Central Pa. Summer 2024

[Superstorm]

0.29” from thundershower.


.

[Blizzard of 93]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
427 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

PAZ005-006-010-021900-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FR.Y.0008.240903T0400Z-240903T1300Z/
McKean-Potter-Elk-
Including the cities of Coudersport, St. Marys, Bradford, and
Ridgway
427 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s may result in frost
  formation in the deepest valleys of northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHERE...Elk, McKean, and Potter Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
427 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

PAZ005-006-010-021900-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FR.Y.0008.240903T0400Z-240903T1300Z/
McKean-Potter-Elk-
Including the cities of Coudersport, St. Marys, Bradford, and
Ridgway
427 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s may result in frost
  formation in the deepest valleys of northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHERE...Elk, McKean, and Potter Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

This is one of the earliest Frost chances that I can recall for any part of CTP in some time.

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is one of the earliest Frost chances that I can recall for any part of CTP in some time.

So, what you are telling me is that I now have to water AND cover these things?  

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is one of the earliest Frost chances that I can recall for any part of CTP in some time.

It’s not days of yore, when BFD reached a low of 25 on 8/29/86, but it’ll do.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Got back from West Virginia yesterday and was disappointed to see only .03” in the gauge. Lord knows Morgantown got a lot more than that ha. Another smooth victory brings our all-time record on our annual road trip games to 14-2. Remarkable. Low of 63 last night and I was lucky enough to catch the edge of that line of storms to the tune of .06”. Looks like a stunning week ahead. Good to be back. 

[pawatch]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
427 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

PAZ005-006-010-021900-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FR.Y.0008.240903T0400Z-240903T1300Z/
McKean-Potter-Elk-
Including the cities of Coudersport, St. Marys, Bradford, and
Ridgway
427 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s may result in frost
  formation in the deepest valleys of northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHERE...Elk, McKean, and Potter Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

It’s not days of yore, when BFD reached a low of 25 on 8/29/86, but it’ll do.

Your efforts to suggest the "days of yore" were any different falls short. The record high for the month of March at Bradford was first recorded on March 30, (you guessed it) 1986. Lol

[TimB]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Your efforts to suggest the "days of yore" were any different falls short. The record high for the month of March at Bradford was first recorded on March 30, (you guessed it) 1986. Lol

Bradford’s AVERAGE first freeze 1957-2000: 9/16

Bradford’s EARLIEST first freeze 2001-present: 9/16 (average this century is 10/2)

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, TimB said:

Bradford’s AVERAGE first freeze 1957-2000: 9/16

Bradford’s EARLIEST first freeze 2001-present: 9/16 (average this century is 10/2)

Change the discussion when your point is destroyed, ehh. Lol Lightweight. 

 

[TimB]

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Change the discussion when your point is destroyed, ehh. Lol Lightweight. 

 

It used to get into the 20s in Bradford in August (1982 and 1968 also got to 26 and 29 respectively on the same date, so it wasn’t just a one off), and now we’re marveling at mid to upper 30s in early September, which, Blizz is right, are pretty rare these days.

36 on or before September 3 has occurred in: 1958, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972 (yep, that’s 9 years out of 10), 1976, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2009.

So break that down into 3 equal periods:

1958-1979: 12 of 22 years got to 36 on or before 9/3

1980-2001: 12 of 22 years got to 36 on or before 9/3

2002-2023: 2 of 22 years (and none of the last 14) got to 36 on or before 9/3

Oh, and your March record high on 3/30/86. It was matched in 2012, a full week earlier in the spring season. (But you knew this.)

[paweather]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Change the discussion when your point is destroyed, ehh. Lol Lightweight. 

 

Don’t worry TimB will find something even though you destroyed it! He needs to get back to Pittsburgh 

[canderson]

It is niiiiiiiiiiice out this morning. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

It is niiiiiiiiiiice out this morning. 

Definitely! What a day.

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, TimB said:

It used to get into the 20s in Bradford in August (1982 and 1968 also got to 26 and 29 respectively on the same date, so it wasn’t just a one off), and now we’re marveling at mid to upper 30s in early September, which, Blizz is right, are pretty rare these days.

36 on or before September 3 has occurred in: 1958, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972 (yep, that’s 9 years out of 10), 1976, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2009.

So break that down into 3 equal periods:

1958-1979: 12 of 22 years got to 36 on or before 9/3

1980-2001: 12 of 22 years got to 36 on or before 9/3

2002-2023: 2 of 22 years (and none of the last 14) got to 36 on or before 9/3

Oh, and your March record high on 3/30/86. It was matched in 2012, a full week earlier in the spring season. (But you knew this.)

You could have saved yourself the effort and asked first if I cared, because I don't.  We all knew what you were trying to do with your original post, so don't run away from it. And yes, I  knew the March record was matched in 2012 ( which is why I  said was "first recorded") just you like you know it was also matched in 1994. So thanks for proving my original point that your effort to diminish the frost forecast is dwarfed by "days of yore" when during the same year a monthly record low was recorded, a monthly record high was recorded then matched 1 decade then 3 decades later. 

P.s. Enjoy future conversations on the subject. I'm done. 

[Superstorm]

It is niiiiiiiiiiice out this morning. 

Beautiful morning! Since I am old, I took my e-bike out for a ride.


.

[TimB]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You could have saved yourself the effort and asked first if I cared, because I don't.  We all knew what you were trying to do with your original post, so don't run away from it. And yes, I  knew the March record was matched in 2012 ( which is why I  said was "first recorded") just you like you know it was also matched in 1994. So thanks for proving my original point that your effort to diminish the frost forecast is dwarfed by "days of yore" when during the same year a monthly record low was recorded, a monthly record high was recorded then matched 1 decade then 3 decades later. 

P.s. Enjoy future conversations on the subject. I'm done. 

Oh I’m not running away from the intent of my original post, as it’s pretty obvious what I’m getting at and the data bear it out pretty well. I’m a little more concerned that you’re using one rogue day in March almost 40 years ago to refute the fact that fall comes later than it used to.

[paweather]

12 minutes ago, TimB said:

Oh I’m not running away from the intent of my original post, as it’s pretty obvious what I’m getting at and the data bear it out pretty well. I’m a little more concerned that you’re using one rogue day in March almost 40 years ago to refute the fact that fall comes later than it used to.

I hear the Pittsburgh train. All aboard! 

[ChescoWx]

A great weather week ahead as we start September. We should see high temps start below normal and moderate to near normal in the upper 70's by the end of the week. Nightime lows will reach the 40's in some areas tonight and especially tomorrow night in the lower locales of the county. Our next rain chances wait till Friday night.

Chester County records for today: High 105 degrees in Phoenixville (1954) / Low 40 degrees at Kennett Square (1909) / Rain 2.24" at Phoenixville (2006)

[ChescoWx]

Here in Chester County the Summer of 2024 was good for the 21st warmest summer across the POR - the top 25 warmest are below .

[canderson]

Early nooners:  72, pretty windy (15-20 mph with gusts to 28) and a DP of 46!

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Oh I’m not running away from the intent of my original post, as it’s pretty obvious what I’m getting at and the data bear it out pretty well. I’m a little more concerned that you’re using one rogue day in March almost 40 years ago to refute the fact that fall comes later than it used to.

You're not wrong. I have records kept from 1976 to today - there are a healthy number of lows in the 30s in my hood from late August and the following weeks. Snow fell as early as the first 2 weeks of October on 2 occasions. (Including a World Series snow in Baltimore on October 9th, 1979) Imagine it snowing in Baltimore that early today. We all freaked out when it snowed here 3 weeks later for the Halloween snow.

And it really didn't feel that special at the time.

September has definitely become more of a summer month over time, at least that's my opinion.

Now April, on the other hand...

 

 

 

 

[TimB]

42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You're not wrong. I have records kept from 1976 to today - there are a healthy number of lows in the 30s in my hood from late August and the following weeks. Snow fell as early as the first 2 weeks of October on 2 occasions. (Including a World Series snow in Baltimore on October 9th, 1979) Imagine it snowing in Baltimore that early today. We all freaked out when it snowed here 3 weeks later for the Halloween snow.

And it really didn't feel that special at the time.

September has definitely become more of a summer month over time, at least that's my opinion.

Now April, on the other hand...

 

 

 

 

That said, I can also see the other side, that PA is in a stretch of fantastic early fall weather and fretting over what is or what used to be (perceived or actual) is secondary to the absolutely perfect weather now and for the foreseeable future.

You could also make the “who the hell wants to wake up to 25 degrees in August” argument, even if it wasn’t ever that cold imby or yours.

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, TimB said:

That said, I can also see the other side, that PA is in a stretch of fantastic early fall weather and fretting over what is or what used to be (perceived or actual) is secondary to the absolutely perfect weather now and for the foreseeable future.

You could also make the “who the hell wants to wake up to 25 degrees in August” argument, even if it wasn’t ever that cold imby or yours.

Indeed, this week is shaping up to be one of the finest first weeks of September in years. It's gorgeous out there.

[mitchnick]

If we're lucky, the cold shots will keep coming thru the winter followed by warmer periods preceeded by snowfall. The last 2 Cansips runs (for the winter period) sorta show that as possible based on 5H and surface temps for December and January. Cfs2 is now saying it's possible for December too, but I  won't be shocked if I get banned for mentioning the Cfs2. 

The place to be this winter will be north methinks, at least more than usual. Thus, Bubbler and I will be frustrated a little more this year if the Cansips is closer to right than wrong. But we'll get our chances like everyone else. 

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

If we're lucky, the cold shots will keep coming thru the winter followed by warmer periods preceeded by snowfall. The last 2 Cansips runs (for the winter period) sorta show that as possible based on 5H and surface temps for December and January. Cfs2 is now saying it's possible for December too, but I  won't be shocked if I get banned for mentioning the Cfs2. 

The place to be this winter will be north methinks, at least more than usual. Thus, Bubbler and I will be frustrated a little more this year if the Cansips is closer to right than wrong. But we'll get our chances like everyone else. 

As much of modeling that I love to do, I agree with those that say everyone poo pooing on the winter is probably the best sign we have seen in a while.  Agree that LR models are not good though. 

[canderson]

76 was today’s high. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Out back grilling and the weather is perfect.  72, sun and a breeze on 9/2. Gorgeous Labor Day!

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Out back grilling and the weather is perfect.  72, sun and a breeze on 9/2. Gorgeous Labor Day!

Beautiful Labor Day indeed!

Great upcoming next few days as well.

[pawatch]

Fishing league starts today on the river. 46 degrees.