canderson Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 CTP extended the heat advisory through Wednesday night for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 22 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: There definitely is a longer term trend, but it is less drastic than people make it out to be. It's also unclear if and how much it may be related to longer term cycles. People don't handle year to year variability well. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I agree but we had trends back in the 1980s now trends in the 2020s years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 10 minutes ago, paweather said: I agree but we had trends back in the 1980s now trends in the 2020s years Here is a graph of MDT summer days that stayed 74 or below for Max daily temps. Some ups and downs but the trend line is down. This was created using 10 year moving averages to make the line easier to read and see trends vs bumps. There was a resurgence of sort from the 70's-90's before it started dropping to its current historical all-time low. The 10 year moving average is down to 4 now whereas it never got below 7 before 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Here is a graph of MDT summer days that stayed 74 or below for Max daily temps. Some ups and downs but the trend line is down. This was created using 10 year moving averages to make the line easier to read and see trends vs bumps. There was a resurgence of sort from the 70's-90's before it started dropping to its current historical all-time low. The 10 year moving average is down to 4 now whereas it never got below 7 before 2014. It might just inversely mirror the mean temp rise over the yearsSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: It might just inversely mirror the mean temp rise over the years Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk We could throw several graphs out, I picked the previous one because of my original comment about 74 in July. Here is the Mean. The high points (blue dots) since 1990'ish really drive this one home. Unprecedented except your favorite year in the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 We could throw several graphs out, I picked the previous one because of my original comment about 74 in July. Here is the Mean. So it looks like a pretty good match for inverse trend. As the mean temp has risen the trend for days at or below 74 has fallen at just about same paceSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: So it looks like a pretty good match for inverse trend. As the mean temp has risen the trend for days at or below 74 has fallen at just about same pace Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yep, even down to trend change for a bit from the late 70's to the early 90's. The high point trend confirms the overall trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Of course that storm fell apart and all I got was hot steamy drizzle Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Some light green passed overhead in radar but no sprinkles in the city. Only thing I see getting us out of this pattern is a major storm to change the atmospheric pattern. Since the Atlantic will be rocket fuel in September I think we’ll get that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Of course that storm fell apart and all I got was hot steamy drizzle Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 18Z GFS is back to a good ridge position and a wet/less hot pattern next week. Not comfortable per se just not well AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 I'm at work but it's a deluge at home. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Yep, even down to trend change for a bit from the late 70's to the early 90's. The high point trend confirms the overall trend.I think what would be interesting would be downloading the hourly observations for that KMDT time period that I currently have the daily summaries for. Extract just the July observations. Filter out any days that have measurable precipitation for 6 hours between the hours of 6am to 6pm. Then find the max temperature distribution for the remaining days. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm at work but it's a deluge at home. A little late for the colors coming out Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: A little late for the colors coming out Thur. Yes it is - this really escalated quickly. Wife reports the yard and mulch is caving to hail as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 That line SE of me exploded - wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Just now, canderson said: That line SE of me exploded - wow Yeah...the northern fringe just got us at home. @Mount Joy Snowman should be getting smoked now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Line exploded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 I'm split between rain in Lancaster and rain in Hamilton. And a shitload of nothing between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 That line SE of me exploded - wow We are shit out of luckSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 That line SE of me exploded - wow Just went out to water plantsSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 15 minutes ago, canderson said: That line SE of me exploded - wow And I'm right under it. Neighbor's tree of 15-18" base diameter down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Crushing it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Crushing it now. You have been ground zero this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 A little late for the colors coming out Thur. @canderson and I want to petition to join your desert. We need a name howeverSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: @canderson and I want to petition to join your desert. We need a name however Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk According to this...you don't belong on team drought Bubbler (or my team, for that matter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Hope everything is okay @Mount Joy Snowman - a ton of damage reports coming in from his general area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 According to this...you don't belong on team drought Bubbler (or my team, for that matter)I just looked up 1966. From May 1st through July 31st we had 1.86". Through August 31st 3.39". Also I think @canderson has lowest rain total of anyone since June 1st. I believe it's well below 1"Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: According to this...you don't belong on team drought Bubbler (or my team, for that matter) You mean with bubbler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You have been ground zero this year. I was ground desert last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Just now, Jns2183 said: I just looked up 1966. From May 1st through July 31st we had 1.86". Through August 31st 3.39". Also I think @canderson has lowest rain total of anyone since June 1st. I believe it's well below 1" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Incorrect - he had almost double what I've had since June 1st coming into today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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