. Will have to pick a " period" and not add on when certain runs say snow and others do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Uh...CTP had me down for an 80% chance of rain tomorrow. It's now 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Will have to pick a " period" and not add on when certain runs say snow and others do not. I was speaking mostly in jest but I am in intrigued by the possibility... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was speaking mostly in jest but I am in intrigued by the possibility... Have to protect muh models. Maybe set it at 7 days and back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Holy crap - coworker texted me that he got 3.32" outside of Conestoga. I believe it. That was that cell I mentioned earlier that just wouldn’t move. Figured someone had to be getting the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Have to protect muh models. Maybe set it at 7 days and back. He will need separate columns for Ops & your favorite models, the ensembles, Lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: He will need separate columns for Ops & your favorite models, the ensembles, Lol! Lol, I’m getting excited for Winter just thinking about posting snow maps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 25 Author Share Posted July 25 Picked up .63 rain overnight. .37 was from that nasty little thunderstorm @1045pm Weekly total rain 2.45, monthly total 4.52, yearly 29.09 Blessed with rain this month! 430 WWUS81 KCTP 250244 SPSCTP Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 1044 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 PAZ050-052-057-058-250315- Northumberland PA-Dauphin PA-Snyder PA-Schuylkill PA- 1044 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL... SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND...NORTH CENTRAL DAUPHIN AND SOUTHEASTERN SNYDER COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT... At 1043 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Selinsgrove, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Shamokin, Fairview-Ferndale, Trevorton, Marshallton, Port Trevorton, Klingerstown, Rebuck, Leck Kill, Urban, Edgewood, Hegins, Gratz, Freeburg, Dalmatia, Herndon, Pillow, and Pitman. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4060 7650 4061 7695 4062 7696 4064 7694 4064 7697 4077 7697 4084 7650 TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 259DEG 24KT 4070 7685 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH $$ Bauco 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 70 on the nose as we head over to MDT to fly back home at this way too early hour. 73 in Austin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 25 Author Share Posted July 25 1 minute ago, canderson said: 70 on the nose as we head over to MDT to fly back home at this way too early hour. 73 in Austin. Safe travels! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 That storm that come through last night. The airport which is about 10 miles away picked up 1.23”. My total from the storm was .10” Some good rumbles of thunder at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: He will need separate columns for Ops & your favorite models, the ensembles, Lol! Haha. To clarify, I do not have an issue with ensembles unless they are used like an Op. Using an ensemble for snow maps is like throwing 20 dice, averaging them all then pretending you only threw one die. I will bet $100 that ITT does not post ensemble snow maps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 66 here this AM. Nice streak of nights in the 60's (and 50's soon?) going on. My zones have dropped 90's from the next week forecast except Sunday...80's next week. Canada leading the way for the NWS forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Per CTP, we may see some of the Alberta fire smoke this weekend. https://www.weather.gov/ctp/weatherstory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: Picked up .63 rain overnight. .37 was from that nasty little thunderstorm @1045pm Weekly total rain 2.45 monthly total 4.52 yearly 29.09 Blessed with rain this month! 430 WWUS81 KCTP 250244 SPSCTP Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 1044 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 PAZ050-052-057-058-250315- Northumberland PA-Dauphin PA-Snyder PA-Schuylkill PA- 1044 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL... SOUTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND...NORTH CENTRAL DAUPHIN AND SOUTHEASTERN SNYDER COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT... At 1043 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Selinsgrove, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Shamokin, Fairview-Ferndale, Trevorton, Marshallton, Port Trevorton, Klingerstown, Rebuck, Leck Kill, Urban, Edgewood, Hegins, Gratz, Freeburg, Dalmatia, Herndon, Pillow, and Pitman. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4060 7650 4061 7695 4062 7696 4064 7694 4064 7697 4077 7697 4084 7650 TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 259DEG 24KT 4070 7685 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH $$ Bauco I saw the lightning from that storm all the way over here. Checked radar, and it looked like it was headed my way, so I put the wife's hanging plants out in the yard for a natural drink. Well, it fell apart, and we only got 0.01" out of it...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 25 Author Share Posted July 25 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: I saw the lightning from that storm all the way over here. Checked radar, and it looked like it was headed my way, so I put the wife's hanging plants out in the yard for a natural drink. Well, it fell apart, and we only got 0.01" out of it...lol I thought it would fall apart till it got to me. They usually do at night before the cross the river, but that was not the case last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Low of 70 with .48” of glorious H2O. A couple of beautiful days on tap, it would seem. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 The latest PBZ AFD highlighting some of the weather items I discussed yesterday. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer and more humid on Sunday. - A few rounds of disturbances pass to close out the weekend into the middle of next week. - Moderate risk of excessive heat beginning in August. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Further modification of the airmass continues on Sunday which will likely be the warmest day of the forecast period as probabilities sit up to 70% for >90F in the urban areas and valleys, though upper cloud coverage will increase from the southwest and could keep highs a little cooler. Ensemble clusters all absorb a cutoff upper low across the deep South back into the southwest flow aloft and show good agreement on its track through the Ohio Valley, but differ some on the amplification. This will return a more unsettled pattern to close out the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week as a few more disturbances pass through. Thereafter, ensembles still show notably good agreement by mid week in central CONUS ridging which would place our area in northwest flow aloft. While these patterns tend to be dry on average, they are also supportive of rounds of severe weather chances as we experienced in a similar pattern last week. Machine learning does paint a broad-brushed potential for a severe threat by mid week, but details won`t become clear for several more days. In addition, heat concerns return. Accordingly, CPC has issued another moderate risk of excessive heat from August 1st through August 7th. Lastly, with flow aloft extending downstream of the Canadian Rockies, wildfire smoke could make its debut to the Pittsburgh region this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Haha. To clarify, I do not have an issue with ensembles unless they are used like an Op. Using an ensemble for snow maps is like throwing 20 dice, averaging them all then pretending you only threw one die. I will bet Cee Dee Lamb's eventual new contract that ITT does not post a single, worthless snow map! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: The latest PBZ AFD highlighting some of the weather items I discussed yesterday. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer and more humid on Sunday. - A few rounds of disturbances pass to close out the weekend into the middle of next week. - Moderate risk of excessive heat beginning in August. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Further modification of the airmass continues on Sunday which will likely be the warmest day of the forecast period as probabilities sit up to 70% for >90F in the urban areas and valleys, though upper cloud coverage will increase from the southwest and could keep highs a little cooler. Ensemble clusters all absorb a cutoff upper low across the deep South back into the southwest flow aloft and show good agreement on its track through the Ohio Valley, but differ some on the amplification. This will return a more unsettled pattern to close out the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week as a few more disturbances pass through. Thereafter, ensembles still show notably good agreement by mid week in central CONUS ridging which would place our area in northwest flow aloft. While these patterns tend to be dry on average, they are also supportive of rounds of severe weather chances as we experienced in a similar pattern last week. Machine learning does paint a broad-brushed potential for a severe threat by mid week, but details won`t become clear for several more days. In addition, heat concerns return. Accordingly, CPC has issued another moderate risk of excessive heat from August 1st through August 7th. Lastly, with flow aloft extending downstream of the Canadian Rockies, wildfire smoke could make its debut to the Pittsburgh region this year. A punt for over here though I know this our not our AFD. The heat wave was supposed to be in full blaze by Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: A punt for over here though I know this our not our AFD. The heat Wave was supposed to be in full Blaze by Monday. 70% chance of 90+ by Sunday for valleys and urban areas. The usual hot spots out your way will probably approach 95F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: 70% chance of 90+ by Sunday for valleys and urban areas. The usual hot spots out your way will probably approach 95F. Yesterday you suggested that the experts were the ones to listen to - CTP disagrees with you. 89 for Bubbler on Sunday and down to 86 on Monday. So...do we now ignore the experts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I’m getting excited for Winter just thinking about posting snow maps! How much for Palmyra? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: 70% chance of 90+ by Sunday for valleys and urban areas. The usual hot spots out your way will probably approach 95F. Sunday seems hot but then the temps reverse for the first few days of next week as ITT mentioned. They could be wrong but as of this AM, the heat wave has been delayed for the LSV. Only one 90 on the entire zone forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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