Bubbler86 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Love referring to this "heat map": https://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/t-anomaly.htm From 1990 to now, you can really see we have warmed dramatically. And this is an MU map so I assume the norms are not adjusted like NWS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Here is what happens with that data and TCC . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 And this is an MU map so I assume the norms are not adjusted like NWS does. What is the base years they use for averages?Do they average the whole period than go back in time? I'm curious to reasons for their choice of methodology. When you say norma are not adjusted, what are you specifically referring to?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: What is the base years they use for averages? Do they average the whole period than go back in time? I'm curious to reasons for their choice of methodology. When you say norma are not adjusted, what are you specifically referring to? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It was my understanding that they do not reset the Normals every period of years like NWS does. So, in this case the norm for X month could be a mean temp of 65 in the 1920's but is now75. I think there is a base somewhere and NWS has adjusted it to match the warmer climate. BUT these are I thinks, I do not get into that part of Met too much but sure someone else knows more. I think MJS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Here is what happens with that map and TCC .I now root for +7 degrees by 2050. The more I can do to raise it the betterSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Here I will give you an example....that data shows Dec 2022 as +1.34 while the NWS shows -1.6. Now MU and MDT do not always have the same temps but they are not THAT far apart. That data shows Dec 2015 as +12.7, NWS shows + 9.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Here I will give you an example....that data shows Dec 2022 as +1.34 while the NWS shows -1.6. Now MU and MDT do not always have the same temps but they are not THAT far apart. Doesn't NWS compute 30 year means. So our data in the 2020s is compared against data from 1/1/1990 - 12/31/2019Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Doesn't NWS compute 30 year means. So our data in the 2020s is compared against data from 1/1/1990 - 12/31/2019 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yes, that was my point. I do not think MU does that, so their departures are going to be different and often more egregious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 28 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Doesn't NWS compute 30 year means. So our data in the 2020s is compared against data from 1/1/1990 - 12/31/2019 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Close. Current base period is 1/1/1991 through 12/31/2020. Also, it’s not an exact average. Historically, it’s smoothed and normalized to prevent chaotic jumps throughout the year. And - I’ll probably get in trouble for bringing this up - but I noticed in the most recent iteration, some sites had normals higher than the means would suggest. Perhaps, the NWS was beta testing some sort of new global warming factor to see if it would produce a more equal number of warmer and cooler years by adding a certain amount to the 30-year means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 It is correct that MU compares its temps to its entire period of record, while NWS compares against the most recent 30-year period, hence MU always having higher AN departures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Speaking of AN temps, my high today was 93. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Rookie mistake: Damn near rolled my lawn mower a little bit ago. Went too far on a slope and had to pull some Evil Kineviel shit to stay upright. I believe that earns a fresh stripe of green on my New Balances. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Speaking of AN temps, my high today was 93. 88 over here. Looks like MDT may be 91. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 GFS already punted the heat wave next week. Still says Friday is not a 90 day as well. Meso's disagree about Friday and give the heat fans their 3-day heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 23 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Rookie mistake: Damn near rolled my lawn mower a little bit ago. Went too far on a slope and had to pull some Evil Kineviel shit to stay upright.I believe that earns a fresh stripe of green on my New Balances. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk And a fresh stripe of brown in your Fruit of the Looms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 And a fresh stripe of brown in your Fruit of the Looms...Sir, I stopped wearing underwear when they were called Pampers. I shit down my entire leg. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 We now have ventilated seats. Bring on the heat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 We now have ventilated seats. Bring on the heat. You are taunting weather gods. Big storms and 4 days without power at home for you Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 From AccuWeather on Twitter: Too important not to share. What I almost didn't notice is that the number of acres burned in 2024 increased so much more as a percentage than the increased percentage of total number of fires in 2024 vs 2023 or 5-year average. There is another chart at the link. It shows Top 5 biggest CA fires all happened since 2018, surprise, surprise. "Wildfires in California have burned an enormous 751,327 acres as of July 30, 2024, up 2,816% from last year." https://x.com/accuweather/status/1818709183245557827 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 66 this Am. The heat yesterday was not enough to push MDT up from their spot of 5th place for all time July Mean temp. Despite this currently being the warmest year ever at MDT (and the warmest June/July combo), they have not finished at the top on a monthly basis for either of the summer months after finishing 3rd in June. Models continue to suggest the first half of August will not end up being overly hot with persistent troughs and light ridging. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Starting the morning in State College. Sunny and 70°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 17 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Agree with everything you said - and the Mets might be the biggest threat in the NL. If Diaz returns to form...look out. I agree with both you and Atomic. Mets are the team to watch. Phillies schedule gets no easier from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 minute ago, paweather said: I agree with both you and Atomic. Mets are the team to watch. Phillies schedule gets no easier from here. Looking at the Phillies last two weeks, since that idiot said whomever would come there was going to lose, the Braves and Mets gained about three games in standings. The Braves have four games with the Marlins this weekend, who are basically a little league travel ball squad at this point and the Mets have the Angels, who basically an American Legion team, while the Phillies have to play the resurgent Mariners. Out west. The Phillies' lead in the NL East come Monday could very easily be less than one series' worth of games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Looking at the Phillies last two weeks, since that idiot said whomever would come there was going to lose, the Braves and Mets gained about three games in standings. The Braves have four games with the Marlins this weekend, who are basically a little league travel ball squad at this point and the Mets have the Angels, who basically an American Legion team, while the Phillies have to play the resurgent Mariners. Out west. The Phillies' lead in the NL East come Monday could very easily be less than one series' worth of games. Yep for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Low of 69 and .03” from yesterday morning’s showers. Dog days of summer ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Back closer to home in Philipsburg, it is 75°F and no clouds nor train cars in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 This is what my my smart ass, Yankee fan grandson texted me yesterday...lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: This is what my my smart ass, Yankee fan grandson texted me yesterday...lmao After 3 years of embarrassing endings to seasons, it takes a lot of NY "Bluster" to be cocky right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: After 3 years of embarrassing endings to seasons, it takes a lot of NY "Bluster" to be cocky right now. Yankees thread on this forum is often unreadable. People were saying stuff like "this team won't even contend for a wild card" 2 weeks ago and now they're acting like they have the best team ever assembled. Dude last night was bragging all about how they are going to run away and hide from the Orioles. Maybe they will, but it was an interesting take after the same guy proclaimed that they were done 10 days ago. LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 To some extent a lot of fan bases are that way but it seems particularly bad with Yankees fans. Maybe it's the feeling of entitlement with all of the previous success they've had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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