canderson Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 I’ll bet all the drinks @Jns2183can make that’s wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 I had another sprinkle a minute ago!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 hour ago, canderson said: I’ll bet all the drinks @Jns2183can make that’s wrong The front timing has been varied for several days now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Was it the GFS that a day or two prior to July 4th had highs in the 70s for the LSV that day? My high was like 15-20 degrees higher than what it showed...I think it was the GFS? Regardless, there were a couple of times last week that the models really put a beatdown on forecasters. I'm not buying into this depiction but I'm also not dismissing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Was it the GFS that a day or two prior to July 4th had highs in the 70s for the LSV that day? My high was like 15-20 degrees higher than what it showed...I think it was the GFS? Regardless, there were a couple of times last week that the models really put a beatdown on forecasters. I'm not buying into this depiction but I'm also not dismissing it. It has been back and forth but not 90's on Wednesday are not a guarantee right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 lets not over do it outside the next two days. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 354 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-152100- /O.CON.KCTP.EH.W.0001.240715T1600Z-240717T0000Z/ /O.CON.KCTP.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240715T1600Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Newport, Lancaster, Harrisburg, Chambersburg, Hershey, Gettysburg, York, Carlisle, and Lebanon 354 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Oppressive heat with peak heat index values around 105 degrees this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. * WHERE...Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, and York Counties. * WHEN...For the Heat Advisory, until noon EDT today. For the Excessive Heat Warning, from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay out of the sun, and stay in an air-conditioned room. The heat may be life-threatening to the elderly and those in poor health, due to prolonged exposure without air conditioning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Low of 68. 71 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Reached a high of 95 yesterday. No precipitation yesterday. Started the morning at 71 degrees. NWS advice stay inside the next 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 All this hype about the heat index for the upcoming days, and just last week I recorded a 110 and a 113 heat index, or "feels like" temperature if you prefer on my home station. So far they say what? 105? If so, my recordings were much higher and much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Low of 72. One day I'll get rain again. Maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: All this hype about the heat index for the upcoming days, and just last week I recorded a 110 and a 113 heat index, or "feels like" temperature if you prefer on my home station. So far they say what? 105? If so, my recordings were much higher and much worse. For some places the high temp is the story vs. HI. One local station over here recorded 104 yesterday, DP was 60....HI 105, only one over the high. Whether they really got to 104, cannot say for sure but lots of 100's over here yesterday so they were in the arena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 10 minutes ago, Voyager said: All this hype about the heat index for the upcoming days, and just last week I recorded a 110 and a 113 heat index, or "feels like" temperature if you prefer on my home station. So far they say what? 105? If so, my recordings were much higher and much worse. It may be that your home station is overcooking the dew point numbers by a good bit. A common problem I have found. Didn't you say your DP was above 80 on a few occasions? Seems a bit overdone. And that's to say nothing of any air temp anomalies as well. I know I can't trust my own station during peak solar hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 19 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: That will be a great meal. Enjoy! It was! See below for a rare MJS pic..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It was! See below for a rare MJS pic..... First a nooner and now dinner pics. Time's a changin' in Mt Joy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 I’ll bet all the drinks [mention=4667]Jns2183[/mention]can make that’s wrong Timing of the frontSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: First a nooner and now dinner pics. Time's a changin' in Mt Joy? Haha yeah who knows!? Although, I still had to go through the whole rigmarole of emailing the pic from my phone to my work email and then saving it and then importing it and making sure the file wasn't too large and blah blah blah, so I don't think I'll suddenly become some prolific pic poster ha. Also, the nooner report was only because it was a cloudy/rainy day and I felt comfortable that the report was accurate. Normally I'm too embarrassed to report my midday temp because I know it's like 2-4 degrees too high. All that is to say, maybe I'm not changing after all haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Haha yeah who knows!? Although, I still had to go through the whole rigmarole of emailing the pic from my phone to my work email and then saving it and then importing it and making sure the file wasn't too large and blah blah blah, so I don't think I'll suddenly become some prolific pic poster ha. Also, the nooner report was only because it was a cloudy/rainy day and I felt comfortable that the report was accurate. Normally I'm too embarrassed to report my midday temp because I know it's like 2-4 degrees too high. All that is to say, maybe I'm not changing after all haha. If you do a PBP for today's 12Z runs describing who does and does not get MDT to 90 on Wed, then I am going to conclude something has changed. Ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If you do a PBP for today's 12Z runs describing who does and does not get MDT to 90 on Wed, then I am going to conclude something has changed. Ha. You're on! First up is the NAM, at 11am Wednesday it has MDT at 86 with the front on the approach. Edit: At 2pm MDT is 88 with the front kind of stalled out. A weak front, at that. 5pm MDT 87 and LNS 90. Would be a close call verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 72. One day I'll get rain again. Maybe. I am now over 100 days since I last had 1" of rain in a day. 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It was! See below for a rare MJS pic..... THAT - is one great looking meal! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 88 at 10:35am. Quite breezy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: You're on! First up is the NAM, at 11am Wednesday it has MDT at 86 with the front on the approach. Edit: At 2pm MDT is 88 with the front kind of stalled out. A weak front, at that. Yea, and somewhat moisture starved unfortunately. 3K does show MDT at 91 so round one to Canderson...Canderson v. Models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 The 3k NAM does indeed get MDT into the low 90s on Wednesday. As does the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The 3k NAM does indeed get MDT into the low 90s on Wednesday. As does the FV3. Concerning that the moisture part of this event seems to be flailing a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Concerning that the moisture part of this event seems to be flailing a bit. I've been noticing that as well. Was really hoping Wednesday night was going to come through for us. Should have known better ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It may be that your home station is overcooking the dew point numbers by a good bit. A common problem I have found. Didn't you say your DP was above 80 on a few occasions? Seems a bit overdone. And that's to say nothing of any air temp anomalies as well. I know I can't trust my own station during peak solar hours. I did question this the past couple of days, but comparing my station against a mercury thermometer in the shade on my back porch, the numbers are comparable. I just now looked at the NWS hourly roundup, and my current 71 dewpoint is equally comparable with all the reporting stations in the region. If it's off, it's not by much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I am now over 100 days since I last had 1" of rain in a day. THAT - is one great looking meal! Thanks mate. It really did turn out perfect. One of those rare occasions when everything comes off the grill at the exact same time and cooked just right. #MediumRare I've had one day over an inch during that time span -- 1.12" on June 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I am now over 100 days since I last had 1" of rain in a day. THAT - is one great looking meal! Seems that we cannot go a summer without major drought issues even if some get lucky some years...the overall trend, big picture, is many areas of the LSV or near go through drought every summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 I saw this over the weekend. It's the Aug-Sept-Oct temp maps. No shock to see Northeast goes from above average in Aug and Sep to well above average for many in PA in Oct. I have already brought up possibility of big storms including hurricanes in some area(s) of US on or right before election day. Now I am wondering closer to home what our weather will be on November 5. Average high/low for Williamsport on that date is 55/36. Record high/low is 77/19. We are supposed to have our hottest day today at 95, tomorrow at 93 according to wonderground.com https://weather.com/news/weather/video/your-late-summer-and-early-fall-temperature-outlook?cm_ven=hp-slot-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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