Bubbler86 Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 Pretty unanimous 2-5" across models now for much of PA. A bulk coming late Friday into Sat. This is on top of 2-4" TONIGHT on some mesos before the main area of Debbie gets here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 6, 2024 Author Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 10:17 AM, Bubbler86 said: Pretty unanimous 2-5" across models now for much of PA. A bulk coming late Friday into Sat. This is on top of 2-4" TONIGHT on some mesos before the main area of Debbie gets here. Expand If we get that I know my creek will be out over its banks. Goodbye garden. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 6, 2024 Author Share Posted August 6, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 10:23 AM, mahantango#1 said: Expand After today, the highest 18Z GFS Temp at MDT was 87 on August 22nd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 10:17 AM, Bubbler86 said: Pretty unanimous 2-5" across models now for much of PA. A bulk coming late Friday into Sat. This is on top of 2-4" TONIGHT on some mesos before the main area of Debbie gets here. Expand hopefully it just doesn't dump like Saturday. a slow soaking rain preferred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 6, 2024 Author Share Posted August 6, 2024 Good ole S&S: SS Storm Chase And Forecast Team - Mid Atlantic LLC Favorites · · LATEST EURO MODEL FLOODS THE ENTIRE EAST COAST !!!! DO YOU WANT A TRACK AND IMPACT MAP??? FLOOD WATCH LIKELY **LIST YOUR CITY OR TOWN AND WE WILL PUT IT ON TOMORROWS GRAPHIC FOR DEBBY!!!! ———————————————— DEBBY IS 4-5 DAYS AWAY BUT IS ON THE WAY!!! ***BIG ISSUES!!!! THE SLOWER SHE MOVES THE MORE RAIN WE WILL GET!!! ***KEEP AN EYE ON THIS!!!!!! DEBBY’S IS CURRENTLY NAILING THE SOUTHEAST MEANWHILE THE MID ATLANTIC HAS BIG TIME PROBLEMS ON THE WAY!!! Let’s talk about the Mid Atlantic!!!!! ***A STALLED FRONT WILL DRENCH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE DEBBY EVEN ARRIVES. OUR LOCAL AREA WILL SEE DEBBY TAKE AIM ON THE VA/MD/PA/NYC/DE/DC AREAS!!! THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR OUR AREA!!! THIS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING, TREES DOWN, FLOODING, ETC. WHEN??? TUESDAY & THURSDAY = T-Storms FRIDAY - SUNDAY = DEBBY!!!!! WE EXPECT DEBBY TO DUMP 5-10” of RAIN in much of the Mid Atlantic Area!!! That is in addition to the 2-3” from T-Storms this week. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE!!! A few T Storms will be embedded in the remnants of DEBBY and may be severe causing TORNADOES!!! **That said, We believe the biggest problem will be FLOODING. WE STRONGLY ADVISE THOSE IN VA-MD-DC-DE-PA-NY-NYC-NJ TO PAY EXTREMELY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER !!! ***THIS STORM IS NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL. EXPECT FLOODING TO BE LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY!!! STAY TUNED!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 6, 2024 Author Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 10:32 AM, Bubbler86 said: After today, the highest 18Z GFS Temp at MDT was 87 on August 22nd. Expand So summer is over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 10:33 AM, sauss06 said: hopefully it just doesn't dump like Saturday. a slow soaking rain preferred. Expand Most models have very heavy rain both tonight (especially East) and Friday later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 10:40 AM, mahantango#1 said: So summer is over? Expand The average high on Aug 22nd is 84 so 87 at 2PM is very much summer. But like I said yesterday, it is possible today is the last 90's day for some. Much rarer to get in the 90's in Sept. Then again, the models could be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 6, 2024 Author Share Posted August 6, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 10:38 AM, mahantango#1 said: Good ole S&S: SS Storm Chase And Forecast Team - Mid Atlantic LLC Favorites · · LATEST EURO MODEL FLOODS THE ENTIRE EAST COAST !!!! DO YOU WANT A TRACK AND IMPACT MAP??? FLOOD WATCH LIKELY **LIST YOUR CITY OR TOWN AND WE WILL PUT IT ON TOMORROWS GRAPHIC FOR DEBBY!!!! ———————————————— DEBBY IS 4-5 DAYS AWAY BUT IS ON THE WAY!!! ***BIG ISSUES!!!! THE SLOWER SHE MOVES THE MORE RAIN WE WILL GET!!! ***KEEP AN EYE ON THIS!!!!!! DEBBY’S IS CURRENTLY NAILING THE SOUTHEAST MEANWHILE THE MID ATLANTIC HAS BIG TIME PROBLEMS ON THE WAY!!! Let’s talk about the Mid Atlantic!!!!! ***A STALLED FRONT WILL DRENCH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE DEBBY EVEN ARRIVES. OUR LOCAL AREA WILL SEE DEBBY TAKE AIM ON THE VA/MD/PA/NYC/DE/DC AREAS!!! THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR OUR AREA!!! THIS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING, TREES DOWN, FLOODING, ETC. WHEN??? TUESDAY & THURSDAY = T-Storms FRIDAY - SUNDAY = DEBBY!!!!! WE EXPECT DEBBY TO DUMP 5-10” of RAIN in much of the Mid Atlantic Area!!! That is in addition to the 2-3” from T-Storms this week. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE!!! A few T Storms will be embedded in the remnants of DEBBY and may be severe causing TORNADOES!!! **That said, We believe the biggest problem will be FLOODING. WE STRONGLY ADVISE THOSE IN VA-MD-DC-DE-PA-NY-NYC-NJ TO PAY EXTREMELY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER !!! ***THIS STORM IS NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL. EXPECT FLOODING TO BE LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY!!! STAY TUNED!!! Expand Arizona has their own version of S&S. Those guys even go so far as to issue their own statements, watches and warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 10:57 AM, Voyager said: Arizona has their own version of S&S. Those guys even go so far as to issue their own statements, watches and warnings... Expand But do they send out such graphic alerts like Debby is nailing the whole Southeast? She must have tired of living in Dallas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 11:04 AM, Bubbler86 said: But do they send out such graphic alerts like Debby is nailing the whole Southeast? She must have tired of living in Dallas. Expand I don't remember, but they are trying to create their own NWS, along with the unnecessary hype that S&S does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 11:08 AM, Voyager said: I don't remember, but they are trying to create their own NWS, along with the unnecessary hype that S&S does. Expand I saw this acknowledging I use models for my own benefit, but with the prevalence of model sites, it portends to a lot of little NWS's around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 11:04 AM, Bubbler86 said: But do they send out such graphic alerts like Debby is nailing the whole Southeast? She must have tired of living in Dallas. Expand I just woke up, but I finally, just NOW, saw what you did there... She'd have made a great 'cane to do the Gulf up into Texas, that track to the metroplex. The innuendos would have been off the charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 6, 2024 Author Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 11:18 AM, Voyager said: I just woke up, but I finally, just NOW, saw what you did there... She'd have made a great 'cane to do the Gulf up into Texas, that track to the metroplex. The innuendos would have been off the charts. Expand It took you awhile! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 Perusing the meso's this morning, it looks like the region is going to take it on the chin tonight. Nearly all of them indicate some serious storms/rain in the 8pm to midnight hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 Low of 75. And so begins our wild week of weather. Happy tracking, all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 Strong damaging winds this evening for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 Anybody getting Hurricane Floyd vibes from 9/99? Rainfall forecasts are starting to look like it around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 From Walt Drag in the NYC forum. If any of this even comes true, and I'm not sure of the timing of Debby's remnants, it's going to be ugly for some folks. The fact that Drag kind of agrees with this scenario (I highly respect his met skills) speaks volumes to the potential magnitude of this event... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 12:01 PM, mitchnick said: Anybody getting Hurricane Floyd vibes from 9/99? Rainfall forecasts are starting to look like it around here. Expand I think if I recall correctly Floyd was more of a one day event where it appears this is maybe more a 2 part rain event, which may help it not to be a Floyd situation, side note that was the day we now (me) found out about having twins at 35 weeks. A memorable day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 11:53 AM, canderson said: Strong damaging winds this evening for many. Expand Hush you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 It feels like one of the most oppressive mornings of the year - it's 81 at 8:30am. What looked like might be a struggle to reach 3 consecutive days of 90 degree temps looks to now easily reach 7 straight days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 6, 2024 Author Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 12:19 PM, Voyager said: From Walt Drag in the NYC forum. If any of this even comes true, and I'm not sure of the timing of Debby's remnants, it's going to be ugly for some folks. The fact that Drag kind of agrees with this scenario ( highly respect his met skills) speaks volumes to the potential magnitude of this event... Expand 2011 in September had a similar set up before Lee came . We were in a drought and we had thunderstorms roll through that dumped over 2 in. of rain. WE were at Kipona in Harrisburg to see the fireworks. Well you could see the lightning in the distance that seemed to be nonstop. Harrisburg said they will start the fireworks early because some of those storms were severe with heavy rain. On the way home we got caught in those storms in Dauphin. It was very hard to see driving with the intense rain coming down. I remember the creek was very low at that time. I remember the creek was high the day after those thunderstorms rolled through then a few days later Lee rolled in...the rest is history. So I wonder if the same thing will happen again. I hope not but anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 WPC's morning map - most of the 7" contour was removed; however, the 5+" area was expanded: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/5/2024 at 11:10 PM, mitchnick said: Bubbler, I'm flipping the channel changer and just came upon Cantori live shot in Charleston, SC. Right choice. Expand I see TWC laid off Mike Seidel after over 30 years…downsizing they said. He got hired by Fox Weather. Edit: picked up .46” overnight from storms. Got the lawn mowed yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 12:33 PM, mahantango#1 said: 2011 in September had a similar set up before Lee came . We were in a drought and we had thunderstorms roll through that dumped over 2 in. of rain. WE were at Kipona in Harrisburg to see the fireworks. Well you could see the lightning in the distance that seemed to be nonstop. Harrisburg said they will start the fireworks early because some of those storms were severe with heavy rain. On the way home we got caught in those storms in Dauphin. It was very hard to see driving with the intense rain coming down. I remember the creek was very low at that time. I remember the creek was high the day after those thunderstorms rolled through then a few days later Lee rolled in...the rest is history. So I wonder if the same thing will happen again. I hope not but anything is possible. Expand Bingo. The impacts from Lee were enhanced by heavy rains that fell prior to Lee's arrival. Here's a full radar loop of the entire evolution of the frontal boundary and then Lee's arrival afterwards. That firehose that set up from VA up through the LSV and north...never saw anything like it. It just kept training. This is easily one of the most fascinating radar loops I've seen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqNzu0myoXI 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 On 8/6/2024 at 10:32 AM, Bubbler86 said: After today, the highest 18Z GFS Temp at MDT was 87 on August 22nd. Expand Don't tell TCC more graphs will be on the way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 6, 2024 Share Posted August 6, 2024 Any sun this morning should fade as the cold front approaches this PM. Rain should start by late afternoon toward early evening. Heaviest rain overnight with up to a couple inches possible in spots. The impacts of TS Debby will keep us wet for much of the rest of the work week. Chester County records for today: High 104 degrees at Sadsburyville (1918) / Record low 44 degrees at Phoenixville (1957) / Rain 2.19" at Longwood Gardens (2020) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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