mahantango#1 Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 3 hours ago, Superstorm said: Cells keep refuting in same areas. At least some drought relief for part of County. . Indeed. Looks like the area just north of Manheim/Lititz on over to Denver and the Lanc/Berks line cashed in real nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Relief Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Indeed. Looks like the area just north of Manheim/Lititz on over to Denver and the Lanc/Berks line cashed in real nice. That must of felt wonderful today Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well...I just had Mrs. HR review the new plate. Her response to me: "What the F*** is wrong with you?" Valid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 33 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Indeed. Looks like the area just north of Manheim/Lititz on over to Denver and the Lanc/Berks line cashed in real nice. Some 1-2" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'll say it. I've always thought our state's license plate was a little...generic. Non-descript. Maybe even...boring. I like the new plate. I like it as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 46 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well...I just had Mrs. HR review the new plate. Her response to me: "What the F*** is wrong with you?" Lol, Mrs. Blizz likes the new plate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Please, please, please… DT please be right… WEEK#2(7/14-7/20): Massive mid-Summer Trough to develop across eastern Canada / Great Lakes will drop 2 Cold fronts southward across eastern US from eastern Canada. First front July 15-16 then second front JULY 17-18. The rain& storms with these fronts could be big followed by STRONG Canadian HIGH THAT WILL BRIGN ideal Mid July weather conditions JULY 18-21. Both fronts will stall across the Deep South. WEEK #3 (7/21 - 7/28) : Massive Heat Ridge pattern across western CONUS will dry to push east but the Eastern US Trough lingers across the Great Lakes & New England so extreme heat stays W of the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Anyone see State College's Facebook post? Storms and possible tornados tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 7 minutes ago, Voyager said: Anyone see State College's Facebook post? Storms and possible tornados tomorrow evening. Good. I hope one sucks me up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Good. I hope one sucks me up lol.They be coming for you Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 North of 80 tmrw probably sees several tornados. Long tracked ones along with huge super cells. Values for them are very very high. Cape is over 2000! That hardly ever happens in PA. I’d be shocked if they don’t put the northern tier and central mountains into enhanced category. SPC has TOR hatched at 5%. The LSV might even se a tornado. Though I doubt it. They’ll put us in the slight risk I’m sure tmrw late am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 31 minutes ago, Voyager said: Anyone see State College's Facebook post? Storms and possible tornados tomorrow evening. Met from MU had a lot to say about this earlier today. To echo what @candersonsaid, he expects a big threat north of I80, much smaller risk between 80 and 76, virtually no threat down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Some 1-2" totals. Not even a dusting here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: Relief Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I guess we'll see. Let's review his call in 4 weeks and see if this holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Not even a dusting here. The field next to you?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: The field next to you? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk The far end had a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Tomorrow will be the hottest day of the year. HI around 106. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Never will read this strong of wording a day before storms from CTP. “Beyond the heat, our main focus is on a potential and rare tornado "Outbreak" possible Wed afternoon (most of the central and northern CWA) and late afternoon/early evening across the Susq Valley and points east. The combination of instability and shear parameters are as potent as any I`ve seen in the last decade. With model guidance supporting a fairly unstable environment by afternoon (CAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg), and eye popping shear parameters (0-1 KM EHI as high as 3-4 M2/S2 near and north of the I-80 corridor to the NY border) several HREF and 3km NAM members indicating UH values over 150 across the N Mtns, the Wed aftn storm environment is particularly supportive of upercells and possible tornadoes” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Tomorrow's threat is legit in Upstate NY and Central PA, Beryl has already been a prolific tornado producer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 The NAM is absurd with an extreme parameter space. Verbatim, it would support a regional tornado outbreak. It has >2000 J/kg MLCAPE over the entire warm sector with >3000 J/kg near the warm front. That does not happen (rarely, if ever) in this region, coincident with highly favorable shear/hodographs. The HRRR is much more toned down, but even with it mixing out, you still see a supercell-favorable environment with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. I do realize the maps show SBCAPE, but forecast soundings show similar MLCAPE. Typically a compromise between the two models gets you close to the end solution and that is definitely a yikes. CIPS analogs is even popping a 10% contour over parts of New York. The only caveat with central PA is that as you get displaced more than about 150 miles from the low center, tornado and supercell probabilities decrease. You want to be closer to the inner core, where forcing and vorticity will be maximized. Also, with southward extent, expect veering of winds along the cold front. The shear profile near the warm front in New York looks ridiculous, but we’ll see how that works out. Warm fronts in the Northeast are notorious for being fickle in severe setups. Still, several CAMs show at least isolated warm sector storms across parts of NW into the northern half of the state. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Thanks for the detailed analysis, Quincy. I'm about 20 or so miles southeast of the I-80/I-81 interchange. Not sure what to expect as I seem to be on the edge of the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 9 minutes ago, Voyager said: Thanks for the detailed analysis, Quincy. I'm about 20 or so miles southeast of the I-80/I-81 interchange. Not sure what to expect as I seem to be on the edge of the good stuff. Very intriguing setup. I’d definitely be out if I still lived in the Northeast. Broyles just added a 10% contour in the day 1 outlook up across New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: David Tolleris says the ice age is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 I don't know what a tornado feels like, but at 6:20 AM, it feels like something could happen today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 ABC27 was saying this morning that later today that severe weather could shift south in Pa. It's something to be aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 https://junkscience.com/2024/07/exposed-las-vegas-heat-record-disinformation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 A Beryl SW Flow supported low of 78 over here this AM. First time not in the 60's in 1-2 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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