mahantango#1 Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No Heat Wave per DT? MU must not have seen the new weather feature, the trought, when making his forecast. Yes that trought could have huge implications! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: Yes that trought could have huge implications! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 26 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: At least the "hot" graphic is in the right place...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Sunday was the hottest day in recorded history, according to a climate tracking agency that has monitored temperatures since the mid-1900s. Around a hundred cities across the US are experiencing their hottest start to summer on record and swaths of southern Europe have been grappling with triple-digit temperatures. Global average temperatures typically peak during the Northern Hemisphere summer, between late June and early August. They also fluctuate based on natural factors: seasons, large-scale climate patterns and solar activity — and on unnatural factors: the pollution from human activity, including the burning of fossil fuels, which is chiefly driving the planet’s temperature steadily upward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Low of 72 and .04” of overnight rainfall. Looks like a solid shot at cashing in later today for some of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Low of 72 and .04” of overnight rainfall. Looks like a solid shot at cashing in later today for some of us. Reading the AFD I doubt anyone really cashes in this afternoon outside the NW mountains. This drizzle and few tenths of an inch, if any, of rain is the main show. Though I see that [mention=524]Bubbler86[/mention] got above 0.10"which is good see. Also we are now celebrating tenths of rain, haha. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Reading the AFD I doubt anyone really cashes in this afternoon outside the NW mountains. This drizzle and few tenths of an inch, if any, of rain is the main show. Though I see that @Bubbler86 got above 0.10"which is good see. Also we are know celebrating tenths of rain, haha. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk There are lots of posts about .01-.09 totals. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Rainfall overnight/early this morning netted me .02". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Rainfall overnight/early this morning netted me .02". Got me by .01 inch... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Rainfall overnight/early this morning netted me .02". I liked adding netted to the bagging, scoring, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 We picked up some light rain overnight in some spots with 0.03" in East Nantmeal. We are now almost 4 inches above normal rainfall now this year following our fairly wet stretch of weather this month. Shower chances continue today and especially tomorrow into Thursday evening before we clear up and have a great stretch of dry weather through at least next Tuesday. Chester County records for today: High 100 degrees at West Chester (2011) / Low 48 degrees at Coatesville (1985) / Rain 2.95" at Elverson/Morgantown (1969) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I liked adding netted to the bagging, scoring, etc. Well, it's been a long time since I've scored or bagged anything...so netted fits me better. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well, it's been a long time since I've scored or bagged anything...so netted fits me better. LOL Hopefully you scoop up a storm today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Incredibly muggy this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Does anyone know how the NWS determined how much rain fell at HGR the other day? I saw some discussion here. The precipitation sensor had failed and wasn't reporting any rainfall accumulation. The precipitation data was originally listed as "missing" but now they are reporting 2.93" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Does anyone know how the NWS determined how much rain fell at HGR the other day? I saw some discussion here. The precipitation sensor had failed and wasn't reporting any rainfall accumulation. The precipitation data was originally listed as "missing" but now they are reporting 2.93" fell. At least that is more in line with what happened. I do not know how they rectified it though. Nothing on their FB about it. I saw .44 originally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 2 hours ago, Jns2183 said: Reading the AFD I doubt anyone really cashes in this afternoon outside the NW mountains. This drizzle and few tenths of an inch, if any, of rain is the main show. Though I see that [mention=524]Bubbler86[/mention] got above 0.10"which is good see. Also we are now celebrating tenths of rain, haha. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It may not be widespread, but the 12z 3k NAM and the latest HRRR are still insistent on bringing some stuff through later today into the evening. As always, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 18 minutes ago, Superstorm said: . 1930's, wow. MDT had 9 during that 10 year span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 CMC-No Heat Wave though entire run. Troughty like DT wants. GFS-Warm with a few hots days and a few cooler days mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: CMC-No Heat Wave though entire run. Troughty like DT wants. GFS-Warm with a few hots days and a few cooler days mixed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 On 7/22/2024 at 8:22 PM, Jns2183 said: @TheClimateChanger I see nothing specific about 1966 being a year that should be dropped from records besid s your anger about how hot it was. If we drop that year than we needs to drop all years on top 5% Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I didn't say anything about dropping it - just said it was inflated. We can see it looks to be running 2F warmer by daytime maxima than this year: But if we compare to the same location where the observation was made. Much of that disappears, and it is less than 1F warmer at Capital City Airport. But it's also inflated compared to surrounding observations, although there are a few sites that had similarly high readings. It looks like 1966 was a drought year, perhaps locally more severe drought conditions caused the grass and sod surrounding the thermometer site to die resulting in artificially inflated readings. If we look at the Hagerstown thread, we find 1966 only in 32nd place for warmest to date, tied with 1999 & 1934. At Williamsport, 1966 is only 112th warmest [of 130 years], tied with 1983, 1945 & 1918. This also means it's tied for 16th coldest to date. At Philadelphia, 1966 is only 54th warmest to date, tied with 2023, 1955 & 1932. This means there is a wide range in characterizing the temperature of 1966 in the region. Some places record it as a cold summer (IPT), some places as a lukewarm/moderate summer (PHL, HGR), and some as a hot summer (MDT, RDG, ABE). By contrast, this scorching summer is in the Top 4 hottest to date at all six of these long-term, first order, ThreadEx sites: RDG (#1), MDT (#1), IPT (#2), HGR (#2), PHL (#3), ABE (#4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 19 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: That is the same as posting a zone to debate a model. LOL. The model says what it says. Nothing says excessive heat right now. Have not checked the Euro yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That is the same as posting a zone to debate a model. LOL. The model says what it says. Nothing says excessive heat right now. Have not checked the Euro yet. I'd probably trust the experts at CPC more than a model, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I'd probably trust the experts at CPC more than a model, no? 1) This is a weather board. He's posting weather models. As much as I'm skeptical, I would never discourage someone from posting a...you know, weather model on a...you know, weather board. 2) There have been multiple times this summer when the models have beaten forecasters. All of them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I'd probably trust the experts at CPC more than a model, no? It was not just reading 2M maps, the entire 500H is not conducive to extreme heat. There is a trough over us in early August like you know who in Richmond said there would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Anyways, shaping up to be an HISTORIC summer of epic proportions in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. CPC says more heat in the offing over the next 2 weeks and into the month of August, although there appears to be some disagreement there. Harrisburg - warmest of 137-year POR Reading - warmest of 129-year POR [by 1.2F] Bradford - warmest of 66-year POR [by 1.4F] DuBois - warmest of 59-year POR [by 1.0F] Altoona - 2nd warmest of 77-year POR Williamsport - 2nd warmest of 130-year POR Scranton/Wilkes-Barre - 3rd warmest of 124-year POR Philadelphia - 3rd warmest of 151+ year POR Allentown - Tied 4th warmest of 103 year POR Mount Pocono - 7th warmest of 115-year POR Pittsburgh - Tied 7th warmest of 150-year POR, by far hottest at the airport site Erie - The place to beat the heat in 2024. "Only" 11th warmest of 152-year POR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 The EC is sort of a tweener between the CMC and GFS as to 500H and resulting temps/precip. No extreme heat but probably about half the days in the low 90's and half in the mid to upper 80's Sunday on (MDT.) But technically no heat wave on the entire run unless you want to figure the mid 80's turning into 90 on Wed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Anyways, shaping up to be an HISTORIC summer of epic proportions in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. CPC says more heat in the offing over the next 2 weeks and into the month of August, although there appears to be some disagreement there. Harrisburg - warmest of 137-year POR Reading - warmest of 129-year POR [by 1.2F] Bradford - warmest of 66-year POR [by 1.4F] DuBois - warmest of 59-year POR [by 1.0F] Altoona - 2nd warmest of 77-year POR Williamsport - 2nd warmest of 130-year POR Scranton/Wilkes-Barre - 3rd warmest of 124-year POR Philadelphia - 3rd warmest of 151+ year POR Allentown - Tied 4th warmest of 103 year POR Mount Pocono - 7th warmest of 115-year POR Pittsburgh - Tied 7th warmest of 150-year POR, by far hottest at the airport site Erie - The place to beat the heat in 2024. "Only" 11th warmest of 152-year POR. Oh wait, I almost forgot about East Nantmeal. That's the place to beat the heat in the Commonwealth. It's even colder than the ridgetops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The EC is sort of a tweener between the CMC and GFS as to 500H and resulting temps/precip. No extreme heat but probably about half the days in the low 90's and half in the mid to upper 80's Sunday on. Extreme heat for CPC purposes is defined as a heat index roughly in the mid 90s for this time of the year in the Commonwealth. Those temperatures with unseasonably high dewpoints could easily attain that, and could even approach heat advisory criteria for a day or two. We can see the threshold for the 6-10 day period for "above normal MHI" is less than 95F for most of the state. This value actually appears to peak a couple weeks before maximum temperatures are achieved, as it's started to come down over the past couple of weeks. We can see in the 6-10 day period, there is an 80-90 percent chance that the heat index will peak above the 95F threshold. We can see in the 8-14 day max heat index outlook, the threshold is a bit higher. Not because that's a hotter period on average, but because there's two extra days in the period. So the threshold for what's considered an above normal MHI is higher. We have a 70-90 percent chance of reaching this threshold at some point over the period. Of course, there's some overlap in the two periods, so it could very well be on the same date. Anyways, no reason to suspect we are done with extreme heat for the near future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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