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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No issues.  Like you insinuated, if we lose $400, we still saved the $1200 in condo and rental car fees in lieu of sitting in rainy Myrtle.  The rain may be gone for the second half of the trip, but they could very well have flooding for days/weeks. 

Well, if you decide to cancel, hopefully they cancel the flight.

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Just now, mahantango#1 said:

I wish the people in the southeast US the best i this storm> I seen Hilton Head Island could get 26 inches of rain. I love Hilton Head, Thats our favorite place to vacation along Coliginy Beach.

I think one models is pushing 40" which is extrmeme obviouslly but shows the risk.   Some show 16-24" way back to Charlotte. 

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66 this AM.  
 
Hydrology here looks like we could take 5-7" of rain without much of any flooding in creeks and streams.  This includes areas to our north that would flow down.   GFS shows almost no rain here so lots of options still and not filling sand bags yet. 
 
Probably cancelling Myrtle today. 
The GFS cuts it off totally and does a loop eventually bringing it up the coast in 10 days. Weird for sure

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12 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Give it a rest. It's been made very clear by multiple people that the only reason the surplus exists is because it rained the first 14/19 Saturdays and you know water evaporates, runs off, and doesn't always just sit into the land, right? 

 

You're being as annoying as the dude who posts about Du Bois, Williamsport, and Bradford. Stop. 

I'm late to the party (as usual) but you are correct. If we all got 10 inches of rain each month JFM, and then hardly got anything since then, even though everyone showed a surplus, we'd still be bone dry with low stream levels and dead yards.

I'd put more weight on a surplus if that 30+ inches was evenly distributed month to month.

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Most spots across the county have seen between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain over the last couple days. The most I found was at West Grove with 2.06" and the least at Devault with only 0.63".
Shower chances again this afternoon. Tomorrow looks like the sunniest day of the week with temps well into the 80's and maybe 90 in some lower spots in Chesco. Rain chances ramp up again on Tuesday and look to last for much of the week including some remnants from Tropical Storm Debby.
Chester County records for today: High 104 degrees at Phoenixville (1931) / Low 47 degrees at Coatesville (1951) / Rain 6.23" at West Bradford (2020) from the remnants of TS Isaias.
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So if East Nantmeal township gets 10" of rain, and subsequently has daytime highs in the 40s, and Marysville gets like, idk, a passing shower, is having five people fail to turn around and therefore drown, a tragedy or a nothingburger?

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Are there any expectations of rain from Debby?
Enough for it to approach gut wrenching fail territory if everyone from rouzerville to pillow to tamaqua to Lancaster and back across the mason Dixon line doesn't see at minimum 2" by next Sunday

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Thanks haven’t looked at the models 
It's still very much uncertain. It's just that WPC seems kinda confident and God it would be a gut punch this year. But, hey, my prediction awhile ago was no relief until we had a tropical connection which is way overdue

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3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I swear they get upset if everyday isn't 95+ and dry

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I honestly have never watched a local forecast since I bought my house in 2019. Before that in MD, it was 09/10 winter.

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13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I honestly have never watched a local forecast since I bought my house in 2019. Before that in MD, it was 09/10 winter.

Growing up, WJZ was the only of the 3 major Baltimore stations that we could get. I spent my entire childhood (into adulthood) watching Bob Turk and Marty Bass. Turk was on channel 13 forever it seemed.

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29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Growing up, WJZ was the only of the 3 major Baltimore stations that we could get. I spent my entire childhood (into adulthood) watching Bob Turk and Marty Bass. Turk was on channel 13 forever it seemed.

Yep. Channel 13 was the Accuwx station in Baltimore starting in the 70's back when Accuwx was definitely better than the NWS. But I  also watched the DC stations. Bob Ryan disliked snow, but did the best job explaining the meteorology of storm threats imho.

 

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